1/ It is true to say “lack of manpower hampers the Russians—but that is only part of the story. Doing intelligence analysis demands we break big problems down. Why Putin’s “Partial mobilisation” and call up of reserves is unlikely to be decisive: a thread🧵 2/ In short: generating combat power is more than just about numbers. We can use the “Components of Fighting Power” and the “Defence Lines of Development” to understand this better.