When Lander gets eliminated in the final round, his 22.2% breaks 63.5% for Mamdani and a 36.5% for Cuomo. That split is what could hand Cuomo the win. Lander’s base—white, college-educated liberals in Brooklyn and Manhattan—is exactly the group Mamdani needs to persuade and convert: progressive on climate and housing, but cautious on Israel-Palestine and allergic to anything that feels like executive inexperience and activist maximalism. They like technocrats with a conscience. If Mamdani doesn’t win them over, he can’t get out of second place.

To break through, Mamdani has to become the default progressive choice—not just for the left, but for the white liberals who likely backed Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden in 2020. And it also means making real inroads into Cuomo’s base—especially Black voters and moderate Manhattanites. I’d be curious to know which group is more persuadable at this point: Black voters backing Cuomo or older white college-educated voters who rank Cuomo ahead of Mamdani.

Wrote a response to the discussion between @AJentleson, @jonfavs, @ezraklein, @mattyglesias, @AOC, @mehdirhasan, and others this past week about “The Groups,” woke activists, the Democratic establishment and electoral majorities.

thenation.com/article/politi… @AJentleson @jonfavs @ezraklein @mattyglesias @AOC @mehdirhasan Kamala Harris’s campaign didn’t fail because of leftist slogans. It failed largely because her corporate advisors told her to avoid populist messaging in earned media. Courting billionaires and celebrities won’t win over working families struggling with rising costs.

Harris struggled with inflation and rising costs, which Trump framed as a Democratic failure. The Biden-Harris administration lacked clear, impactful wins to communicate an improved material life. Voters wanted tangible, visible outcomes that directly benefited them. Trump’s culture warrior, racist, populist and anti-system appeal resonated with non-college and working-class voters. He tapped into issues that made many feel alienated by Democratic elites, reaching those who felt left behind as society’s hierarchies have changed.

Over the past year, I've heard the same refrain from many Democratic officials, consultants, and staffers. First, it’s sympathy: “It’s horrific, what’s happening in Gaza, what we're doing.” But then comes the pivot: “Change takes time; the other side is so much more powerful.” “The politics are complicated,” they say, referencing donors, constituents, and decades of pro-Israel public sentiment. It’s a quiet acceptance of how things are, and maybe even how they have to be. But there’s no real urgency to shift course.

There is a profound sadness in watching Harris’s vision for multiracial democracy unravel at its most vital edge—Muslim and Arab Americans. For nearly a decade, Democratic leaders have correctly warned that Trump’s hatred starts with us, yet Harris’s fear of the AIPAC network and unwillingness to even publicly sit with families impacted by US-supplied Israeli bombs marks a glaring exception in her political vision.

Voting isn’t about a declaration of faith—it’s about finding the coalition that can carry your struggle forward. It’s about leveraging what you have to make the change you seek, even when the choices feel flawed. The Democratic Party isn’t just Biden and Harris. It’s also the coalition of diverse, working class voters, the legacy civil rights groups, church grandmas, labor unions, climate and reproductive rights organizations, and progressives who help anchor the party.

The 60 delegates of the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party (MFDP) at the 1964 Democratic Convention showed how inside/outside grassroots organizing can challenge entrenched systems, even without immediate wins.

Formed to fight segregation in Mississippi, the MFDP demanded recognition over the all-white, segregationist group. Fannie Lou Hamer’s testimony on Black voter suppression was a turning point, exposing deep racism in the Democratic Party.

🧵In 1968, America was deeply divided over the Vietnam War, and the Democratic Party was caught in the crossfire. VP Hubert Humphrey found himself in a tough spot, closely tied to President Johnson, whose policies were increasingly unpopular among liberals and young voters. Humphrey was often sidelined in key decisions, especially on Vietnam. As anti-war protests grew louder, the youth and liberals in the Democratic Party demanded change—a change they didn't see in Humphrey.

Here's a log of extreme and violent, anti-Palestinian rhetoric from Israeli officials, assigning collective punishment to civilians in Gaza.

Almost all of these were never condemned by the White House or Democratic Party leadership, if you want to understand how we got here. Netanyahu: “You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible. And we do remember.”

In 1980, the Rabbi Israel Hess wrote an article that used the story of Amalek to justify wiping out Palestinians.

motherjones.com/politics/2023/…

WHY CEASEFIRE? A ceasefire is necessary to save lives and address the humanitarian catastrophe that is underway in Gaza. Israel’s pursuit of aerial bombardment, siege, and forced population movement policies that many experts say constitute war crimes, and preparing a full-scale ground invasion that will lead to an apocalyptic loss of life. There is no military solution to the security threat that Hamas poses to Israel. While Hamas must be held accountable, Israel has tried a military solution every four years in Gaza; it always fails to protect Israel or Palestinians.

Even if Israel is narrowly successful in killing or capturing all 30,000 - 40,000 Hamas fighters (a task that will entail unspeakable destruction and casualties), the anger of the Palestinian civilians over their treatment that is the wellspring of Hamas’s support will only deepen, and Israel will be no safer.

An ad being run in Georgia by Stephen Miller’s group: America First Legal.

Ads like these will likely become more common in the coming years.

I emailed @matthewkassel asking why his recent piece refers to @ninaturner as "controversial" and a "source of concern" but is neutral in describing DMFI, a SuperPAC running ads against Nina Turner that takes GOP money and whose board member called for burning all of Gaza. For context, the piece includes six quotes from people backing @ninaturner's opponent, Shontel Brown, and zero quotes from people backing Nina Turner.

jewishinsider.com/2021/06/shonte…

During a study abroad program, I took a bus from Jordan to Jerusalem alongside 7 (white American) students. When we got to the Israeli border, Israeli border agents told me I was in the wrong line (which was all white people) and pointed to a separate line that had only Arabs. I told the Israeli border agents that I was with an American study abroad group and that I was an American citizen -- and that I wasn't Arab. My friends affirmed this. The border agents shouted "Wrong line!" and pointed to the Arab line.

Powerful words from @AyannaPressley: "We cannot remain silent when our government sends $3.8 billion of military aid to Israel that is used to demolish Palestinian homes, imprison Palestinian children, and displace Palestinian families. A budget is a reflection of our values." "The President and many other figures stated that Israel has a right to self-defense...but do Palestinians have a right to survive? Do we believe that? And if so, we have a responsibility to that as well." -@AOC

Reading Frederick Douglass's response to President Lincoln's first inaugural address in 1861.

"Threats of riot, rebellion, violence and assassination had been freely, though darkly circulated, as among the probable events to occur on that memorable day." "The life of Mr. LINCOLN was believed, even by his least timid friends, to be in most imminent danger...he reached the Capital as the poor, hunted fugitive slave reaches the North...it is hard to think of anything more humiliating."

Lots of people say: "American parties haven't been this polarized since the Civil War."

What happened then? Eric Foner faults a political system and democratic institutions designed by the Founding Fathers to compromise with slavery over multiracial democracy. "As North and South increasingly took different paths...antagonistic value systems and ideologies could not be defused by the normal processes of political compromise, nor could they be contained."

[Eric Foner, Politics and Ideology in The Age of the Civil War]

Pete Buttigieg was for single-payer, Medicare for All before he was against it. Here we go:

02/17/2018: Buttigieg is befuddled as to why anyone would ever question his support for Medicare for All.

https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/964863858849574913

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1194370238843936772

02/18/2018: Buttigieg literally says "[I] do henceforth and forthwith declare, most affirmatively and indubitably, unto the ages, that I do favor Medicare for All" pointing to an op-ed to demonstrate he's supported it since 2004.

The op-ed explicitly mentions single-payer.

The debate we’ve been having with Jonathan Weisman over the past few weeks has made clear that the people who shape our national conversation can often be ignorant at best and biased at worst regarding some of the most important topics in our country today.

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1161377534921117697

The back-and-forth with Weisman has demonstrated more than ever why we need more diverse newsrooms and why it’s important to have younger and more diverse voices in some of the most powerful rooms in our nation.

Nancy Pelosi led 129 Democrats to join Republicans in passing a McConnell bill that had absolutely no input from House Democrats.

This bill will beef up the militarization of our border and Trump's deportation machine.

95 Democrats voted no.

List:

clerk.house.gov/evs/2019/roll4… Democrats who voted with Republicans for Mitch McConnell's bill:

Allred
Axne
Beatty
Bera
Bishop (GA)
Blunt Rochester
Brindisi
Brownley (CA)
Bustos
Carbajal
Cartwright
Case
Casten (IL)
Castor (FL)
Cleaver
Clyburn
Cohen
Cooper
Costa
Courtney
Cox (CA)
Craig
Crist
Crow
Cuellar

Eric Foner's essay here about peak polarization and the breakdown of Congress before the Civil War is worth the read.

"A fundamental necessity of democratic politics -- that each party look upon the other as a legitimate alternative government -- was destroyed." "As North and South increasingly took different paths of economic and social development and as...antagonistic value systems and ideologies grounded in the question of slavery emerged in these sections, the political system inevitably came under severe disruptive pressures."

"The principal tragedy of the Biden amendment...is that it would signal a major crumbling of Federal determination to achieve equal justice...the Biden amendment is thus a real threat not only to the gains of the sixties, but to decency in this society." [NYTimes editorial, 1975] "Biden said his amendment was designed to prevent 'Federal bureaucrats' from ordering busing...civil rights lobbyists began an immediate campaign to overturn the Biden amendment....antibusing Senators led by Helms fought to retain the original Biden restrictions." [NYTimes, 1975]