On Alpha and Edges in Crypto

Read this thread and you'll understand:
- The difference between alpha and edge
- What alpha is, and how to take advantage of it
- How to develop an edge, and how to build your intuition in crypto
- When to buy the dip
- And when to short the rip (haram)

Alpha and Edge are two words that get thrown around CT constantly...

But what do they actually mean?

Alpha, simply put, is...

Information you can exploit to make money with.

There are different kinds of alpha, and different edges needed to exploit it for $$.

Edge is being able to extract yield from the market, due to an understanding or skillset that the participant has, that others don't.

Edge and Alpha are different sides of the same coin.

Alpha = actionable info
Edge = being able to exploit the info

There's many variants of this, so let's break it down.

3 basic types of "alpha"

1) Time-sensitive alpha
This would be news trades and plays, and being able to take risky positions with a good probability of success.

Examples of this would be shorting Cronje leaving crypto in 2022, or longing the recent $FTT rip

2) "Mass psychology-based" alpha

Be it charts/fractals, being familiar with TA, or knowing certain fractals that occur with airdrops is a good example of this.

Buying hacks/bankruptcies often prove profitable despite fundamentals - $SOL, $FTT, $CEL, $SRM are all great examples. Heck, $LUNC provided a great return in the carnage of the last bear.

This can also be extended to GCR's killer bottom buy of $10 SOL and $1000 ETH, at the 15.7k BTC bottom.

Mass psychology was screaming contagion and worse to come - but it still hasn't arrived (yet)

3) Intuition - being able to know, feel, and forecast what will happen, with precise accuracy.

This is the hardest one to develop, and many do not have it. I have seen it in multiple CT folk, be it @outpxce and his ability to charge it to the game...

@0xJezza and what on-chain plays to accumulate, sell, and enter with very little risk of losing...

@smileycapital forecasting prices, pumps, and market trends ahead of the crowd...

@ZoomerOracle spotting the new shiny coins that outperform the market (TIA, ZETA, BEAM)...

And of course, @GCRClassic's killer takes and forecasts on the market. (Too bad you fucks made him leave last year)

Analyzing GCR's market takes, you can begin to understand how his intuition comes about:

- He combines schelling points with unit bias as well as market and human psychology on a genius level
- He has instinct built from a background in political forecasting
- Most importantly...

It's easy for him. If you have the right intuition, making money should be easy. The best plays can be the easiest ones, if you've been here long enough.

Be it buying $FTT the moment the market started pumping in 2023...

Buying $APT upon seeing $SOL starting to recover...

$BEAM rebrand, nodemonke listings, $PANDORA when it started having escape velocity...

Being able to change strong convictions on a dime to win is the way to go.

Let's get into examples on the next tweet. So far, it's been a lot of words and not as many charts and numbers. Let's change that.

Example #1: Buying any hacks or exploits when they're not a death blow to a protocol - $GMX

A whale got exploited on GMX for $4m, it's bullish selling.

https://twitter.com/0xJezza/status/1610365373882179586

守株待兔: a quick explainer

https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1726549267488420330

The easiest way to not feel FOMO imo is to understand each pump is the fulfilment of the bull market thesis, and will entice more and more liquidity to enter the space.

If you embrace the abundance of a sustained uptrend, and know you're holding the right narratives and coins:

Is $TIA the next $SOL? A pumpamentals analysis:

First learned about $TIA through the airdrop I got, and then @ZoomerOracle has been relentless in his bullishness, so I simply submitted to the narrative.

However, is there more?

How high can $TIA go?

thread in progres... 1. $TIA has a fresh chart, no bagholders, no crushed and broken dreams.

Unless you were here for all of 2021-2022, you didn't see how bad it really got for a ton of ecosystems.

LUNA as an L1 collapsed completely, dev teams had treasuries wiped out, people losing lives...

How To Reverse The Damage of Crypto Degeneracy

It doesn't matter whether you've made or lost big in gripto - if you're a degen, this thread will give you vital tips to reduce your stress levels and heal your mind & body from this market, so you can survive & make it long term. 1. The psychological and physical damage of endless screen time as a result of trading and being in crypto is underestimated, understated and underreported.

Risk on trading puts your body in fight/flight mode constantly...

How to Profit from Cults in Crypto, Consistently - A Quick Explainer To Easy $$$ (NFA)

If you can spot burgeoning cults in crypto, you will be able to catch pumps early, and exit before you become a bagholder.

You just need to do 3 simple things.

Let's get into the thread: 1. Understand fundamentals DO NOT matter for cults to form.

All that's needed are psychopathic leaders, and/or memetic communities that preach diamond hands, continued buying, and give disillusioned members of society a chance at their unresolved dreams.

> Wake up to $SUDO airdrop
> Sees big red listing candle
> apes with haste

Here's how it should play out:

$SUDO is the token for Sudoswap, the future of Finland..

(we thread at 6am for the absolute culture cuz crypto don't sleep) Where you can pool NFTs into liquidity pools, and actually volume farm with your illiquid jpegs.

Think LPs with your NFTs, basically.

What makes this good?

Well, it gives liquidity to NFT holders who don't want to wait for a wETH offer or bid...

Can Art Instruct Markets? Memes as Financial Visionaries

We get a little esoteric on a Sunday today.

If art instructs politics, politics instruct behavior, & behavior instructs markets...

& if memes are the poor man's canvas today...

Memes can instruct markets.

Thread: TL;DR
- Attention economy means that good memes will increase a token's visibility, and get new eyes on it
- Good memes for a project = good pump potential
- Unrealistic expectations need not be met - they just need to convince holders not to sell, and pumps can be manifested

You're looking at $PSI thinking it's too late

I'm looking at $PSI wanting to add more to my bags.

There are 2 plays with @TridentDAO, and let's explain them today... Play #1: The $PSI token.

This is the token of Trident, and where most of the speculation of the project will be, and on the potential of the project.

Trident is planning to flip Gamefi on its head with one simple change:

Risk To Earn.

What is $HOOK? It's a possible outperformer in the future - it has what Charlie Munger calls, the "Lollapalooza Effect"

Thread, analysis, thesis, all below: Why $HOOK?
- New mechanism (Learn2Earn) but familiar to retail - 2m active users
- Binance Launchpad (first since GMT)
- 2 token system $HGT/$HOOK reduces HOOK sell pressure
- Perps just went live (opens up gambling opportunities for degens)
- No unlocks till July

Think you can't make money in a bear market?

Well, it ain't as gloomy as you think.

Here's the plays you could have made it with this year:

(A threadooooor)

Btw, if you wanna read the long list of plays in a Notion doc, here you go: cloud-slash-78c.notion.site/Bear-Market-20…

Let's dive in: 1. GCR's public short of LUNA and the bet against Do Kwon in May.

A 50% down short on enough leverage would've printed big, or even just 2x with a good enough size would've added a ton to your portfolio: