i was once an institutional man
#uranium + #nuclear fan
Jun 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A small thread #uranium#resources
"Macro"-economic style investing is tough. As we roll into this week's FOMC meeting, it appears as though 0.25% (a mere fraction of the 8.6% headline inflation) will govern the next 100+ pt range in $SPX. Who really knows where
The overall markets go in the near (1-6 month) term? We have crypto melting down, an unfriendly Fed, bonds not providing the reliable risk-parity hedge that can be monetized and re-invested into equities. Oil is careening up, JGBs look tenuous, the yen is slowly walking to 150,
Jun 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A good joke about economists -
A chemist, neanderthal, and economist are trapped on an island. There's no food, except for an opportunistically placed can of Goya beans. They all brainstorm how to open the can so they don't starve.
The chemist says, "I can create a corrosive material out of sea water and other available ingredients. We can corrode away the top of the can and get at the beans inside."
May 21, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Some Friday ramblings
Recession is here. $WMT, $COST, $TGT all prevaricated their way around shoddy earnings - it was freight! Cost inflation! Food & fuel!
In their declining sales you see the elasticity of discretionary consumption. Prices are high and going higher - the Fed will wreak havoc on financial assets but real carbon shortages (PADD 1 distillate is particularly grim) won't be tamed by 50 bps
Yes, SMRs may be a few yrs away. @NuScale_Power's first SMR will be operational in 7 years, which isn't "decades away." Conventional nuclear plants are used the world over, and if you hadn't noticed the trend, are increasingly sought after
For views such as this I only ever work in back-of-envelope. Sustaining capex changes / cost inflation, commodity financialisation (blow off top?), mgmt decision to do CR, prognosticating about health of credit markets in '23/'24
Make it nigh impossible for a guy like me to credibly assess cost of debt/equity or unforeseen costs in LH maintenance.
So with fairly draconian cost assumptions and conservative earnings multiple this is where I see $PDN share px for different #uranium contract px's
Apr 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Quick thread with some math on why this matters for all newer #uranium folks:
Feedstock uranium is usually enriched to 3%-5% of U-235. Say you tail 0.1% by weight (i.e., waste material)
Let's produce 1 kilogram of EUP. Let feed assay = 0.7% (how much of the to-be enriched material is U-235), and a tails assay of 0.1% (waste material).
Uranium for fuel is enriched to 3%-5% usually so let's use 4% as the target product assay.
Apr 23, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Whole thread is good, have a look
A lot of flow reasons to indicate last wk’s slugging may have been the worst of it (particularly in XME/XLE/etc.)
@Sprott takes over $URNM #uranium etf on Monday. Lining up to coincide with a bounce - may be indistinguishable in cause vs flows
But they will look like magicians lol. They earn a fee for ETF AUM. In their interest to increase both inflows and value of underlying. If you wanna see where anything goes in the markets, look at the incentives…
Apr 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Just to be clear what the NYSE @Sprott#uranium listing will do for us 1) Hedge funds have liquidity requirements (measured in avg daily volume or top of book size/depth) for new positions. NYSE much larger than TSX and ceteris paribus, more volume invites more players
(cont)
2) No reason why a NYSE listed product shouldn't have listed options. May have a grace period (I think IPO -> options listing is 5 days for new issuances?)
Dealer hedging + gamma exacerbate vol but as we all expect... call volume will outpace
(cont)
Apr 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold […]
“That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.”
Mar 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
I'm no attorney... but new @natlawreview article says OFAC will likely bar 'new investment' (any payment or credit) in the Russian energy sector (including "refinement, [...], conversion, enrichment, transport, or purchase of [...] #uranium (in any form)"
