$ZIM Value For A Buyer Is Way Above $30

To be clear, I wasn’t planning to write anything further about $ZIM. But then I came across this exchange, essentially a detailed critique of an analyst and the analysis aligns exactly with the core argument hedge funds and activists are already making.

If $ZIM is being bought out, the buyer isn’t purchasing a stock ticker or a short-term earnings stream. They are acquiring assets. And when you look at ZIM’s asset base, conservative estimates put that value at around $70 (which includes $25 in cash) per share. Against that backdrop, the idea that a rational buyer would acquire those assets for $25 per share simply because that happens to be the cash balance makes no economic sense.

It’s long but it’s a MUST read:

Market Valuation VS. Asset Valuation

I urge readers to take the time to read my entire post. It's important. This article conveys some very troubling analysis! Like most things, there is some good mixed in with the bad. So I'll start with the good.

The key point, above all else, that Melissa's article makes clear is that until the recent flare up of multiple bidders interested in a Zim buy out proposition, virtually all valuation of Zim as a company by Wall Street analysts, Seeking Alpha analysts, ME, or anyone else, was done based on "Market Valuation" principles. We all know those principles very, very well. They involved evaluations based on valuation metrics such as P/E, EV/EBIT, and other popular data points. Those methods often use DCF analysis or other ways to discount the forecast profits of Zim over time back to a present day net worth.

By all of those metrics and measurement techniques, the "market valuation" method results in low share prices and a low market cap due to the reality of Zim facing challenging UNSTABLE market conditions, including trade war impacts, potential Red Sea reopening impacts, excessive capacity from orderbooks for new ships, and more factors. As Melissa correctly says, the future business prospect for the immediate future for Zim are "grim." The inevitable outcome of the market valuation method for Zim has resulted in 2025 for analyst predictions of share prices from about $9 to $15 for most of the year.

However, that's only ONE method of valuation. The other method normally is not used by investors unless one of two things is about to happen to a company: 1) its about to be liquidated in bankruptcy with all its assets being sold off or 2) its about to be bought out by a new owner. We are now in the second scenario, as everyone knows. Therefore, for the moment it is CRITICAL to toss aside all "market valuation" techniques and the results from those assessments in favor of the results which come forth when using the Asset Valuation technique. When a sale is about to occur, it's a transfer of assets and that demands a value of those assets via the Asset Valuation methods.

I dare say since she started covering Zim, most SA readers have really liked her work, finding it among the best and most accurate assessment of Zim offered by any SA analyst. That's normally how I see her work too! But I don't give free passes when an analyst gets out into deep water over their head and flounders helplessly around!

So what I write next isn't intended to be flattering. It's intended to show how Melissa has utterly failed to correctly apply the Asset Valuation technique in a rational, logical manner. And, more importantly to be sure that SA readers don't blindly accept her conclusions as fact. In this case, I strongly dispute her conclusion that a $25 to $30 per share sale price is appropriate for Zim. With all due respect, asset valuation of business assets is a significant part of my work as a Certified General Real Estate Appraiser, which I have been for 47 years running. While I haven't personally valued a container shipping company, I have dealt with industrial, commercial, and special purpose enterprises of all descriptions. In addition to basic real estate (office buildings, warehouses, land, etc.) nearly every business I have ever valued has also had many other assets to additionally value, using one method or another out of recognized appraisal principles. When it comes to asset valuation, we are in my wheelhouse now!

These enterprises may have anything from corporate airplanes, airfields, hangers, small boats, docks, trucks and other rolling stock, furniture, fixtures, and equipment, and various special duty items, such as massive hoists or similar pieces of equipment. The things I have encountered and dealt with are not all that dissimilar to much of what Zim holds as its corporate assets.

Many, if not most, operating businesses also lease various items, and they have goodwill that has value, trademarks, corporate brands, intellectual property, stocks or other investments in other enterprises or assets, and so much more. Zim has all of these, meaning there is a LOT TO VALUE with Zim! Melissa didn't even try to value any of those assets as, frankly, she probably doesn't even know what they all are, much less how to value them.

It often takes a team of skilled, certified and qualified appraisers to develop a genuine value for the assets of a company like Zim. Evercore, the financial adviser hired by Zim most likely has a team of its own staff or outside valuation experts working on a defensible and solid valuation of Zim. Most of the time if I am working on a project like that it is for bankruptcy, but it can just as easily be for determining the worth of all the assets, at their current fair market value on the open market, for a sale to a new buyer. I do both. In any event, valuing a very large company like Zim is a gargantuan undertaking, not one that a financial writer can do on a napkin.

That's the problem analysts such as Melissa face. How does a single analyst trying to write a fast article come up with anything more than a "wild guess" at what the TRUE value of Zim's assets would REALLY be worth? It's not easy. As someone who has done this for a living, I'd even say its "next to impossible" for any analyst to do all by themselves, me included.

But believe me here, Melissa started out on the right path by realizing that the total value of Zim's assets is likely FAR MORE than most see. It's just hard to be accurate when "counting all the beans" so to speak. Her problem is she attempted doing a "back of napkin" valuation and did reach a numerical conclusion. Yet she then IGNORED her own value by suggesting the company could be sold to a new buyer at only about 40% of the value she calculated!

However, for the beans she did count...which absolutely is NOT everything Zim actually does own at its fair market value....she did a decent job.

But after reading the article, exactly WHAT does Melissa think Zim's assets are worth using the Asset Valuation approach? Oddly, she never totaled it all up! So let me do that for her, right here quoting her own value conclusions. What she did do was value three categories of assets. She valued these three categories as follows:

1) "this implies a fleet value above $5 billion just for the newbuilds ordered between 2021 and 2022."

2) "...14 car carriers chartered on shorter-term contracts, plus 16 owned container ships and handling equipment valued at over $1 billion.

3) "the company still has close to $3 billion in cash, or around $25 per share, after paying the last dividend."

The Heart
A short weekend story

📘 Maybe you were just a kid and your parents screamed at you.

Maybe they divorced, and you didn’t understand why.

Maybe someone you loved broke up with you, or a friend betrayed you.
Or maybe your pet died, or a family member tragically passed away.

Trading Options – Here’s the Secret

To trade options, everyone needs to spend some time learning the basic strategies. There are plenty of books out there, and I’m not going to recommend a specific one.

🧵 What matters is understanding the core logic—”addition and subtraction”—not the “calculus.”

The complicated jargon and math is mostly used by X users who can’t make money and try to sell subscriptions by hiding bad market calls behind fancy language.

The Silent Companion

A man and a woman were deeply in love. They built a life together, filled with happiness, and had a young daughter. But one day, duty called—the man was sent to war, leaving his wife and child behind. With a heavy heart, he promised to return, and his wife vowed to wait for him. Two years passed before he finally came home. His family was overjoyed. His wife, overwhelmed with happiness, rushed to the market to buy food, eager to prepare a great feast to celebrate his return. In the meantime, the man sat down with his daughter, eager to reconnect with her.

Does the brain produce consciousness?

(See thread below) There is no doubt that the brain is influenced by consciousness, but the real question is: does this chemical soup actually produce consciousness, or is there more to the story?

The Trade $VIX
In a world with a 5% interest rate and macro challenges, there are many events that could push $VIX above 15 given enough time.

Position Risk
Spike: $VIX doesn't go from zero to one directly, so ANY bad event should lead to a profitable outcome if you exit early.

https://twitter.com/zeecontrarian1/status/1788629977740800098

VIX stays below 13: The true risk lies in $VIX staying low. While I can't guarantee a spike in the next 30-60 days, it's a reasonable assumption that it will happen eventually. Even a modest increase to 15 within that timeframe would suffice.

Hedging $UVXY short option positions with $VIX spreads.

Imagine a scenario where the $VIX stays low for most of the month. $UVXY loses money due to contango, and its potential risk also diminishes as it rolls contracts forward to the next month with each passing day. VIX Spreads Option Advantage: $VIX options grant you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the VIX at a specific price by a certain date (expiration). If the VIX suddenly jumps near expiration, your options will benefit from the full increase in the VIX.

A story tells that two friends were walking through the desert. During some point of the journey, they had an argument, and one friend slapped the other one in the face. The one who got slapped was hurt, but without saying anything, wrote in the sand “Today my best friend slapped me in the face”.

They kept on walking until they found an oasis, where they decided to take a bath.

The current 1.04% $VIX contango reflects the monthly loss incurred by $VIX products, making it unwise to short $UVXY and $VXX or to go long on $SVIX due to the unfavorable contango conditions. BUT, the higher the $VIX goes the greater the opportunity to short it will be. If you are wondering why I referenced the second and third $VIX futures contango and not the first and second, it's because, as a general rule, $VIX products roll over one $VIX contract every day from the front month to the second month,

"The Chinese Farmer"

🧵📖

#storytime
#parable
#alanwatts
#philosophy
#TrustGod Once upon a time,
there was a Chinese farmer
living in a small village.
He had a horse that
was his most valuable possession.
One day, his horse ran away,
leaving the farmer without
any means of transportation.
The villagers sympathized,
but the farmer simply said,
"We'll see."

THE PATH TO ATTAINING INNER PEACE has been a interesting journey for me as I cannot recall the last time I felt sad, angry, frustrated, or envious. Although negative emotions do surface every once in a while, their presence is fleeting.
But how did I achieve this state?
🧵 Minimalism: this does not imply becoming a monk. Rather, it means removing everything from your life which you do not need and keeping only what is necessary for your happiness, be it possessions or social circles. This frees up extra time and money which can be utilised better.

The Story of the Mexican Fisherman

An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked.  Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them. The Mexican replied, “only a little while. The American then asked why didn’t he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Mexican said he had enough to support his family.

Volatility on Wall Street raised its head yesterday, with an increase of 1.4 points in the $VIX index to 22.16 points. This level is still relatively low compared to what we saw from the "fear index" from the beginning of the year,

🧵 but additional movements behind the scenes present a different picture. Most of you are familiar with the $VIX, which is calculated from the implied standard deviation of the options on the S&P 500 index. When this index rises, it reflects an increase in the risk perception

What is the formula for a good life?

I am sure we all agree that many possessions do not equal happiness; most of the wealthiest people I know are emotionally dysfunctional at best and miserable at worst.

So what kind of life one should pursue to have a meaningful life?

🧵 So maybe experiences bring happiness? Well, would a fifty-year-old successful man that had countless parties, expensive vacations, sex, money, and possessions define his life as great if he just had everything taken away in a financial crisis or an accident? probably not.

“We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.”
-Seneca

Market crash this week? 😰
New Covid strain, we are doomed😰
That earning report next week..😰
Dentist on Tuesday, this will hurt 😰

Overthinking and being anxious about upcoming things is completely normal, everyone does it but a lot of the times those things are more in our head than in reality, they very rarely materialise.

Think about it for a second, how many of your worries actually played out to be as bad as you thought they would?

The Path of Least Resistance to Become a Multi Millionaire - 15 tips from 8 self made multi millionaires.

1.Fundamentals matter: choose a degree that gives you a skill: Law, engineering and tech degrees are preferable but not a must. 2.Soft skills: Sales, business & psychology are skills you will learn as you go, don’t waste a 3 years degree on them.

The Contrarian Case for HostelWorld ( $HSW.L) ( $HSWLF), A Beautiful Turnaround Story in the Making.
MCAP: € 97MM
CASH: ~ € 20MM + € 30MM loan
CASH BURN: ~1.6MM per month.
Price: £78
Price Target: £410
Catalyst:-
Buy urgency: low
Holding period: ~2.5 years.
Thread Below 👇 Hostel world is a platform like Booking.com and Expedia, however it specializes in the hostel niche in which 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫 and caters to a global customer base with an extensive inventory of hostels for booking.

HOW TO USE TWITTER TO BECOME A GREAT INVESTOR:
I’ll start by saying that learning from Twitter, if used correctly, is better than books. Twitter is full of good mentors, even if you don’t speak directly with the investor, Twitter offers a form of mentorship. So let’s begin: 1-Becoming a great investor requires to READ A LOT, so find a space or a few spaces that interest you, avoid becoming a jack of all trades and a master of none-this will get you nowhere.
As a master in a niche field even the smartest people in the world..

1/2 Meeting with $KMDA summary:
COVID-19:
*Vaccine will work for most, not for all, Corona here to stay for a long while.
*Won the lottery with Corona, very similar to Ebola that was treated with Plasma, this is what Kamada does best. Various reports from China suggest Plasma 2/2 positive effect.
*High probability of success, level of efficiency still unknown.
*Phase 1 & 2 for covid to begin in the next few weeks(catalyst).
*Expedited Phase 1&2 (no need to check for side effects-not a synthetic drug.)

1.FarFetch , the #1 platform for online luxury fashion is a conviction pick for 2020, reasons:
*Positive headwinds as online luxury consumption grows from 12% today to 25% of the overall luxury market in 2025 (per Bain).
*No Amazon as luxury brands prefer to stay away. *Attractive platform economics, margins should settle at 25%.
*JD.COM, the Chinese behemoth, is a big investor & strategic partner.
*The market is missing the possible NGG acquisition synergies.
*NGG is the parent company of OFF WHITE, the #1 luxury brand