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Decoding the ACTUAL IMPACT of the INDUS WATER TREATY; and the larger picture in play.

Incomplete information about the Indus Water Treaty and its abeyance is being spread. Beyond the rhetoric, here is the story in numbers, facts, and ground realities. Before we get started, you need to understand what MAF means (million acre feet). The volume of water that would cover 1 million acres to a depth of 1 foot' is how we describe MAF. That's 2.73 times the area of Delhi (1,484 sq km).

Why is this important?

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How to interpret the Supreme Court's observations on 'Waqf Amendment Act of 2025' and 'Waqf by User'. Is it a defeat for the Modi Government? Is the scrapping of the law imminent, or is it all merely social media noise?

A complete breakdown with legal aspects factored. Whenever you hear 'Waqf by User', think of 'verbal declarations' that were made to take over private or public property. Nehru's Govt included the religious concept of 'Waqf by User' in 1954. We did not have it during the British Raj.

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A few questions on the National Herald case, beyond politics, that every common citizen must ask. These are questions of the common sense variety, so don't get confused by the jargon that will be thrown by the likes of Jairam Ramesh, musings anchor, and the Congress. Question One. AJL accumulated a lot of debt, as much as Rs. 90 Crore, but why was no one else to bail them out? Over a thousand stakeholders and none of them could get a set of promoters to keep them afloat, or better, bail them out? Even with the legacy they had as a newspaper?

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How To Make Sense of the National Herald Case

Over the next few days, you are going to witness an overdose of self-victimisation from the usual suspects in the Congress ecosystem, and therefore, let's breakdown the National Herald Case Imagine you default on a credit card from the bank. Your default amount is Rs. 50,000. You can easily ask your parents to pay it off, or your friends, or deploy your skills to earn the money in three months. Yet, for some reason, you choose to default.

Calm down, everyone. The government doesn't need to get into the cab business to assist drivers. The digital infrastructure for it already exists. They just need to create a nudge, like they did for UPI with the BHIM App. Not the app, but the protocol is what matters here. ONDC is a continuation of JAM Trinity, digital payments, and account aggregator framework architecture. For those aware of India Stack, and how it enables a level-playing digital field for all, ONDC is not an alien idea. Transaction-centric over Platform-centric is the idea.

🧵🚨On Starlink Coming To India

A lot of well-meaning folks have been talking about the entry of Starlink in India. The major contention is about whether ISRO or/and Airtel/Jio could/should have instead gone for a 'Made in India' solution. Some are terming it Modi's failure. Sentiment dwarfs real-world economics, always. Anyway, when it comes to Starlink, India had two options. Either we develop our indigenous solution, even if it takes a decade, and refuse Starlink's entry into India. We would be playing catchup with China, Amazon, etc.

I made the first visit to Haryana after the election results in the state, and had the opportunity to interact with a lot of people (in the age group of 35 and above), and here's what they told me about BJP's third-consecutive victory over the Congress. One, the people (the ones I spoke to), are quite clear. Until Rahul Gandhi leads Congress, there's no way they are voting for that party. As far as electoral battles are concerned, he's a joke for the people. People are already making up their mind to vote for PM Modi in 2029.

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Did BJP actually win Haryana Assembly Elections because of the 14 Independents who were contesting? Here's a thread, SEAT BY SEAT, proving why such an analysis is wrong and reeks of bias. A special shoutout to @PreetiChoudhry since she shared the infographic first. The theory proposed here is that had it not been for the independents on these 14 seats, BJP's tally would have been 30-35, while Congress would have been at 45-50, or even more. But did the BJP really get lucky, even if this was constitutionally correct? Let's contextualise.

The most underrated tech device you can buy for Rs. 3000.

So, last Sunday, I gave my car to service, forgetting to remove the tracker, a small coin-shaped device, that I keep in the vehicle because I live in Delhi (chances of theft, being towed away, etc.). The car came back from service, but a few hours later, I realised the tracker was missing, as my phone buzzed (it connects directly to the tracker). However, I could track its exact location on the app and continued to do so. It was still in the workshop.

🧵Kargil Diwas, Agniveer, and The Real Story

Earlier today, the Prime Minister made a very important point about the necessity of the military being young, and calling out those who made the Agniveer issue about pensions. The PM, again, addressed a problem that is decades old. I can recall that one of the Congress spokespersons had stated casually in a television debate that Agniveers are too young for combat roles. In her ignorance, she forgot the bravery and sacrifice of many Bravehearts from the war in Kargil in 1999.

Here's one way to better UPSC. Dilute the perks. No residence bigger than 2BHK for the first 10 years of service. Not more than one domestic help. No study tours or subsidy on anything, even unofficial trips. Nothing except a driver and car. Many will chicken out from the exam. If some claim that their productivity is suffering, demote them, or move them to a less important role. There is always the option of hiring more people. Ideally, only people with at least three years of real-world work experience must be hired for the top five services.

Election results in France have a lot of lessons for us. One, coalitions are being made to look fashionable. Two, ideology does not matter in a left coalition. Third, the desperation to defeat the Right overshadows personal egos. Four, fear psychosis works wonders. Imagine the impeccable mental conditioning of some people in the country while they are receiving reports of rioting by the far-left because they have won. Even then, these people are celebrating, thinking they have defeated the far-right, which had a more nationalist agenda.

🧵PM Modi In The Lok Sabha

IMHO, the most important topic that PM Modi touched upon today, even if in a couple of lines, was how the opposition is pushing some states to the verge of bankruptcy and converting them into fiscal deficit burdens on the country through freebies. Two important disclaimers. Freebies and welfare are light years apart in terms of policy formulation, implementation, and evolution. I am sharing my piece from August 2022, where I elaborated on the issue.

Modi’s Welfare Vs Everybody Else’s Freebies

swarajyamag.com/politics/modis…

🧵Congress' Plans For 2024-2029 Against BJP

Rahul Gandhi completed his first speech as the LoP ered on by the opposition MPs, grudgingly perhaps, given some of his utterances. Most of it was mud-slinging, but couple it with Kharge's speech in the RS, and few trends emerge. Congress has realised one simple thing. They only need to divide the Hindus in 150-odd seats, leave the rest of the divisions to some trusted partners (SP, RJD, TMC, DMK, etc) and consolidate the minority vote. It's that simple, and they can reach 270-odd in 2029.

🧵Some Thoughts On June 4 And Beyond;

I was in two minds when it came to penning down my thoughts on Twitter about June 4 and beyond. What finally moved me was a video that I came across today, shared by one of the most influential voices on Twitter. Gandhian spine, they say. This is my perspective, and I mean no disrespect, but amongst some of the influencers of the Right (let’s assume the generic definition of Right here), there is a prevailing inability to gauge the political magnitude of what happened on June 4; a historic day.

🚨🚨🚨 SUPER IMPORTANT THREAD 🚨🚨🚨

What is Congress' Idea of India?

Based on whatever is there in the Congress manifesto, and whatever they are saying in their rallies, let's decode what the Indian economy may look like under the Congress-Rahul Gandhi Government. Some context is needed here.

UPA-2 failed to curb an NPA crisis and opened the credit tap as per their whims and fancies for some corporates, could not start a single DBT project, had massive delays in infra projects, was not pro-manufacturing, were unable to tame inflation.

Not one journalist or anchor has called out the Congress for the disproportional loans given between 2007 and 2012. The BJP should use this opportunity to float the 2012 'House of Debt' report again, and explain the nation the credit crisis the previous government gave us. The CAGR in the banking loans for 2007-12 was around 20%, but for top 10 corporate groups, it was 40%, and for Adani it was 70+%. If anything, this government has ushered unprecedented steps against NPAs, unhealthy credit practices like loan restructuring, etc.

What is the economic model of Khalistan?

1) Defence, agri, economy, industry; all are due to the Centre
2) Panjab University is outside Punjab (always funny 😂)
3) Zero R&D ecosystem, services sector not taking off
4) Medical infrastructure is weak
5) Infra is Centre-gifted I mean, even if, and a Jupiter-sized 'if' this, a Khalistan was possible, how would they survive. 45% Hindus would exit the state, taking their money along, and whatever will be left behind would be worthless. Heck, the labourers in the fields come from UP/Bihar. What Khalistan!

At @SwarajyaMag, we are now starting with trackers. Head to the home page, and below the featured articles, you'll find a number of dashboards/trackers on all the key topics.

Here's the Punjab tracker, to get you started, with all relevant literature.

swarajyamag.com/politics/track… How can we not have a tracker on China? Follow this space for all the context on China, from real estate to politics.

China Dashboard: Beijing-Moscow Coalition Threatens Return Of The Cold War Order

swarajyamag.com/world/swarajya…

🚨 About Adani;

Last week tells me that next 15 months are going to be about Congress' pawns trying to convince you that Modi had banks giving Adani money, that Adani is sinking like Lehman, and the likes of LIC/SBI are heavily exposed to Adani so they'll sink, and you'll sink. These people aren't even creative. They are drawing their inspiration for the new toolkit from the 2008 financial crisis. They'll tell you that Adani is sinking like the Wall Street banks, was overleveraged, can't pay debt, and will take down the Indian financial system.

BBC is just the start. Indians should brace themselves for more crap from western media as the 2024 elections draw near. Can think of the usual suspects already (NYT, WaPo, Economist). Can guess the usual rhetoric already (anti-minority, inequality, Hindutva bla bla). As an Indian, neither should their praise, fake or real, come as a validation nor should their criticism, mindless or real, be seen as an attack. The core Indian voter, in their entire lifetime, won't even bother to pick up NYT for Rs.50/month or care to check what BBC says.