EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH ELECTION NIGHT THREAD First, let's discuss East Baton Rouge Parish. This is one of the three largest parishes (the other two are Jefferson and Orleans), and it contains the State Capitol, LSU, Southern (which is a HBCU), and the ExxonMobil refinery/chemical plant.

POLLING MISSES OVER TIME THREAD 1. FLORIDA: Understated Trump margin 2.3% in 2016 and 4.9% in 2020/3.6% average understatement

2. NORTH CAROLINA: Understated Trump margin 3.5% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2020/3.4% average understatement
2a. 7 day avg of NC polls shows Trump up 48-47%
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SC GOP THREAD Ill be posting much more tonight, but I thought Id throw out an "appetizer":

Trump 2016: 33%
Trump + Cruz: 55%
Moderates (Jeb! + Marco + Kasich): 38%

In other words, the Trump 2024 vs the Trump + Cruz 2016 numbers are what I'll be watching

LESSON FROM LOUISIANA'S ELECTIONS

Coalitions matter. A LOT. EXAMPLE 1: PSC RUNOFF

This was a two Democrat race between a progressive Baton Rouge candidate and an "Establishment" New Orleans 18 year incumbent. Couple of lessons here:

1. As a member of a body regulating utility rates, you already have a tough job. Which was
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LOUISIANA RUNOFF THREAD While the polls won't close for 9 more hours, thought I'd give some highlights on the major races today I'll be following, starting with my home parish of East Baton Rouge:
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GEORGIA EARLY VOTING MATH THREAD
12/2 AM

Democrats started the week with a massive advantage (a 46-38% black/white plurality with an 182K EV volume) before all 159 counties could vote. Since then, they've largely done well with EVing. What about yesterday?
(1/) 1. Mon ONLY:323K,54-34% white/black
2. Tue only:329K,57.5-31% white/black
3. Wed only:315K,59-28% white/black
4. Thurs only:324K,58-29% white/black
5. While Wed/Thurs have been more favorable for Reps, they're digging out of an 833K EV "hole" (like what happened in PA)
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GEORGIA EARLY VOTING MATH THREAD
12/1 AM

Until Sunday night, in person early voting was coming almost exclusively from "Blue Georgia." Yesterday was the third day in a row that all 159 counties early voted, and turnout AGAIN was strong. Who benefitted ?
(1/) 1. Before all of GA EVd Mon, total was 182K EV+VBMs/46-38% black/white (not a typo)
2. Mon ONLY: 323K, 54-34% white/black
3. Tue only: 329K, 57.5-31% white/black
4. Wed only: 315K, 59-28% white/black
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GEORGIA EARLY VOTING MATH MADE SIMPLE

Why does the racial composition of the early vote matter so much ? For a couple of reasons. First, the obvious: the Peach State is in the Deep South, and it has a substantial black population.
(1/) And in the Deep South, the bulk of the Democratic voter base is from the black vote/having a strong black turnout, bc when you combine that with more moderate/liberal voters in metro Atlanta and Savannah, the bottom line is a 50/50 electorate.
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GEORGIA EARLY VOTING MATH THREAD
11/30 AM

Until Sunday night, in person early voting was coming almost exclusively from "Blue Georgia." Yesterday was the second day in a row that all 159 counties early voted, and turnout AGAIN set records. Who benefitted ?
(1/) 1. Before all of GA EVd on Monday, the total was 182K EV+VBMs that were 46-38% black/white (not a typo)
2. Mon's volume (mail + in person) was 323K, 54.4-33.6% white/black
3. Yesterday was 329K, 57.5-30.8% white/black
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SWING COUNTIES IN GEORGIA RUNOFF (THREAD) In the Senate race, Warnock led 49.4-48.5% over Walker. Which counties therefore "matter" the most, in terms of crossing the 50% line ? There are 2 different ways JMC looks at this: (1) the "Kemp gap", (2) counties showing the most affection for the Libertarian candidate.
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NOVEMBER 2022 GEORGIA BY VOTE TYPE (THREAD) In the November "primary", Brian Kemp ran 5% ahead of Herschel Walker/Raphael Warnock ran 3.5% ahead of Stacey Abrams. Here's how the vote went by vote type:
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STATE OF THE HOUSE, VI

I'm using CNN (and the Oregonian for OR CD5) for race calls, which shows Reps up 212-200. Adding in who is AHEAD would make it a 221-214 Republican House. Here is where we stand regarding when the 23 uncalled districts were last called:
(1/) Of the 23 uncalled races (again, according to CNN):

2 hasn't been touched since Wed AM (CA6, NY22)
15 haven't been revised since yesterday
6 were updated today
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NEVADA EARLY VOTING, 11/5
@RalstonReports

In person EVing has ended, but mail is still coming in, and we now have Week 1+2 data from the NV SOS (which was TWICE revised yesterday :)). As well as yesterday's VBM numbers for Clark/Washoe (that's 88% of NV).
(1/) The 11/4 cumulative statewide numbers were as follows:

IP:283,934 (49-31% R/D)
MAIL:345,004 (45-29% D/R)
TOTAL: 628,938 (38.3-38.27% D/R)

Next are 11/5 ONLY VBM numbers for Clark and Washoe

CLARK:28,372 (49-21% D/R)
WASHOE: 5,152 (40-29% R/D)
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NEVADA EVING
@RalstonReports

The challenge here is you have a very decentralized reporting system with a LOT of manual entry into the weekly SOS report which only there can you see rural data (although Elko County does post on its website more frequently).
(1/) I've also found that what's in Clark and Washoe is never the "final word" (like NY's "final final final certified results"). Given all that, here is what I did:
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GEORGIA EVing, DAY 2

1. Turnout was off the charts: more than doubling from 135,593 (Day 1) to 291,740 (Day 2);
2. The black % on day 1 was VERY high (38.5%) on Day 1 (this includes IP AND mail).
3. However, the black % on Day 2 dropped. More specifically, the CUMULATIVE
(1/2) (3 contd). black % between Day 1 and 2 went from 38.5 to 35.8%. IOW, the Day 2 ONLY number was 33.4% - a 5 point plunge in ONE day;
4. 33% black IS a robust number, but a drop that steep in one day makes me wonder how much of Day 1 was a "sugar high" as opposed to anything
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2022 EARLY VOTING TRACKER, 10/17 VERSION

(1) +243K additional mail requests-total VBM requests at LEAST 16.4M now
(2) +535K more voted, from 2.08M to 2.62M - VA has "caught up" with its posting, FWIW.
(1/4) (3) 1 wk ago,mail requests (ie the "voter pipeline") were 11.2M/53-27% D/R. Now 16.4M/48-29% D/R.
(4) Similarly, those VOTING 1 wk ago:694K/52-32% D/R. Now 2.62M/53-31% D/R
(5) About 87% of total EVing from mail, 13% in person
(6) GA's IP EV started yesterday, 124K voted
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RHODE ISLAND PARTY REGISTRATION CHANGES

While Democrats are almost completely dominant in the Ocean State, it from time to time (like MA) elects GOP Govs/Sens. And for a while, Inds were the "plurality party" in terms of voter registration. However, last month saw a
(1/3) Democratic spike in registration. From doing basic research, my understanding (RI experts can correct me if incorrect) is if you're an Independent and vote in a party primary, your voter registration is switched. RI had its primary on 9/13, where 78% chose a Dem ballot.
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2022 EARLY VOTING TRACKER, 10/3 VERSION

(1) +783K additional mail requests-total VBM requests at LEAST 6.3M now
(2) +29K more voted,from 113 to 144K-that 144K includes 52K who in person early voted in VA
(3) Still waiting on information regarding votes cast in IL/MI/ND/WY
(1/3) (4)1 wk ago,mail requests (ie the "voter pipeline") were 45-24% D/R.Now 53-26% D/R (big Dem spike by adding NJ/PA).
(5) Similarly, those VOTING 1 wk ago:53-16% D/R. Now 58-21% D/R (NJ/PA "spiked" numbers)
(6) With 8 states' in person early voting now, there will be a lull
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2022 EARLY VOTING TRACKER, 9/26 VERSION

(1) +312K mail requests from FL/GA/NC/PA/SD/VA (new) - total VBM requests at LEAST 873K now
(2) Total voted quadrupled, from 7.3 to 30.7K (VBM from FL/GA/NC/SD/VA(new)) - that 30.7K includes 16.7K who in person early voted in VA
(1/3) (3) Still waiting on data from MN/NJ/PA/VT/WY
(4) 1 wk ago, mail requests (ie the "voter pipeline") were 49-18% D/R. Now 45-24% D/R.
(5) Similarly, those VOTING 1 wk ago: 55-14% D/R. Now 53-16% D/R
(6) In 2 days,IL/MI/ND start in person voting.FL will mail out its ballots
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FLORIDA TURNOUT THREAD This is a last compilation of the night for Mail, In Person, and EDay. Tomorrow AM, the SOS will probably have even more current numbers for Mail

EXHIBIT A FOR VOTING

Since 2020, the basic voting equation is this: Mail is most Dem, In Person more Rep, and Election Day is most Rep.

Heavily Democratic Alachua County is a perfect "Exhibit A" for that. 38 minutes into voting, here's how the partisan split lines up:
(1/2) MAIL: 73-27% Dem
IN PERSON: 63-37% Dem
EDAY: 54-46% Dem
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