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Chris Wilson Profile picture
Chris Wilson
@WilsonWPA
Head of data: @NvrBackDown24-AAPC Pollster of yr (2021)-C&E Tech Leader of yr (2019)-Husband to Steph Dad to 5-Grateful for Grace-Stroke survivor-CEO @WPAIntel
Jul 26, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
To be blunt: bad polling is distorting the understanding of 2024

The worst offender is perhaps Mark Penn’s (Team Hillary) Harvard-Harris poll that’s often cited by the media bc of the "Harvard" brand.

1) The polls are trash. A thread...
 Image 2) First, the poll has a basic methodology issue:

Matching panelists to the voter file is expensive, which is why most public polls don’t.

Penn uses an unverified panel. Fine in corporate market research, but doesn’t work for politics where a point can make a difference. Image
Jul 20, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
While I really try to avoid being critical of other polls, this one requires comment due to bad actors treating this poll as if it is real. Here’s what we know about Kaplan: 1) Kaplan did favorable polls for FL Democrat gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried (we know how that turned out)

2) this poll “memo” is basically a press-release with no methodology, but digging deeper we learn:
May 10, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Our team at @WPAIntel analyzed public research (not our polling) on the impact that Donald Trump had on down-ballot races in 18 and 22

From this, it is clear Donald Trump would be, in layman's terms, a disaster for Republicans in competitive seats as the 2024 GOP nominee
🧵 A 2020 study by Ballard et al. found that Trump endorsement had a "meaningful negative" effect on the endorsed candidates’ general election performance in the 2018 midterms.

By their estimation, Trump cost Republicans a at least 15 seats (11 in the House and four in the Senate) Image
May 8, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Dems won Blacks +73 in 2022. WaPo has Biden +15 w/ Blacks v Trump. That’s obviously wrong.

Dems won Hispanics by 21 (historically bad). WaPo would have us believe Trump loses them by just 9, tying W (who spoke Spanish) as the best ever for Reps w/ Latinos. Highly unlikely. Image Dems won 53% of women in 2022. WaPo has Biden winning just 44% of women in 2024 v Trump. Not happening.

Dems won 49% of NPAs in 2022. Biden isn't winning only 34% of them in 2024 v Trump. ImageImage
May 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
We took a closer look at the ABC / Washington Post poll.

If you want to believe the poll, it shows serious problems for Trump.

However, a closer look at the data shows serious problems with the poll.

Here's a thread highlighting both. Image 1) Team Trump should be troubled by a poll showing DeSantis beating Biden by the same margin

Why? DeSantis has lower name ID than Trump

It also undermines their "only Trump can win" tp as they have turned on the Pro-Life community since Gov DeSantis's heartbeat bill Image