My article “The Gathering Storm”, published in DAWN on 19th August, 2006.

The Gathering Storm

A New York Times article (August 9, 2006) comments that “moderate reformers across the Arab world say American support for Israel’s battle with Hezbollah has put them on the defensive, tarring them by association and boosting Islamist parties. The very people whom the United States wanted to encourage to promote democracy from Bahrain to Casablanca instead feel trapped by a policy that they now ridicule more or less as “destroying the region in order to save it.”

The issue is not just limited to the Middle East. Here at home, the government and the “mainstream” political parties, notably those belonging to the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), have to do a lot of serious thinking and soul-searching about the growing radicalisation of political thinking from Indonesia to Morocco, spurred by an unashamedly and almost blind support of the United States to the recent Israeli aggression against Lebanon.

The issue of military’s role in Pakistan’s politics has been the subject of ARD’s charter of democracy and the military has been blamed for not allowing the growth of democratic institutions and practices, but military’s dominance of our history is closely linked with our foreign policy under which the army has always sought aid from the US in exchange for the support and help in achieving the latter’s strategic objectives in the region.

The US-Pakistan defence relationship has served the US foreign policy interests while enabling the US to keep a strong grip over Pakistan’s domestic polity. Obviously, Pakistan is not an isolated case where the US policy makers supported corrupt, autocratic and incompetent regimes to further their strategic interests. The democracy and development in the US-allied states (e.g. Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia) took a back seat as the US sought reliable partners to pursue its global and regional foreign policy goals. It is in this context that the present debate about army’s role in our political history needs deeper examination.

While the ARD’s charter and a letter to President Musharraf written by “distinguished citizens”, that included former heads of ISI, have received a lot of media attention, it is quite interesting that almost none of the opposition parties or for that matter, the “distinguished citizens” have commented on the US-Pakistan Army nexus that has been a critical factor in sustaining prolonged periods of army rule in Pakistan.

Now another group of prominent citizens has written a similar letter to the president. If we are going to have a truly representative government and an independent legislature and judiciary, are we going to have an independent foreign policy? Or can we have a democracy and an independent foreign policy?

The Israeli actions juxtaposed with Dr Condoleezza Rice’s declaration of a “new Middle East” may prove to be the beginning of a new era in the Muslim and Arab countries where for any government or political party to support US foreign policy in the region would become a political liability. Sensing this mood, even the otherwise moderate and pro-US King Abdullah has spoken. In an interview with the BBC (August 8, 2006), he criticised the international community for only offering a piecemeal way of dealing with the crises in the Middle East. He spoke of a region that was being radicalised by the growing support for Hezbollah as it fought back Israeli onslaught in the just-ended war. The moderates, he said, were being marginalized. The BBC correspondent, who interviewed the king, said it was clear that countries like Jordan and Egypt, who have close ties with the United States and peace deals with Israel, feel deeply worried, if not threatened, by this crisis.

1/n Here in Pakistan, unless the “moderate” political forces can provide a model of democracy and development that does not depend on US military and economic assistance, their ability to provide a viable alternative to the military or autocratic rulers, is likely to be seriously tested in the coming years. The challenge seems greater now than compared to any other point in post-cold war period. It would be naive to assume that the US (under neo- conservatives or democrats) would actively support the “moderate” political parties in their demand to hold free and fair elections to establish a truly representative government.

The Bush administration’s brief honeymoon with a vision for democracy in the region is already over for all practical purposes with the election of Hamas in Palestine. More importantly, the prospect of a Hezbollah-dominated government in Lebanon is a thought scary enough for any US government to entertain any ideas about representative rule in the region’s countries.

Let’s now come to what is really wrong with the premise that the mainstream parties appear to operate upon: the route to power goes via Washington. The trouble is that Pakistani’s elites tend to attribute all happenings to America, which is not as powerful and as omnipotent as they think it is. No doubt it is the sole superpower but let us look at the facts. Its Middle East policy, if there is one, is in tatters. It has failed to impose democracy on Iraq, which is closer to an all out civil war. Syria and Iran are openly defiant and hostile and old allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are visibly cool.

It is remarkable that leftist leaders are back in command in many South American countries (in America’s backyard) and have won elections despite their anti-US stance on a range of policy issues. President Lula in Brazil [the largest economic power in the Western Hemisphere], Chavez in Venezuela [the fifth largest producer of oil from whom the US imports 12% of its crude oil requirements] and Evo Morles in Bolivia [one of the world's largest producers of coca, the raw material for cocaine] have won elections in the recent years despite their leftist policies. Chavez even thwarted a coup attempt, which had American support.
And in Mexico, Lopez Obrador of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party came close to winning the last month’s presidential election which he lost by 244,000 votes; a result which has triggered civil disobedience by his supporters since last two weeks.

But wasn’t Latin America the first to the embrace the New World Order and undertake large- scale privatization starting in the 1980s? Weren’t the US - supported economic reforms supposed to transform the Latin economies into prosperous democracies? Then why are we witnessing the revival of the populist leaders right under the nose of Uncle Sam?

One of the leading and most respected US economists, Paul Krugman, who teaches at Princeton University and has been called ‘the most celebrated economist of his generation’ by the Economist, writes about the Latin American experience with economic reforms and privatization in his latest book, The Great Unravelling: “the actual results have been mixed. On the economic side, where hopes were initially highest, things have not gone too well. There are no economic miracles in Latin America, and there have been some notable disasters, Argentina’s crisis being the latest. The best you can say is that some of the disaster victims, notably Mexico [a close US friend], seem to have recovered their balance (with a lot of help, one must say, from the Clinton Administration) and moved onto a path of steady, but modest, economic growth......so while the US may have hoped for a new Latin stability based on vibrant prosperity, what it actually got was stability despite economic woes, thanks to democracy. Things could be lot worse.”

2/n

Pakistan: Growing fiscal deficits and lower tax revenues led to record levels of government borrowings in the past six years.

Budget Deficits Pakistan's Tax Revenues Have Not Grown since 2018 In Real Terms (Nominal Growth minus Inflation Rate) and Tax to GDP ratio Declined

Why a government of experts? 1/8 Why a government of experts? 2/8

We are losing the international competitive race 1/n The population growth rate is higher, the median age is 19, inflation and poverty rates are highest in the region

Pakistan is a multi ethnic society and a country with provinces with unique characteristics and issues. My 4D strategy includes devolution and deregulation. It is through these two that we need to empower the provinces and local governments to be the 1/n

https://twitter.com/yousufnazar/status/1779110997090766987

primary vehicles of key services of education, health, streets, sanitation, & local policing. Provinces should be able to take measures to attract foreign investments. Local governments should be able to collect property taxes to fund the provision of basic services. A % of 2/n

The ideological debate in Pakistan, if there is one, tends to oversimplify the issues with liberal use of the jargon such as democracy and dictatorship, neo-liberalism and socialism. Capitalism played a critical role in making America 1/n the richest and most powerful country in the world. Admittedly, there is not just one market model. There are striking differences between the Japanese version of the market system and the German, Swedish, and American versions.2/n

The hybrid setup is doomed to fail. Incompetent and ineffective establishment-backed government VS competent & effective establishment-backed government. That is the choice we have because we have not had a completely democratic government even after Ziaul Haq died in 1988. 1/n Some pundits' answer to every problem is political stability & civilian supremacy. We may have to wait 30-40 years to have it. What do we do NOW is the question. 2/n

I have seen many blaming Bhutto for starting the Mujahideen operation. Daud started the provocation immediately after his coup in July 1973. Rabbani has been head of Jamiat-e Islami of Afghanistan since 1972 and active in student politics since 1968. When Daud moved to crush the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… It should be noted that by the 1970s, Afghanistan was in the Soviet sphere of influence. 40% of its budget was foreign-funded. The Soviet Union was the largest foreign aid donor. Bhutto had refused to back the US in Vietnam War and was intensely disliked by Johnson. Bhutto… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

There was nothing wrong with the nationalisation of heavy industries which represented around 20% of the industrial base in 1972. Many were built with subsidies and concessional financing. Some were in red. Post 1972, the state invested heavily in cement and fertiliser- a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… The sales of all nationalised industries also increased from Rs. 1,428 million in 1972-3 to Rs. 2,349 million in 1973-4 - an increase of over 64%. At a constant price level of 1969/70, the economy saw the relative share of total public sector investment sharply rise from 12.6% in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

As Bangladesh Became Free on Dec 16, 1971, a Secret London Conclave Mooted Balochistan's Liberation m.thewire.in/article/diplom… @MaryamShKhan Another interesting read by another Indian scholar is My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal amzn.eu/d/gXiWPjb

Thread on Education:
Why must education and technology be the top most national priority both in the immediate future as well as in the long term? We can look at the rest of the world for answers.
Between 1909 and 1949, when the U.S. economy doubled its gross output per hours of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… On the other hand, India’s homegrown instant payment system has remade commerce and pulled millions into the formal economy. The scan-and-pay system is one pillar of what has been described as the country’s “digital public infrastructure,” with a foundation laid by the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

۱۹۷۹ کے اخبار ات کی سرخیاں ، ۴ اپرلُ۱۹۷۹ کو بھٹو صاحب کو پھانسی دے دی گئی. انکے آخری الفاظ تھے : “مالک مدد میں بے گناہ ہوں”.

https://twitter.com/YousufNazar/status/1640318405071757315

Supreme Court has been sitting on a presidential reference on ZAB's judicial murder for 12 years. It is hard to take SC judges' claims about justice seriously given the judiciary's long and dark past and its role in the darkest chapter of Pakistan's post-1971 history; the hanging… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

“Here’s How Chief Justice’s Suo Motu Powers Undermine Democracy”, writes Hassan Niazi, a lawyer based in Singapore, in this article for the series: Is There A Way Forward For Pakistan? Hassan did his LL.M. from New York University where he was dissenttoday.net/featured/heres…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… “Suo motu power was created through judicial activism. It has no basis in the text of the Constitution, and it had not even been mentioned by the Supreme Court when it framed its own rules in 1980”, writes Singapore-based lawyer @Hassan_A_Niazi in @DissentToday

Pakistan’s economic crisis can be analysed in many ways. Many start from the twin deficits & point to the obvious: overspending and heavy dependence on imports. This approach is flawed in that it focuses on what is their in the national accounts but not what may not be there 1/n I recall the time when I had an army of analysts working for me and analysing stocks. My advice was anyone can look at the financial statements and make projections but only a handful outperform the market. Those few look at the bigger picture, understand the mega trends 2/n

If Pakistan is to move forward and have any hope of catching up with the rest of Asia, it will have to move beyond Jinnah and Iqbal. This is 2023 and a lot has changed. Nations that don’t embrace change fall behind. It must think about what went terribly wrong, when, how? 1/n Here are a few points to think. For most of its history, Pakistan has been governed as a centralised authoritarian state although it came into existence as democratic federal state. First blunder too place just days after partition. Jinnah dismissed the duly elected govt of 2/n

There is a lot of debate on the exchange rate. Manipulating the rate is a bad idea, and having multiple rates is even worse. How Pakistan's real effective exchange rate and imports have behaved. This is simply a graph that shows these two. Please study this & comment 1/2 Imports were stable around the $44-45bn range during 2013-2016 despite an appreciation of the rupee in real terms. In 2017, imports rose by $8bn to $52.9bn & to $60.8bn in 2018. 70% of the rise in the import bill was accounted for by energy products, capital equipment 2/3

Energy crisis lies at the core of the present economic crisis. No doubt economic crisis is just one aspect of Pakistan’s much bigger multidimensional crises, in brief, state failure. I see no other alternative but to seek a rescheduling of FC loans owed by the power sector 1/2 , mainly to China/Chinese banks. This should be the first step in the restructuring of the power sector. The foreign currency debt should be replaced by local currency debt and the equity of the IPPs should be bought by the govt as part of overall restructuring of the power 2/n

I am putting here a recently published article that many could not access due to the paywall.
Pakistan is facing a multi-dimensional crisis, probably the worst since 1971 when it broke up after the Bangladesh war. 1/n The crisis is overwhelming for Pakistan’s army establishment and political players and there is almost a universal sense of the lack of direction. Last week, Pakistan’s prime minister and army chief visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pleading for more aid 2/n

#Pakistan is likely to continue the current military-dominated hybrid system of governance for the foreseeable future. The military is unlikely to gamble on Imran Khan. PMLN has lost of ground. Sharif brothers are ageing and Maryam won’t be able to keep the party united. 1/n PPP under Bilawal will lose ground in Sindh and is not going to be a significant force in Punjab. The weakening of the political forces will help the military establishment to tighten its grip. But it has a poor understanding of the economy and has no appetite to listen, so 2/n

Dr Iqbal’s letter to THE TIMES, Oct 1931: “May I tell Dr. Thompson that in this passage I do not put forward a demand for a Moslem state outside the British Empire, but only a guess at the possible outcome in the dim future of the mighty forces now shaping the destiny of”1/n the Indian sub-continent. No Indian Moslem with any pretence to sanity contemplates a Moslem state or series of States in North-West India outside the British commonwealth of Nations as a plan of practical politics. 2/n

Why only the constitution not army can keep Pakistan united & stable? Pakistan has faced the challenge of creating a viable national political unit out of the remnants of a former colony that is a patchwork of ethnicities, tribes, and linguistic 1/n groups united only the common experience of shared foreign rule and geographical proximity. Since it is not a country with a homogenous population, it can be a tenable state in the long term only through a social contract via a constitution. In the U.S., diverse ethnicities 2/n