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G Raghuram Profile picture
G Raghuram
@UntergrundmannG
Figuring Stuff Out | Veteran | Theoretical Physicist | Engineer #MentalHealth #SZA #CPTSD [Alumnus: NDA/IMA | CME/MCTE | DoP, UoPune | IIM, Bangalore | QSSB]
Apr 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'd consider to be a bad example, given that people - at this point in time - knew of P&M as an option to handle scale and/or enlarge it.

What happens in cases when this "solution" is not yet known? Such as the first time such anarchistic principles hit scale.
+ They might stumble upon some version of centralized P&M. They could just as well decide that enlarging scale further risks losing character/essence of the social organization and stop there. They could also figure out a way to break up scale i.e. decentralize it.
+
Sep 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What I did (wouldn't consider it a 'recipe' yet) ~ soaked around 2/3rds of a cup (the size in the pic) of dal in about 3x water with salt (to taste) and a third of a tsp of haldi. For abut 40min.

Chopped up 4 cloves of garlic fine and an inch (maybe a little less) of ginger...+ ...real fine. Also sliced up some 5 green chillies (not length-wise).

After the soak, pressure-cooked the dal for around 15min (reduced the flame after the initial steam release) and let it cool off on its own. Used a wooden buttermilk whisk (the traditional kinds)...+
Sep 11, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Had picked up a great BT speaker from @MonsterProducts some 4Y ago, not used the last year or so. Randomly tried to charge it last week to discover that it'd charge but would not hold for more than 5min.

Mailed the Co to be informed that servicing/battery replacement...+ ...would not be possible. Hated the thought of throwing away an incredibly good sounding speaker. So, figured I'd troubleshoot it myself.

Everything else worked fine, while on USB cable/power. So it had to be either the battery or the charging circuit.

+
Aug 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is funny and true, but on reflection, it hints at something tragic ...

The "types" this thread describes are deservedly out from those who can move/shake the GoI - mostly a bunch of people who thought they were as good as the Brits and masked their attitudes ... + ... under a professed desire to working for "progress" of the "Indian people". They couldn't care to know what we're like on the streets or in the hinterland. Or, maybe they did and which is why they wouldn't really care. And thus mostly "governed by proxy".

The problem ... +
Aug 6, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
This illustrates tokenism and half-measures taken to the extreme. And a large part of the problem is the teaching community in these IIsT (and the like).

When you think of Reservations for a particular class of people, you also have to anticipate the problems ... + ... they might face in adapting to the expectations of making it to and thriving in an atmosphere they have no exposure to (socially/culturally).

"If you got in here, you're expected to *get it* on your own and by yourself" - does not cut it. And it's self-serving AF...
+
Aug 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Done reading. Seems a bit out of date, with the references to "blogs", but it isn't. What it describes is now mainstream media practice.

Excellent read. Helped affirm intuitions that built up in me over the past 3-4 years as well as fill in gaps re: the mechanics.
#MustRead
+ Image Also helped assert a sound basis to some rules I've found myself adopting online e.g. on here:

If anything is a trigger, I refuse to act on it. The check is always what I feel - if angry, outraged or shocked, the reflex-in-training is to feel the emotion and Do Nothing.
+
May 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
#COVID19India

This is something I observed at the first dose as well, at a fancy hospital for a paid appointment.

Out of three, there are two stages which take time, one of which could be eliminated, if the GoI wanted. More on that later.

Registration takes ...+ ...between 5-15 minutes. Typically, there seems to be only one registration desk per centre. The injection takes less than 5 minutes. A 30 minute observation wait is mandated.

The numbers of *immediate* AEFIs following injection suggest an infinitesimally minuscule risk. +
May 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

TPR > 40%: GA
TPR > 30%: DL,WB
TPR > 20%: CH,CT,HP,HR,KA,KL,MH,MP,RJ

TPR growth negative for CT, DL, MH, MP, UP
+ #COVID19India: Summary View

Weekly Case Growth
> 40%: AP,AS,HP,JK
> 30%: GA,OR,TN

*Negative for CT, DL,GJ,MH,MP,TG,UP

Average of 15% with a max of 52%

*Validate with testing growth/CFR
+
May 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Most states now have their latest TPR > 10% (contra WHO ref level of 5% and below). Average now risen to 19%+ on the higher side of the inner 1st-3rd quantile range from 14%-23%

TPR growth negative for CT, DL, JH, MH, MP and UP
+ #COVID19India: Summary View

Weekly case growth > 40% for AP, AS, HP and JK and > 30% for GA, KA, OR, TN

*Negative for CT, DL, GJ, MH, MP, TG, UP

*Validate with Testing growth and lagged CFR rates
+
May 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Removed UT from the list due to testing data issues.

Latest TPR shifts higher to the range 5%-41% with most states in the band 13%-23% with an average of 19%

TPR growth very high for AS, HP, JK and KA. Negative for AP, CT, DL, MH, MP and UP
+ ImageImageImage #COVID19India: Summary View

Case growth drops to a Doubling of 50D or more for a number of states - BR, CH, JH, RJ, TG - and is negative for CT, DL, GJ, MH, MP and UP

Continues to rise for the rest in the range 0.5%-54% with an average of 18%.

> 40% for AP, AS, HP and JK
+ ImageImage
May 2, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There are certain matters on which - for the survival (or a better future) of the collective - everyone (aka those whose survival is not threatened) contributes to or invests in. Education, Public Health, National Security are three well understood cases.

Those who ...+ ... argue stupidly for "free markets" in these contexts haven't , quite clearly, thought through any of this and so end up betraying their immature understanding of how markets and societies generally function.

It can also be considered a form of insurance by/for those...+
May 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#COVID19India

I suffered brain damage late last night, having read the original pre-print. Read this simple explainer by @MenonBioPhysics instead.

The "model" is a bit like an astrologer's prediction. When the 'Mangal Muhurat' doesn't arrive, he says it's some Rahu-Ketu...
+ ... and shifts his prediction and says something else. And when that fails as well, then he adds some other variable which has behaved unpredictably. You get the drift, if you're an Indian.

The problem though, is NOT that they're not epidemiologists. The issue is that ... +
May 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#COVID19India

Quite frankly, I don't (and couldn't know). I've mucked around from simple to ensemble #ML models over the last year, only to realize that something this complex cannot be modelled or predicted.

However, you can pick up what's happening, currently, based...
+ ... off the standard epidemiological metrics - changes in trends, TPR, testing rates, recoveries etc. And what that means in terms of the near and medium-term horizons.

The most sensible benchmark would be TPR declining or levelling off against testing rates that are rising...
+
May 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Large TPR rises in most states, with the exception of AP, CT, MH and MP where it's negative.

Average TPR rises above 17%, in the range 3% to 34%. Most states between 11-22%
+ ImageImageImage #COVID19India: Summary View

MH is the sole state with a negative weekly case growth.

CT, DL, MP and UP seem to have achieved the case doubling rate of 50 Days or more. However, this can only be validated by growth in testing.
+ ImageImage
Apr 30, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Average TPR for the states rises to 16%+, ranging from 3% to 33%

MH, AP, CT and MP register negative TPR growth over the last week. Average TPR growth is 30% ranging from 13% to 116% for the states where it's rising.
+ ImageImageImage #COVID19India: Summary View

MH, CT, DL and MP register a case doubling rate greater than 50 days viz. containment. This has to be seen against growth in testing accompanied by a decline in TPR.

Average weekly case growth for the other states ~ 40%, ranging between 28% to 98%.
+ ImageImage
Apr 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#COVID19India

This is another important read from @nature that highlights the problems with and limitations of R[t] and makes a case against over-reliance on it, especially for public policy wrt *easing* restrictions and return to 'normalcy'.
+
nature.com/articles/d4158… The important takeaway is to understand the asymmetry in decision-making against the uncertainty implicit in this metric (aka what we cannot know).

If R[t] is rising above 0.9, should we enact restrictions? - is a VERY DIFFERENT Q, from the PoV of risk - than ... +
Apr 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Latest TPR for most states has increased. The inference is that the spread continues unchecked and/or testing has been reduced. Average TPR rises to 16%.

MH, while lowest, registers a mild rise in TPR over the last week. CT is the sole negative.
+ ImageImageImage #COVID19India: Summary View

Case growth for MH over the week is NIL aka no change. CT and DL both have doubling rates > 50 days and have the lowest case growths.

For the rest, it ranges from 30-130% WoW with an average of 46%
+ ImageImage
Nov 11, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
Experimenting a bit with lights on a greyscale render ...

#Mandelbulb3D #fractals Developed it to this ...

#MandelBulb3D #fractals
Jul 13, 2020 • 15 tweets • 14 min read
#Covid19India

Checking in on the hybridForecast I'd done eleven days back, with the daily new case counts ...

We're currently at day 123 on the timeline. 25K/day was estimated by end of July. We're already past that.

+ Expected | Current Actuals

AP: ~ 800 | 1700
AS: ~ 1000 | 650
BR: ~ 400 | 850
CH: ~ 5 | 12
+

Jul 11, 2020 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
#Covid19India

The heuristic employed is that a higher test positivity indicates a higher count of missed infections, which makes sense. If testing were increasing effectively to capture new infections as they arise, positivity should decline.

+ #Covid19India

Extending the same method to the testing/daily case reports for the States of India ...

Daily Test Capture | Estimated True Cases

AP: 1500 | 3500
AS: 750 | 2000
BR: 600 | 1800
CT: 150 | 170 (Last testing data NA)

+
Jul 10, 2020 • 32 tweets • 29 min read
#Covid19India: State of the States:
Daily Deaths | New Cases | Recoveries | R[t]

AN: 0 | 6 | 4 | R[t] Not Computed
+ Daily Deaths | New Cases | Recoveries | R[t]

AP: 14 | 1300 | 1100 | >> 1.00
+