Recently two of my good friends, the head analyst at Glassnode (@_Checkmatey_) and head on-chain analyst at Ark Invest (@dpuellARK), created a new methodology to evaluate Bitcoin's economics called Cointime.

I've broken it down into simple digestible terms:

[THREAD 1/12] The basis of the entire framework is the following:

Coins x Number of Blocks Held = Coinblocks

Ken Griffin is one of the most polarizing names in finance. His firm Citadel is the most successful hedge fund of all time, posting $66 billion in gains since inception.

Here's how he went from trading out of his dorm to amassing a fortune worth over $30 billion: From a young age Ken Griffin was deeply interested in markets and after trading his personal capital throughout his teenage years.

In 1987 Griffin traded convertible bond arbitrage from his Harvard dorm room at the age of 19 where he even had a satellite to stream price feeds.

Recently I've been studying the greatest traders of all time.

Steve Cohen is one of the most infamous figures on Wall St. The billionaire and Mets owner even has a TV show called Billions written around him. Here are some takeaways on what made him so successful.

[THREAD 1/10] Cohen had a love for markets from a young age, and after graduating from Wharton traded in the options arbitrage division at Gruntal & Co, generating the firm $100K a day.

Eventually, Cohen decided to launch his own hedge fund SAC Capital in 1992.

Recently I've been studying the greatest trades of all time.

Here's the story of how Paul Tudor Jones tripled his money by predicting one of the biggest stock market crashes of all time and became a legend:

[THREAD 1/11] This is a great story of a contrarian trade from PTJ that utilized a combination of fundamental, technical analysis, and understanding of market infrastructure; solidifying him as a legendary figure on Wall Street.

Over the last few days I've been studying the most famous trades of all time. Arguably the most legendary trade ever was when George Soros broke the Bank of England, giving him his immortal financial reputation.

How'd he do it & how much did he make in the process? [THREAD 1/12] Soros's trade was rooted in his recognition of fundamental imbalances in the British economy. This is a great story of government market manipulation versus prevailing relentless free market forces.

For the data nerds, here's how to have ChatGPT create you charts/visuals with no coding experience: First ask GPT to write you a Python script and specify what type of chart you want, where to pull the data from (file on your computer, API, etc.), axis' labels, etc. The more specific you are the better.

It will output code for you to copy.

Working on MSTR report for clients. Near-term MSTR FUD is misleading. MSTR is a profitable business with favorable debt structuring.

The only BTC that *could* get liquidated is the Silvergate loan, but Saylor has plenty of BTC to top up collateral if LTV falls below 50% (~14K). Saylor's liquidation price is approx $3,200 per BTC.

$410 million (to maintain 50% LTV) / 130,000 BTC = $3,153

The 50 IQ Sushiswap turnaround thesis, a short thread: Some of the best thematic trades over the last 2 years involved minimal thinking. For ex: ETH fees high, alt-L1s gud.

One of the consistent use cases of crypto is it being a casino. & Where do you go to gamble on the most illiquid of illiquid alts? Dexes. This is not going away.

Important to monitor the BTC derivatives market. For the time being, longs have been piling in on every move up in price.

This is not what we want to see for a full on trend reversal (similar to the end of July 2021). We want to see participants conditioned to "fade" rallies. & no I'm not hindsight tweeting. These things are indeed actionable in real-time.

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1575870554262757377?s=20&t=te770gsClLNpvXDXOPUE8w

Everything you need to know about the current state of the Bitcoin market

[THREAD 1/35] Bitcoin is currently 70% from its all-time high in November of last year, one of its deepest corrections throughout its short 12-year lifetime.

Bitcoin is an exponentially growing monetary network that should be expected to reach 1 billion active users in the next decade.

[THREAD] All disruptive technologies go through an "S-curve" of adoption, reaching their main growth phase after roughly crossing the 10% threshold.

For the past few months, I have been saying it's a great time to DCA heavily.

Now I believe Bitcoin is very close to a multi-generational galactical pico-bottom where I plan to allocate all of my dry powder for my grandchildren's grandchildren.

Let me explain below: We are very close to realized price, which is the aggregated cost basis of investors. This currently sits at $24K.

Quick thread sharing some brief thoughts on the current state of the market To start, the fixed-income market is selling off aggressively, with the 10Y yield breaking out of a multi-decade long downtrend.

Equities are generally inversely correlated to yields because of DCF models. The higher the 10Y yields, the lower equity valuations go.

Illiquid supply shock with ANOTHER leg up. This was the one we saw 2 weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1504449211504513029?s=20&t=pm6pruYFqR_snrfIb7Wvew

Illiquid Supply: What does it mean? How is it calculated? How do you use it?

[THREAD 1/11] First thing's first, what is supply liquidity in on-chain terms? How is this defined?

Following long-term Bitcoin holders on-chain

[THREAD 1/11] A long term holder (LTH) is an entity that has held its BTC for >155 days or 5 months (155/31 = 5 months)

Why is this the threshold? It is not arbitrary. The longer a coin is held, the less likely it is to be spent; but 155 days is where this likelihood drops significantly.

Understanding a cornerstone of on-chain analytics: Coin Destruction/Dormancy

[THREAD 1/14] First, let's start with what does coin days destroyed mean? How is it calculated?

Explanation of Perpetual Swaps: Open Interest, Premiums/Discounts, Funding rates, Liquidations

[THREAD 1/15] First things first:

@woonomic So you’re saying on drawdowns, when financing drops, funds long perps instead of spot to maintain delta neutral positioning for cash/carry? That makes sense but still ballparking/guesstimating how much of that OI would be potentially from that behavior.

Also (1/2) @woonomic How do you reconcile the lack or any long liquidation event given that we’ve been in a regime of positive funding/premium with no reset + high L/S ratio?

From on-chain perspective I’m just as bullish as you for 2022 as you know when we talk privately.

(2/3)

We've been tracking the macro price reversal since summer using on-chain. Now what clues can it provide us in our effort to identify the macro price peak over the coming months?

First we'll start with behavioral trends and then everyone's favorite, price targets.

[THREAD 1/22] Over the summer, we tracked the re-accumulation phase, as supply flowed to strong hands, made possible by a slew of new supply-related metrics.

One of the early red flags I'll be looking for is a sharp decline in illiquid supply shock ratio and highly liquid supply shock ratio.

A thread on one of the cornerstone concepts in on-chain analytics: Coin days destroyed/Destruction For simplicity purposes, let's say I buy/withdraw 1 BTC to my wallet. I decide to hold it in that wallet for 1 year, that coin has now accumulated 365 coin days.

At the end of those 365 days, I send the BTC to an exchange to sell, 365 coin days have now been destroyed.