I am glad to share my recent piece for @BBCMonitoring on the origin, evolution, and recent resurgence of the central broadcasting and publishing arm of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Umar Media.

Following are a few key findings:

monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c2040o… Umar Media started operations in late 2003 in support of the Afghan Taliban in the Waziristan tribal belt of Pakistan. It was nameless for the first two years but was named "Umar Studio" after the Taliban founder Mullah Muhammad Umar in 2006 & renamed "Umar Media" in late 2010.

The Afghan Taliban ranks and files who are against the ban on women's education, mostly young officials, are tweeting after this letter,

“I only complain of my distress and grief to God.”

Sources told most are crying but no one can dare to criticize or oppose “Shaikh’s order.”

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1605239523050508289

My latest report for @voaurdu on the differences within the Afghan Taliban regarding the ban on girls' education includes an analysis of the recently revealed conflicting positions on the ban by two key Taliban leaders, Abass Stanakzai and Khalid Hanafi.
urduvoa.com/a/rift-in-tali… حال ہی میں ایک حکومتی تقریب میں طالبان کے ایک سینئر رہنما نے کھل کر لڑکیوں کی تعلیم کے حق میں آواز اٹھائی جس سے بعض مبصرین کے مطابق یہ ظاہر ہوتا ہے کہ اس معاملے پر خود طالبان کی صفوں میں موجود اختلافات اب شدت اختیار کر رہے ہیں۔

ISKP al-Azaim Media Foundation released the 10th issue of its Pashto flagship "Khurasan Ghag" (Voice of Khurasan) bi-weekly magazine. The latest issue is 70-page, dated 27 September, and includes four themes with 15 pieces. 1/7 Two lengthy essays severely criticized the Afghan Taliban for its efforts to establish diplomatic relations with the non-Muslim neighboring and western countries and foster ties with international organizations, including the United Nations. 2/7

The Afghan Taliban deputy foreign minsiter Abbas Stanikzai addressing a high level Taliban gathering in Kabul today critcized the US drone strikes in Afghanistan, declaring it an explicit violation of the US Doha Peace Agreement with the Taliban. 1/4 Sanikzai says the treaty obliges the US to provide evidence about any person who poses "an active threat" from Afghan soil, which the Taliban shall prosecute under its laws. He defines an active threat as "any person presently engaged in plotting an attack from Afghan soil." 2/4

Pakistani Taliban has published an 85-page short Urdu booklet titled "Taleem-ul-Jihad" (Teaching Jihad) for the ideological training of the militants. The author Khalid Qureshi states "a key objective is to connect the group's new generation with the national language Urdu." 1/4 Qureshi laments that most TTP militants are unfamiliar with Urdu after the deaths of educated cadres, and no attention is given to this vaccum. Therefore, he believes this book has dual significance in covering this gap besides ideological training of the young militants. 2/4

Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has claimed 27 attacks in 12 districts of Khyber Pukhtoonkhawa province in the "defensive and revenge" attacks series it announced on 2 September. These attacks do not include three claims of policemen surrendering to the TTP in the Lakki Marwat district. These districts include:
Khyber tribal district: 5
Lakki Marwat: 4
Mohmand tribal district: 3
Swat: 2
Kohat: 2
D I Khan: 2
South Waziristan tribal district: 2
Orakzai tribal district: 2
Kurram tribal district: 2
Peshawar: 1
Bajaur: 1
North Waziristan tribal district: 1

Pakistani Taliban (TTP) claimed to have carried out four attacks yesterday against the security forces in three districts of Pakistan's north-western Khyber Pukhtoonkhawa province:

1) Targeted the city police station with heavy and light weapons in Lakki Marwat. 2) Targeted a military convoy with an IED in Lakki Marwat, killed three soldiers and wounded four.
3) Wounded two soldiers in a missile attack on a military base in Khyber tribal district.
4) Assassinated an intelligence agent Saif Ullah in a targeted killing attack in Kohat.

Latest UNSC report on Al-Qaida:
Al-Qaida is considered a significant threat to international security over the long term, especially relative to ISIL-K, which poses the greater threat in the short and medium term. It is unlikely that Al-Qaida & its affiliates will seek to mount direct attacks outside Afghanistan for the near term owing to a lack of capability and restraint on the part of the Taliban, as well as an unwillingness to jeopardize their recent gains.

I am pleased to share my recent paper for @CarnegieEndow on the evolution and future of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Thanks to @pstanpolitics, @MilanV and their team for this opportunity. carnegieendowment.org/2021/12/21/evo… via The TTP serves as a crucial case study due to its deep historical roots with the Afghan Taliban, al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP). The group is a by-product of al-Qaeda’s jihadi politics in Afghanistan and Pakistan after 9/11.

The latest important piece by ⁦@sgreports⁩ on the Taliban actions for countering the ISKP. ⁦@sgreports⁩ visited the Taliban-ISKP battlefield in the Eastern Afghanistan Nangarhar province and talked to the Taliban fighters and local people: washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/… Taliban night raids against suspected Islamic State-Khorasan members are on the rise, and many of the hundreds arrested have disappeared or turned up dead, according to Jalalabad residents and Taliban fighters.

The Islamic State "Asawarte" media outlet released a latest 19-minute English propaganda documentary on declaring the Taliban the US allies in its global war against the IS. The video comes a week after a similar anti-Taliban propaganda video of ISKP local al-Azaim media. The video pays a great tribute to Osama Bin Laden and the 9/11 attacks showing that the Islamic State is the continuation of OBL ideology and the outcome of his strategy for which he carried out the 9/11 attacks.

The Shehryar Mehsud group is the fourth major TTP splinter and the 10th anti-state Pakistani militant group that merged with TTP since 5th July last year. The other three TTP splinters were, Jumat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA), and Hakeem Ullah Mehsud groups. 1/n This latest merger is a very significant development for TTP. The late 2013 infighting of Shehryar Mehsud group with Sajna Mehsud group, now led by the current TTP emir, scattered the TTP unity, which resulted in its various splinters in 2014. 2/n

A timely @USIP paper by senior Afghan expert @S_MIAKHEL analyzing the four key challenges faced by the Taliban government with four recommendations for the international community:
1) Legitimacy
2) Security
3) Governance
4) Humanitarian
usip.org/sites/default/… "First, the international community should push for access for humanitarian aid delivery, for an end to extrajudicial killings & punishments & the harassment of former govt officials, for girls’ access to education & for allowing Afghans’ freedom of movement to-from Afghanistan."

I don’t know when I will be able to write a piece on heartbreaking developments in Kabul but meantime, a thread on Islamic State Khurasan Province as I am seeing both interest and confusion about the group. 1/n As feared, the so-called Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) claimed today's devastating attack killing a dozen US soldiers and 60+ Afghan civilians. This is a big blow to US military and it also undermines Taliban's claim of having a monopoly over violence in Afghanistan. 2/n

Thanks to ⁦@TimListerCNN⁩ for including my thoughts in this ⁦@CNN⁩ report on the ISKP threat and on the future Jihadist landscape in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover of the country. cnn.com/2021/08/26/asi… “However, Abdul Syed, a researcher and author on militant movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan, says that through devastating attacks in Kabul and Jalalabad, IS-K "has transformed to a new shape for a long battle in Afghanistan."

Ehsanullah Ehsan, a TTP & JuA former spokesman, reveals some interesting information of 🇦🇫Taliban relations with the most radical anti-Pak TTP group, led by Umar Khalid Khurasani, known TTP Mohmand, separated from TTP in 2014, named itself JuA & remerged in TTP in Aug 2020. 1/7 Ehsan criticizes all such Pakistani media analyses, claiming whether the TTP Khurasani group has severe relations with the Afghan Taliban. He counts three examples as evidence that JuA enjoys good mutual relations with the Afghan Taliban inside Afghanistan. 2/7

ISKP has released a propaganda video announcing its "return in Khurasan" with a new strategy of attacks. The 27 min video bashes the Taliban on its peace negotiations with the US, criticizes Pakistan, and shows footage of its attacks in Nangarhar, Kabul, and Peshawar. 1/n The video starts with an extract from the slain TB military chief Mullah Dadullah's interview with AQ As-Sahab media conducted in 2006 strictly rejecting any Taliban option for peace negotiations with the US, saying if anyone does so, he will be targeted similar to the US. 2/n

Without naming AQ, TTP issued a statement rejecting the latest UNSC committee on AQ/ISIL report and claims that neither a "global [jihadist] organization" nor any state helped mergers of various anti-state Pakistani jihadist groups into TTP last year. 1/n

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1357523376512897025

The UNCS report published on 3rd Feb claimed that AQ moderated the TTP mergers process. The TTP statement could be surprising for many observers, but there seem two strategic aims for TTP behind releasing this statement. 2/n

The latest UNSC Committee report on AQ and IS and its associated groups and members has some latest information about both groups in Afghanistan and their relations with Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. 1/9 The report estimates TTP, ISKP, and AQ strengthen in Afghanistan, respectively, maximum 6000, 2200, and 500 respectively. The report claims that ISKP Central Asian members defected and joined IMU in Northern Afghanistan. 2/9

TTP issued a statement confirming its two senior commanders' assassination, blaming it on the Pakistani security agencies. Both originally belonged to JuA or TTP Mohmand. The statement condemns the news reports which claimed these assassinations as intra-TTP fighting. 1/6

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1350363374517952517

Several TTP senior commanders are assassinated in Kunar-Nangarhar in the last two years, but it is the first time TTP issued such a statement on these mysterious killings. The statement has three important points. 2/6