The Election Wizard 🧙‍♂️ Profile picture
Follow #TheElectionWizard the latest election forecasting. Followed by @realdonaldtrump’s Twitter guru, @DanScavino. #Election2020 #ElectionTwitter 📈📊📉🇺🇸🦅
Mother Goose Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
24 Oct
Democrats wanna cancel everything:

-Conservative Twitter
-Tucker Carlson
-Cops
-American History
-Religion
-The Constitution
-J.K. Rowling
-baby it's cold outside
-Christoper Columbus Day
-The National Anthem & Flag
-Guns

and now their latest victim:

fossil fuels.
There’s so many damn things I left these two off the list:

-Paw Patrol
-Live PD
Well hell, I forgot #Christmas.

They wanna cancel Santa and Rudolph too.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
#Democrats are panicking today because the early vote margin in #Florida dropped below 400k.

Why is it essential that Ds maintain a 400k advantage going into Election Day?

I'll break it down for you.

#Election2020 (1/6)
We know how many votes are remaining in FL because the state doesn't have same-day registration.

Remaining voters:
GOP: 3,486,163
DEM: 3,192,888
N/3/I: 2,990,862

(2/6)
Rs will match or exceed (mostly likely exceed) their '16 turnout, which was 81.2%. D turnout in '16 was 74.4%. That's R +6.8.

Now, here's why Ds are worried. If 81.2% (conservative figure) of Rs turnout on Election Day in #Flordia, Rs will exceed Ds by 450,000 votes.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
23 Oct
Reliable Data Points Indicating a #Trump Victory:

(1) Voter registration shifts towards Republicans in battleground states

(2) Large Republican participation rates in non-competitive Trump primaries.

[1/3]
(3) Gallup: more Americans say they are better off today then they were four years ago

(4) Gallup: most Americans expect Trump to win

(5) Gallup: tightening of party affiliation

[2/3]
(6) Trump is receiving higher donations (2:1 or more) than Biden in key working-class counties in battleground states

(7) Search engine and social media trends favor Trump

[3/3]
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
🏝#FLORIDA EARLY VOTE 🍑

#Republicans Expand Lead!

Cumulative total:
Republicans 483,443 (+ 90,913)
Democrats 392,530

Data: Florida Division of Elections (10/22 08:29 AM ET)

#Election2020  #election
MASSIVE REPUBLICAN SURGE:

Yesterday, REPS lead in the early by 40,000. Today, they’ve more than doubled their lead in the raw. Impressive!!

I would not be shock at all to see the Republican lead to increase to 100,000+ today.

@LarrySchweikart
Alachua
R 3,422
D 7,242

Brevard
R 20,659
D 12,157

Broward
R 22,173
D 43,158

Clay
R 14,438
D 4,557

Collier
R 13,324
D 4,898

Duval
R 29,352
D 37,507
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
I got sick of seeing people be manipulated by phony polls, and not just in the US, but across the world. 🤢

So, I took to #Twitter to provide people with better methods (primary participation rates, registration trends, enthusiasm gap, etc) for forecasting elections. (1/4)
I ❤️ my followers.

First, you guys are really smart. If I make just the slightest mistake, you’ll find it and point it out, and I appreciate that about you. ✅

Second, this page is like a giant brain spread across the country, even globe (hello UK #Brexit friends). 🌎🇬🇧
(2/4)
You all share a tremendous wealth of intel from highly localized demographic points to real-time reports of yard signs.

It’s a forecaster’s dream having access to this info, data points that many polls totally miss or pass off as irrelevant.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
I generally like CHSA, but their weighting/representation is off.

Prediction: Bice will carry #OK5 easily.

(1/4) Image
In 2014, Ds gathered 145k votes. The R winner gained 160k.

In 2016, Rs carried OK5 again 160k-103k.

Then in 2018, Kenda #Horn won by 121k-117k in the raw.

What the hell? Did the district dramatically shift to the left?

(2/4)
Answer: 40,000 Rs stayed home!!! They got complacent.

Has central #OKC drifted blue? Yes, but not enough to impact this race in the way Ds hope.

In 2016, Rs maintained a ~19k vote advantage in OK-5 registration. Today, Rs lead in registration by ~28k (9,000 net gain).

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
✅ Properly Comparing the Early Vote:

Reading the crystal ball on the partisan split and raw data is NOT useful because it's unreliable. Don't believe me? Look at Arizona in 2018. Rs WON the early vote but LOST Election Day and thereby lost the election. There are more examples.
EV is useful for comparing what the polls predicted w/ actual behavior...

So, let's take a gander at what the polls predicted the early turnout would look like and see how that compares with the current results.
Polls predicted a ~25+ point spread favoring Dems:

(1) Gallup showed Ds slaughtering Rs 62-28 (34 pt spread)

(2) YouGov showed Ds hammering Rs 65-40 (25 pt spread) tinyurl.com/y6azllgc

(3) NPR/Marist showed a 25 pt spread for Ds. tinyurl.com/yxec56jg
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
Because of #COVID panic, Team #Biden put all their eggs in one basket: vote by mail.

Ds thought everyone, even people who haven't voted in decades, would all of sudden VBM. Wrong.

Meanwhile, Team #Trump sat up an extensive GOTV effort and knocked millions of doors.
Democrats are panicking. They worried about cannibalizing their Election Day vote. At the current rate, they need to be running +25-30 ahead in the early and VBM to offset the Trump Election Day onslaught.
More troubling for Ds, in the past three days, Rs have closed the early and VBM margins in FL, NC, MI, and PA.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
Why are polls are so unreliable???

Is it bias? Conspiracy? Poor methods?

Well, it's complicated. But I'll try to explain.

(1/17)
#Polling has drastically evolved. The dawn of modern election Polling began in 1936 after #Gallup successfully predicting Roosevelt would win. The polling of that era consisted of in-person interviews conducted by a professional interviewer to minimize nonresponse bias. (2/17)
Each interviewer was given a highly detailed set of sampling quotas to meet. The quota sampling was nothing more than a systematic effort to force the poll sample to fit a national profile. (3/17)
Read 18 tweets
17 Oct
🚨Wizard Predicts: #Biden will win Miami-Dade County by a lower margin than Hillary due to an increase in turnout for #Trump among Cubans and Venezuelans.
Latest tends show Biden is performing slightly better in the Tampa Bay Area as compared to Hillary...
But Trump is doing better than he did in 2016 along the Atlantic Coast and widening his margins in north central FL, the panhandle, & SW FL.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
The latest early voter data from Wisconsin’s WOW counties show Trump is improving on ‘16 margins. This is key because R’s in those counties drifted away from him in 2016. It appears R’s are coming come.
If Trump can improve in the WOW counties and make modest gains in counties like Crawford, Grant, Marathon, Wood, Waupaca, Douglas, Ashland, Sawyer, he can carry Wisconsin. The offset Biden is receiving in counties like like Columbia and Sauk will not be sufficient.
Trump does not have to max out support in Racine or Kenosha counties. He only needs to be keep it competitive in the far southeast, so long as he makes gains in the North Woods & southwestern.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
Why in the hell is the SDNY prosecuting Steve Bannon??? Even if we assume Bannon committed a fraud -- which he did not -- the SDNY has no jurisdiction to prosecute the case. It's an unconstitutional abuse of venue. The Bannon matter has no legitimate connection to NY.
Bannon's Build the Wall was not based in NY, it didn't operate in NY, it wasn't organized in NY, it didn't bank in NY, and the wall was not being built in NY.
All SDNY can do is to point to a few donors in NY. But those NY donors *do not* complain about being defrauded. The SDNY is abusing the federal venue statutes.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
If Trump wins the election, and the objective data points suggest he will, the first presidential debate will be viewed by historians as a success. It accomplished what it was meant to do — drag Biden into street fight, and make him look weak and unhinged. @Barnes_Law
What the Ben Sharpio’s of the world don’t understand is that Trump’s debate strategy was never about persuading them. It’s about convicting the plumber in Bucks County that Biden is weak and unable to lead. @Barnes_Law
Biden needed to look presidential and in control. Instead, he took the bait and played at Trump’s level. Same strategic error Marco Rubio made during the primaries. You don’t beat Trump by fighting him on his terms. @Barnes_Law
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
THIS IS WHAT A HERO LOOKS LIKE:

Pictured is the female LASD Deputy after she and her partner were ambushed. She took ONE bullet to her jaw. Her partner was shot twice in the head. She was able to radio for help & apply first aid to her partner.

The NFL should STAND for her. 🇺🇸
She’s STANDING after being shot in the jaw. 🇺🇸

That requires a level of mental toughness the NFL kneelers will never know.
Read 5 tweets
10 Sep
It’s weird how NBA players can look solely a degraded and shaky cell phone video shot a long distance away, and conclude the short video clip is incontrovertible proof that the police were brutal and racist. @ScottAdamsSays
The NBA’s Replay Center is impressive. Each play is captured by multiple HD cameras. When a replay is triggered, the center can quickly review every camera angle, make numerous video enhancements, and consult with a bevy of experts to determine if the ref made the right call.
Yet even with all those resources, NBA players still sometimes dispute the center’s final rulings on the video.

But they never dispute the conclusion that the cops were racist bullies on video. After all, the whole thing is on video, they say.
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
It’s amazing how NBA players can look solely a degraded and shaky cell phone video shot a long distance away, and conclude the short video clip is incontrovertible proof that the police were brutal and racist. @MattWalshBlog
The NBA’s Replay Center is impressive. Each play is captured by multiple HD cameras. When a replay is triggered, the center can quickly review every camera angle, make numerous video enhancements, and consult with a bevy of experts to determine if the ref made the right call.
Yet even with all those resources, NBA players still sometimes dispute the center’s final rulings.

But they never dispute the conclusion that the cops were racist. After all, it’s all on video, they say.
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep
Radical Left absolves individuals of moral responsibility on the basis of race and treats them as victims of societal circumstance. As Latch wrote, the Radical‘s “Bigotry of Low Expectations” degrades victims by reducing them to mere objects of pity. @Barnes_Law
This problem is no more clear than in the context of officer-involved shootings: When a white man is killed by the cops, the Radicals apply high standards of respect and personal responsibility to the suspect.
But when a Black man is killed by the cops, the Radicals apply a less exacting standard. This is the “Bigotry of Low Expectations.”
Read 6 tweets
31 Aug
- George Floyd

- Michael Brown

- Eric Garner

would be alive had they not resisted arrest. When you resist arrest, you foolishly gamble with your life.

If you lose the gamble, that’s on you.
For nearly a decade, the country has obsessed over how the cops can improve. Of course the cops can get better, but that’s only one half of the equation. These events are a two party transaction. — the officer and the citizen.
It’s past time that we focus on both sides of the coin. Why not try to make cops better while also trying to make citizens better? What the hell do we have to lose?
Read 6 tweets
30 Aug
@lawyer4laws I’m interested in your thoughts. I think the President has the statutory authority to deploy the Nat’l Guard over the objections of local official pursuant to his authorization from Congress under the Insurrection Act.
While Congress has enacted various posse comitatus restrictions on the military, there are a number of exceptions, especially when it comes to the Guard. Plus, nothing in the Constitution expressly forbids the President’s action.
To me, this seems like a classic setup for Category-1 case under Youngstown Steel. 

BUT to me, the million dollar question isn’t whether the President can act, it’s whether he *should* act.
Read 10 tweets
30 Aug
@ScottAdamsSays @JackPosobiec Although the President may have statutory and constitutional authority to declare the riots an insurrection, I think the voters should reap what they sow. Perhaps they’ll chose better mayors and governors next time.
@ScottAdamsSays @JackPosobiec Why should the rest of the country bail them out???

Elections have consequences. If you vote in radical left politicians, you’re going to get radical left polices. That’s on you — the voters — who elected the radicals.
Read 9 tweets