Founder EKOS Research. Adjunct Research Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology Carleton University . Views are personal not those of EKOS Research.
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Apr 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our final poll will not be nearly as surprising nor pilloried as the series of polls we submitted starting in mid January showing the massive CPC lead evapourating by the end of January and the LPC moving into what appeared to be a majority position a month later. This has been the largest transformation of the voter landscape in Canadian history
We knew what was driving this and it was not 'low engagement" ; it was a visceral recoil from Trump 2.0 which saw MC as the most compelling option to tap burgeoning concerns with national identity and economic sovereignty. Expectations of Trump 2.0 were pretty low but over 70% said it was way worse than the humble expectations they had before watching the cavalcade of shocking announcements and appointments
Feb 25 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
We're triple checking numbers and adding cases to ensure proper representation of key subregions but results are on pattern with trajectory we first identified in mid January . It's no longer a question of whether LPC can close the gap. It's now a question of whether CPC can recover.
Not only are LPC now in slight lead but they lead in Ontario, PQ and Atlc. Also tied for lead in BC. This without impact of an random experiment on mentioning current leaders and 'if' Mark Carney was leader. This provides a clear boost in what was already majority territory .
