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Warren Risk, Crisis, Intelligence Consulting
@WarrenRisks
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Feb 11, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov has confirmed on television that the expected Russian offensive has commenced. As we previously posted there are no indications this is anywhere as large as some reports have articulated. Ukraine: NATO Chief also confirming Russia’s new Offensive is underway.
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…
Feb 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine: Early indications that Russian forces are in the early stages of the next major offensive with air/missile strikes overnight and a large number of strategic bombers up. Energy infrastructure targets overnight with power outages in the east. Ukraine: Whilst we have seen reports of significant Russian mobilisation and deployments for this next offensive, it’s most likely Russia will continue its focus initially on the pushes around Bakhmut, Kreminna and Vuhledar.
Feb 9, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine: Reports Ukrainian Air Defence Systems are active engaging Russian drones tonight in multiple regions. Ukraine: Reports Russian strategic bombers are up and active on comms too. Airstrikes reported by drones tonight so far, missile strikes likely.
Jan 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Syria: All indications are this was an Israeli drone strike. Syria: Shafaq are reporting Israeli strikes hit 25 vehicles. Our own sources report concealed weapons movements some inside refrigeration HGVs were targeted as they stopped for a meeting exchange and only circa 4-6 vehicles targeted with 3 strikes.
shafaq.com/en/World/Israe…
Jan 28, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Iran: Reports of a large explosion within a military technical development complex in Isfahan tonight along with a number of other suspicious explosions across other provinces 👀 Iran: Reliable information of blasts reported in Khoy, Azarshahr and Karaj via @no_itsmyturn
Nov 28, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes remained far more limited yesterday and overnight mostly targeting infrastructure and military targets in the southeast and south central areas. 2. Russian VKS activity increased very slightly across the southeast with some Close Air Support sorties.

Ukrainian airforce activity also increased yesterday, with a number of SEAD Ops targeting Russian vehicles, a command post and resupplies.
Nov 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes continued to be far more limited yesterday and overnight focusing mostly on military targets in the south and southeast. 2. Russian VKS activity was far more limited yesterday too, likely associated with deteriorating weather and depleted munitions and maintenance parts. Russian logistics and resupplies across all areas continues to struggle.
Nov 26, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes were limited yesterday and overnight with military installations, weapons systems and Ukrainian force concentrations the primary targets. Most were in the southeast, but an airfield was also reportedly targeted in Kharkiv Oblast. 2. Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut and was intensive at times on the front lines north of Donetsk. Heavy shelling continues in and around Kherson with ongoing shelling exchanges across the Dnipro river to the north.
Nov 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes were limited yesterday and overnight after their last widespread strikes this week continue to cause significant power interruptions in many areas. 2. Russian shelling was mostly more sporadic in most of the impacted regions yesterday, with intensive phases on and north of Kherson.
Nov 24, 2022 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian forces conducted widespread air/missile and drone strikes yesterday shortly after the European Parliament adopted a resolution that recognised Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. 2. Targets were widespread in the south, southeast, central, Kyiv and Lviv regions and the casualty count is high.
Nov 23, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight remained more limited and were mostly in the southeast and south. Another hospital was hit, this time in Zaporizhzhia with reports of casualties on a maternity ward. 2. There are concerns and reports Russia may be about to construct a false flag operation in the Belgorod Oblast, likely to claim NATO weapons attacking Russia and or to rally domestic support for the invasion as mobilisation and morale proves increasingly difficult.
Nov 22, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight were again limited and mostly in the southeast. The Bakhmut region was again targeted late yesterday by Russian missiles after Ukrainian airforce strikes targeted Russian forces earlier in the day. 2. We continue to anticipate significant widespread waves of Russian airstrikes with missiles and drones in the coming days.
Nov 16, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday were significant and widespread, reportedly targeting energy infrastructure, military installations, weapons systems and civilian infrastructure. Kyiv, Lviv and other regions in the west were part of Russia’s strikes. 2. These were not the anticipated intensive combined waves of strikes with newly supplied Iranian missiles and drones, we still anticipate those in the coming days. These were mostly Russian precision cruise missiles, suggesting resupplies are ongoing.
Nov 15, 2022 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian forces continued to conduct fewer air/missile and drone strikes yesterday despite our ongoing analysis that intensive waves were likely in the coming days. 2. The majority of impacts were in the southeast and southern central regions and targeted military and energy infrastructure.
Nov 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes continue to be far more limited. The majority of impacts yesterday were in the south central and southeast regions. At least one interception was likely. 2. We continue to anticipate that further intensive waves of airstrikes will be executed by Russia in the coming days and believe Russia may be awaiting its Iranian supply of ballistic missiles and more drones.
Nov 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes remained at the lower quantity yesterday and overnight, with further energy infrastructure targeted in the Vinnytsia Oblast and other impacts reported primarily in the southeast. 2. With the Russian withdrawal of Kherson seemingly underway, the waves of intensive combined strikes we have anticipated may be seen in the coming days.
Nov 10, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile/drone strikes remained more limited yesterday and overnight, but with the Russian withdrawal of Kherson now publicly announced by a Russian Commander the waves of intensive combined strikes we have anticipated may be seen in the coming days. 2. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was targeted heavily by Iranian drones yesterday with at least one interception reported, most other impacts were in the south and southeast.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes remained more limited yesterday and overnight, and were mostly in the south and southeast.

Russian VKS activity continues to be far more limited and is primarily in the southeast. 2. Ukrainian aircraft continued with airstrikes yesterday destroying further Russian vehicles and resupplies. Ukrainian long range artillery continues to strike Russian ammunition depots and defences especially in the south around Kherson.
Nov 4, 2022 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes increased from yesterdays report, with the southeast and south targeted mostly. There are reports of at least one interception. We have still not seen the wave of more intensive strikes we anticipated this week yet. 2. Russian shelling continued to be intensive around Bakhmut, but was mostly more sporadic yesterday in the other impacted regions.
Nov 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes continued to be more limited yesterday and overnight. 2. Russian VKS activity decreased the last 24hrs likely related to weather in some regions. The Russian VKS has been far more cautious throughout their invasion when it comes to poor weather.
Nov 2, 2022 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile and drone strikes were far more limited yesterday and overnight and mostly targeted the southeast. 2. There are reports the more intensive waves of combined strikes we have been anticipating, may be postponed due to delays in receiving further drones and missiles from Iran.