We are losing the international competitive race 1/n The population growth rate is higher, the median age is 19, inflation and poverty rates are highest in the region

Pakistan is a multi ethnic society and a country with provinces with unique characteristics and issues. My 4D strategy includes devolution and deregulation. It is through these two that we need to empower the provinces and local governments to be the 1/n

https://twitter.com/yousufnazar/status/1779110997090766987

primary vehicles of key services of education, health, streets, sanitation, & local policing. Provinces should be able to take measures to attract foreign investments. Local governments should be able to collect property taxes to fund the provision of basic services. A % of 2/n

The ideological debate in Pakistan, if there is one, tends to oversimplify the issues with liberal use of the jargon such as democracy and dictatorship, neo-liberalism and socialism. Capitalism played a critical role in making America 1/n the richest and most powerful country in the world. Admittedly, there is not just one market model. There are striking differences between the Japanese version of the market system and the German, Swedish, and American versions.2/n

The hybrid setup is doomed to fail. Incompetent and ineffective establishment-backed government VS competent & effective establishment-backed government. That is the choice we have because we have not had a completely democratic government even after Ziaul Haq died in 1988. 1/n Some pundits' answer to every problem is political stability & civilian supremacy. We may have to wait 30-40 years to have it. What do we do NOW is the question. 2/n

I have seen many blaming Bhutto for starting the Mujahideen operation. Daud started the provocation immediately after his coup in July 1973. Rabbani has been head of Jamiat-e Islami of Afghanistan since 1972 and active in student politics since 1968. When Daud moved to crush the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… It should be noted that by the 1970s, Afghanistan was in the Soviet sphere of influence. 40% of its budget was foreign-funded. The Soviet Union was the largest foreign aid donor. Bhutto had refused to back the US in Vietnam War and was intensely disliked by Johnson. Bhutto… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

There was nothing wrong with the nationalisation of heavy industries which represented around 20% of the industrial base in 1972. Many were built with subsidies and concessional financing. Some were in red. Post 1972, the state invested heavily in cement and fertiliser- a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… The sales of all nationalised industries also increased from Rs. 1,428 million in 1972-3 to Rs. 2,349 million in 1973-4 - an increase of over 64%. At a constant price level of 1969/70, the economy saw the relative share of total public sector investment sharply rise from 12.6% in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

As Bangladesh Became Free on Dec 16, 1971, a Secret London Conclave Mooted Balochistan's Liberation m.thewire.in/article/diplom… @MaryamShKhan Another interesting read by another Indian scholar is My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal amzn.eu/d/gXiWPjb

Thread on Education:
Why must education and technology be the top most national priority both in the immediate future as well as in the long term? We can look at the rest of the world for answers.
Between 1909 and 1949, when the U.S. economy doubled its gross output per hours of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… On the other hand, India’s homegrown instant payment system has remade commerce and pulled millions into the formal economy. The scan-and-pay system is one pillar of what has been described as the country’s “digital public infrastructure,” with a foundation laid by the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

۱۹۷۹ کے اخبار ات کی سرخیاں ، ۴ اپرلُ۱۹۷۹ کو بھٹو صاحب کو پھانسی دے دی گئی. انکے آخری الفاظ تھے : “مالک مدد میں بے گناہ ہوں”.

https://twitter.com/YousufNazar/status/1640318405071757315

Supreme Court has been sitting on a presidential reference on ZAB's judicial murder for 12 years. It is hard to take SC judges' claims about justice seriously given the judiciary's long and dark past and its role in the darkest chapter of Pakistan's post-1971 history; the hanging… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

“Here’s How Chief Justice’s Suo Motu Powers Undermine Democracy”, writes Hassan Niazi, a lawyer based in Singapore, in this article for the series: Is There A Way Forward For Pakistan? Hassan did his LL.M. from New York University where he was dissenttoday.net/featured/heres…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… “Suo motu power was created through judicial activism. It has no basis in the text of the Constitution, and it had not even been mentioned by the Supreme Court when it framed its own rules in 1980”, writes Singapore-based lawyer @Hassan_A_Niazi in @DissentToday

Pakistan’s economic crisis can be analysed in many ways. Many start from the twin deficits & point to the obvious: overspending and heavy dependence on imports. This approach is flawed in that it focuses on what is their in the national accounts but not what may not be there 1/n I recall the time when I had an army of analysts working for me and analysing stocks. My advice was anyone can look at the financial statements and make projections but only a handful outperform the market. Those few look at the bigger picture, understand the mega trends 2/n

If Pakistan is to move forward and have any hope of catching up with the rest of Asia, it will have to move beyond Jinnah and Iqbal. This is 2023 and a lot has changed. Nations that don’t embrace change fall behind. It must think about what went terribly wrong, when, how? 1/n Here are a few points to think. For most of its history, Pakistan has been governed as a centralised authoritarian state although it came into existence as democratic federal state. First blunder too place just days after partition. Jinnah dismissed the duly elected govt of 2/n

There is a lot of debate on the exchange rate. Manipulating the rate is a bad idea, and having multiple rates is even worse. How Pakistan's real effective exchange rate and imports have behaved. This is simply a graph that shows these two. Please study this & comment 1/2 Imports were stable around the $44-45bn range during 2013-2016 despite an appreciation of the rupee in real terms. In 2017, imports rose by $8bn to $52.9bn & to $60.8bn in 2018. 70% of the rise in the import bill was accounted for by energy products, capital equipment 2/3

Energy crisis lies at the core of the present economic crisis. No doubt economic crisis is just one aspect of Pakistan’s much bigger multidimensional crises, in brief, state failure. I see no other alternative but to seek a rescheduling of FC loans owed by the power sector 1/2 , mainly to China/Chinese banks. This should be the first step in the restructuring of the power sector. The foreign currency debt should be replaced by local currency debt and the equity of the IPPs should be bought by the govt as part of overall restructuring of the power 2/n

I am putting here a recently published article that many could not access due to the paywall.
Pakistan is facing a multi-dimensional crisis, probably the worst since 1971 when it broke up after the Bangladesh war. 1/n The crisis is overwhelming for Pakistan’s army establishment and political players and there is almost a universal sense of the lack of direction. Last week, Pakistan’s prime minister and army chief visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pleading for more aid 2/n

#Pakistan is likely to continue the current military-dominated hybrid system of governance for the foreseeable future. The military is unlikely to gamble on Imran Khan. PMLN has lost of ground. Sharif brothers are ageing and Maryam won’t be able to keep the party united. 1/n PPP under Bilawal will lose ground in Sindh and is not going to be a significant force in Punjab. The weakening of the political forces will help the military establishment to tighten its grip. But it has a poor understanding of the economy and has no appetite to listen, so 2/n

Dr Iqbal’s letter to THE TIMES, Oct 1931: “May I tell Dr. Thompson that in this passage I do not put forward a demand for a Moslem state outside the British Empire, but only a guess at the possible outcome in the dim future of the mighty forces now shaping the destiny of”1/n the Indian sub-continent. No Indian Moslem with any pretence to sanity contemplates a Moslem state or series of States in North-West India outside the British commonwealth of Nations as a plan of practical politics. 2/n

Why only the constitution not army can keep Pakistan united & stable? Pakistan has faced the challenge of creating a viable national political unit out of the remnants of a former colony that is a patchwork of ethnicities, tribes, and linguistic 1/n groups united only the common experience of shared foreign rule and geographical proximity. Since it is not a country with a homogenous population, it can be a tenable state in the long term only through a social contract via a constitution. In the U.S., diverse ethnicities 2/n

If the govt believes the economy will recover next year by the time of the elections, it should think again. I believe it would take 3-4 years for the economy to recover and inflation to come down to single digits. This year will be the year of stagflation & more unemployment. Policy/strategy cannot be based on hope. The past is not a perfect guide but good to remember it took years to recover from the 2008 crisis even though the financial crisis did not hit Pakistan.

Pakistan's senate is believed to have many billionaires and multi-millionaires. Some allege crores are spent to get the tickets. But if we believe the information contained in the FBR tax directory is correct, most of them are from the middle class or even the poor. Why? 1/8 The FBR directory (published 2022 for the tax year 2019), provided details of just 80 out of 100 senators. Five members declared ZERO income. The total income of other members was just Rs1536.3m ($10.2m) including Rs58.7m ($391K) in agriculture income 2/8

5 July 1977. A new era dominated by the military started and continues in Pakistan. Aside from the worst suppression and horrific crushing of political dissent, which included even firing from helicopters on protesters, Pakistan’s soul and society was irreparably damaged 1/n unleashing the forces of bigotry, religious fundamentalism (JI), state-sponsored sectarianism (SSP) and covertly backed ethnic hatred (MQM and Jiye Sindh). This combustible mix and convergence of destructive forces was to haunt Pakistan for decades and continues to do so 2/n