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Dave Morrison Profile picture
Dave Morrison
@_davemorrison
Identifying Russian front-line aviation activity using image analysis, focusing on Su-25 close air support aircraft. Not an aviation expert.
Jul 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Footage published 19 July depicts the floating tail of the Su-25 involved in a fatal crash near Yeysk on 17 July. The yellow '08' suggests the aircraft was likely RF-94685 '08 Yellow' of 266th ShAP, seen operating from Yeysk in a Zvezda clip from 06 June. 1/

Image
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Image Another 266th ShAP Su-25, operating from Kursk-Khalino, suffered a fatal crash attributed to 'technical failure' in February. 2/
May 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Reports today of 2 Russian Su-25s lost to MANPADS near Zaporizhzhia, one crashing immediately and the other making an emergency landing in Melitopol.

Possible that the Su-25s flew from Gvardeskoye, where 37 SAP / 368 ShAP are known to operate. Map is entirely speculative. 1/ ImageImage I'm not an expert. Speculation:

Russian Su-25s generally operate as a pair. It would be unusual for both aircraft in a pair to be lost, but the trailing aircraft are observed to often follow the same flight path. If the leader enters MANPADS range, generally both are at risk. 2/
May 23, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Russian MoD clip published 21 May.
Su-25 operations, Millerovo, Rostov Oblast

The clip depicts an attack by a pair of Su-25s: A Su-25SM (2000-era upgrades) of 18 ShAP leading a Su-25 (no upgrades) of 999 AvB, each equipped with S-8 unguided rockets. 1/ @RedIntelPanda geolocated several points including the firing point: 2/

May 22, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Russian MoD clip published 18 May.
Su-25 operations, Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai.

External footage features Su-25s without upgrades, of 266 ShAP.
Cockpit footage features Su-25SMs of 18 ShAP.
1/ @RedIntelPanda geolocated the attack location, noting that it appears to be a similar location and timeframe to another recent Russian MoD clip. 2/
May 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Footage published 20 April shows a Russian Su-25 in a banked turn near Belgorod, illuminated by radar. The aircraft is carrying no external ordnance, but carries four external fuel tanks (the maximum), suggesting a non-combat flight. 1/6 Location: At the start of the footage the aircraft is at approx 4000m altitude, banking to the left, just south-west of Pogorolevka. This is about 45km north-east of Belgorod in Russia. 2/6

Location: 50.8032, 7.1319 ImageImage
Mar 27, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Russian MoD clip published today.
Kursk-Khalino, Kursk Oblast
Su-25 '10 Yellow', RF-95181, 266 ShAP
Su-25 '26 Red', RF-95140, (18 ShAP)
()=Possible
My clip is de-edited into two sorties.
1: '26 Red' following '10 Yellow'.
2: a/c unidentified. 1/

Source: mil.ru/video/%D0%91%D… '10 Yellow' apparently operates with a hole in the wing root. There is always a vent here, but non-repair may suggest preventative maintenance is low priority.

266 ShAP suffered a non-combat loss of '37 Yellow' to a technical fault, unclear if this footage predates that loss. 2/
Mar 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
@MT_Anderson recently posted satellite images of 🇷🇺 airbase Severomorsk-3, showing carrier-capable aircraft:

MiG-29KR/KUBR aircraft of 100 KIAP
Su-33 aircraft of 279 KIAP

A brief video thread of past Russian MoD videos depicting operations of those regiments.
1/4 In a September 2021 Russian MoD video, MiG-29KR and MiG-29KUBR aircraft of 100 KIAP are seen operating from Severomorsk-3.
2/4
Source: mil.ru/video/2021-09-…
Mar 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian MoD clip published today.

'In the Kaliningrad region, the exercise of fighter aircraft of the Baltic Fleet'

Chkalovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast

Old footage, previously seen in April 2022, seemingly presented as if new.

1/
Source mil.ru/video/%D0%A1%D… Footage is reused from this previous clip from April 2022, 'Fighters of the Baltic Fleet conducted a training battle with mock enemy aircraft' 2/

Source: mil.ru/video/%D0%94%D…

Part 1 of 2
Mar 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Clip of Russian Su-25 operations, reportedly near Vuhledar.

Su-25SM, probably RF-93012 '01 Red' of 18 ShAP
3 unidentified Su-25SM, probably of 18 ShAP (paint scheme)

These aircraft seem to be returning to Yeysk.

1/4
Source: t.me/vorposte/36607 A possible launch rail is visible on '01 Red'. The heavy post-processing makes it difficult to identify, but possibly an APU-68, often used to launch S-24 rockets.

Rocket pods are not visible on any of the 4 aircraft, so possibly all were launching S-24B rockets. 2/4
Mar 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
In a recent satellite image from 22 Feb 2023, 13 Su-25 aircraft were seen at Millerovo. A thread speculating on the possible composition and regiment of these aircraft, based on past footage. 1/6 Edited Russian MoD clip from May 2022: A line up of upgraded Su-25s is seen - some with 2000-era upgrades ('SM', no dorsal antenna), the others with modern upgrades ('SM3', small dorsal antenna). These are probably from the 960th Assault Aviation Regiment (960 ShAP) 2/6
Feb 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
A brief illustrative thread on some of the systems possibly involved in this attack. My information may be inaccurate.

In this July 2022 Russian MoD clip, Kh-101 missiles are seen on external hardpoints under a Tu-95MS, which is unable to carry the large Kh-101 internally. 1/5 In this April 2021 Russian MoD clip, Kh-55SMs with KTS-120 mass simulators in place of warheads can be seen loaded into the rotary launchers of a Tu-160 and Tu-95. Kh-55s with mass simulators have been used in previous attacks, possibly as decoys. Kh-555 is visually similar. 2/5
Jan 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Recent Russian MOD clips contain a mix of two sorties of Su-35S '07 Blue' operating from Belbek, with 1) an air-to-air loadout, including a single R-37M missile, 2) a loadout including one Kh-31PM, two R-37M. I've attempted to separate the footage into those two sorties. 1/4 2/4 One unusual feature of the '07 Blue' footage is that the helmet worn by the pilot lacks any form of HMTDS, NVG or camera mount. Despite this, close inspection shows that the recently delivered 07 Blue has components of a Sura or equivalent HMTDS system fitted. Image
Dec 9, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
'Can the R-37M fly 400km?', an interviewer asked Ukrainian pilot 'Karaya' recently. A thread with some statements about the range of the R-37M (known as the RVV-BD for export), primarily referencing Janes Weapons: Air-Launched 2021-2022 and manufacturer specifications: 1/7 Interviewer: Because they [the occupiers] have a R-37 air-to Development of the original R-37 began in the early 1980s. A number of trials took place around 1994. One involved 'careful trajectory shaping', achieving a range in excess of 250km. The programme was discontinued in 1998. 2/7