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Walker Harrison Profile picture
Walker Harrison
@WalkWearsCrocs
Now: quantitative analysis, @Yankees // Then: MS in statistics @Duke, content for @IBM, @ThePracticalDev // Always: blogging about data, missing lefty layups
Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Last night my friends and I attempted to take part in a timeless American ritual: watching a bunch of NCAA Tournament games at a sports bar.

Unfortunately we stumbled into one of the least competitive 2-hour stretches of basketball in recent March Madness Round 1 history. ⬇️ This is what a good game looks like. The y-axis is the eventual loser’s win probability at various junctures in the game.

Exciting games have teams hovering around 50% win probability or blowing win probabilities that are close to 100% Image
Feb 18 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
This flowchart shows my results from simulating NFL playoff overtime, a hot topic since the Super Bowl.

My numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive, which aligns with research done by @bburkeESPN and @StatsbyLopez .

Details⬇️ Image I'm also attaching this version of the chart with a legend, which is slightly less twitter-friendly. The methodology is:

-Receiving team kicks XP on first possession
-Kicking team goes for two down 7
-Defensive scores not shown (happens about 1% of time) Image