Not financial advice, do your own research. I think this is an interesting trade...

Future Fuel $FF May $5 calls for ~$0.05-$.10 for the Final RVO catalyst

Chart looks like it wants $6 “gap-fill” by mid-March sends contracts to $1.50+ catalyzed by soon-to-be-announced Final RVO by the EPA no later than end of March. @ $3.75, $FF sports a $79M enterprise value with 51% of its cap in cash!!! $FF is off-the-radar aas it conducts no earnings calls, has no wall-street coverage, and has minimal investor engagement, e.g., the market has left for dead.

$EOSE Here’s my fundamental justification as to why I’m shorting $EOSE in the mid to high $4’s after its stunning 300%+ move since Cerberus got involved back in July For starters, lets recap the basic economics of the Cerberus deal.

In exchange for 33% of Eos’ equity via the issuance of preferred stock & warrants (up to 49% equity upon failing [4] milestones; of which Eos has already successfully passed [2], Cerberus provided Eos with:

$EOSE My monthly cash model was SPOT ON ACCURATE.

$31M ending 3/31 after $2M PTC monetization.

$74M new orders booked in Q1

This Implies PG wasnt booked in Q1 backlog. I think the PG down pmt comes in Q2 for $6M ($125M x 5%). Expecting another $125 order @ 5% DP for $6M in May The golden nugget in the PR is this: 65% of cubes have not yet recognized revs. I think thats another ~$4M cash upside in Q2 as these batts get commissioned and CoD'd. - see math.

$EOSE 🚨🚨Negative covenants from the Atlas term loan🚨🚨

PRIOR TO DOE LOAN CLOSING, Eos cannot assume more than $40M of indebtedness INCLUSIVE of the balance on the Equipment LoC (which stands at $7M as of 3Q'23).

Giving Eos the ability to ONLY BORROW $33M before DOE close. @x_times_1 @Umbisam

$EOSE 🚨NPR 1186 – new legislation in ERCOT around monitoring state of charge (SoC) for batteries – is a MAJOR tailwind for LDES, and for Eos.

L-Ion has been “gaming” ERCOT and just got the hammer.

Market is sleeping on the benefits to Eos & > 4 hr storage w/ 100% discharge Batteries are not going to be able to game the market by going into the "day ahead market" (DAM) to participate in ancillary services.

Pt 1 🧵TLDR: Two calls w/ Mike Gravely at the CEC have exponentially increased my conviction in staying heavily long EOSE with leverage. ~30% short interest unaware of the underlying forces driving the decision making in the CA long duration storage market. Summarized notes from call #2 this afternoon:

This 100 MW/800 MWh pending order [*SEEN BELOW IN RED, REVEALED LAST FRIDAY*] is a BIG DEAL and has second, and third order effects.

$EOSE.

Did not expect a 15% move today. WTF...

Will be sharing my FUNDAMENTAL work on why I BELIEVE this can skyrocket to $10+ on $250M DoE Title 17 loan - pending due diligence since May 2022, potential commitment letter on the horizon...

Stay tuned.

energy-storage.news/eos-moves-ahea…

https://twitter.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1626056983970304000

👀Buying leap calls on an under-the-radar energy equipment name that I wont share till a later date with an EXTREMELY compelling catalyst looming in the next few weeks that could potentially 5-10X the price overnight...

@JPSartre_NoExit hurry up & this company has letters of intent worth 9X the market cap 👀🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

👀FLNC is the best U.S proxy for TSLA MP

I've seen/heard many analysts nervous/uncertain about TSLA MP revenue recognition given % completion accounting.

FLNC just started providing detail into their rev rec as of Q1'23.

✅ Over last 4 quarters, FLNC recognized 91% of revenue On a quarterly basis, rev rec will be lumpy for Tesla. Over a 12mo rolling period, it will smooth out.

FLNC data is encouraging given some are expecting < 50% rev rec for Tesla in a 12mo. rolling basis

There will be periods where Rev Rec is greater than deployents (see Q4'22)

Further evidence of FAT MARGINS at TSLA Lathrop. I’ve provided evidence of > 60% gross margin with hardware, install, services, and maintenance ASP, coupled with known bill of material cost in the battery and equipment accounting for > 80% of unit cost structure.The big question therefore, is what are factory overhead/operating expenses to determine EPS power? $2 U.S BESS player – Fluence (FLNC) – provides detail on their operating expenses. In 2022, total operating expenses were $155K adjusted for a one-time platform investment of $59K which I exclude