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Kirk H. Sowell Profile picture
Kirk H. Sowell
@UticaRisk
Utica Risk Services: Arabic-language services firm, MENA risk analysis | Focus: Iraq, Levant, GCC | For my Arabic account, see @muhallilajnabi.
Dec 19, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
So this is a summary of *initial* results with over 40% of results in, just watched live on al-Iraqiya TV. Details subject to change, but key points:

- Establishment/Shia Islamist dominating
- Tishreenis doing poorly
- incumbents doing well across Iraq. I'll structure this around three key points:
(1) Establishment/Shia parties did very well, with Hadi al-Amiri's Nabni being top Shia bloc in most southern provinces. Maliki's SLC top in Muthanna & right behind Nabni in most places.

A change from 2021: Amiri outperformed Maliki.
Jul 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The Shia Framework coalition's PM candidate, Muhammad al-Sudani, hits both of the criteria that seem to be required for Iraq's prime minister: be a trusted Shia political insider, and be politically weak. A few comments to follow on Sudani recent political past.🧵 Sudani held several ministerial posts under both Maliki and Abadi, was long with Maliki's State of Law Coalition, & following the late 2019 protests he declared himself independent of the SLC and a candidate for PM. His then-recent break with Maliki appeared opportunistic.
May 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday's decision by the Iraqi Supreme Court defining the powers of a "caretaker government" in a limited manner overturns what Sadr, Halbusi & the KDP (the "Triple Alliance") have been doing to keep the Kathimi govt going. Back to square one.
drive.google.com/file/d/1RQYUdz… Sadr's "Plan A" was to form a "majority govt" he would dominate. That failed when they couldn't get over the hurdle of needing 220 MPs for quorum to elect a president. Then "Plan B" was to just "empower" the Kathimi govt to keep going through ad hoc votes in parliament.
Nov 7, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
It may be tiresome to point this out, but this AM's attack on PM Kathimi's home was actually the second time this year he has been threatened by militias at home. In May armed groups aligned with Iran stood outside his home with guns, threatening him.
For AR readers who want to review the previous incident, this describes what happened. The two militias named were Abu Fadl al-Abbas & Ashab al-Kahaf.
alquds.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84%D…
Nov 6, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Re the recent escalation in at the GZ in Baghdad, let's remember this is the 2nd time an Iraqi faction has threatened to blow up the political process related to this election, not the 1st - Sadr threatened to do it over the summer. During the period when Sadr was boycotting the election, there was a real chance the election would be postponed bc out of govt Sadr would have been a threat. A political process w/o Sadrists was unthinkable, & the worry was that Sadr would constantly resort to street pressure.
Oct 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Coalition of the Whining: Allawi, Abadi and Fayyad join those doubting validity of Iraq's election results.
alquds.co.uk/%d8%a7%d9%84%d… I suppose the first point to make here is that Allawi said openly several times in interviews before the election that he had stopped campaigning because it was all a fraud and there was no point. His daughter, Sara Allawi, still campaigned, but not Allawi himself.
Oct 12, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some nuance here from Ahmad al-Asadi on Fatah Alliance's "rejection" of the announced results. He emphasizes they are not claiming fraud in the vote, but incorrect announcement of selective, partial results as if they were final.
Aware of skepticism many will have of an alliance of groups with armed wings, Asadi is at pains to emphasize that their opposition to the announced results will be solely through peaceful, legal means.
Oct 11, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
What makes this easy is that IHEC's website was terrible beforehand. It looked good in terms of technical design, but in doing research before the election we found it to be useless. Information of outdated and limited in terms of precise info on candidates by district. This is state TV al-Iraqiya's live feed of information dripping out from IHEC.
Oct 10, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
So #Iraq had parliamentary elections today. We await results which are expected w/n 24 hours.

The one result which can be announced is that participation was low. Precise % not released yet, but talk from Iraqi journos is that optimistically they hope it will exceed 40%. The other observation from multiple sources - some others here on twitter have also noticed this - is that participation from the youth was very low. Participation from older Iraqis appears to have been respectable.
Nov 29, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Regarding events in Iraq today: first, this is the text of Abd al-Mahdi's "resignation" statement. I would encourage media to be careful about using the word "resignation" to the extent that implies AAM has left or will imminently leave office.
pmo.iq/press2019/29-1… My take is that this is the end of the beginning of this crisis, not the beginning of the end. AAM simply says "I will submit my formal resignation" to parliament, after noting that he said he was ready to resign last month. There is no clear rule parl't has to accept it.
Oct 16, 2017 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
A few comments to follow on political dynamic driving federal Iraqi forces move into Kirkuk, now largely complete today. First, the operation which began Thurs/Friday was telegraphed ahead of time by PM Abadi as an operation to restore joint control in Kirkuk.