Abhishek Murarka ๐Ÿ‚๐Ÿ’น Profile picture
Trying to find signals in the investing noise. Work - IB (FS & Fintech)| Ex-student Fund Manager Edu: CA | IIML | Xaviers | Views are personal | DM open
shreyas m Profile picture Zahid Ali Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
24 Apr
Most important topic that is hardly discussed!

๐ŸšฉAt 4% fiscal deficit and 55% debt to GDP, India has a sovereign rating of BBB- (just one notch above junk)

๐Ÿ’ฒAt 18% fiscal deficit and 150% debt to GDP, USA has a sovereign rating of AAA

Something is rotten here.
To clarify a misconception:

The limited Covid response stimulus in India (1% of GDP) vs US (10%) or Japan (20%) has less to do with risk of Fiscal deficit but more to do with fear of stagflation if it doesnt bring back demand. One notch downgrade & we are junk = FDI/FII sell off
A BBB- rating is the last Investment grade rating and BB+ onwards classifies as non investment grade. Global funds of funds are not mandated to invest in sub investment grade sovereign papers. Understand the flux before criticizing.
Read 7 tweets
22 Apr
Highlight of the day - Facebook acquired 9.99% stake in Relianceโ€™s Jio platform for an investment of Rs 43,574 cr valuing it at Rs 4.36 lakh crore. That's 56% of market cap of RIL (~7.8 lakh cr) โ€“ huge right!!

A simplified thread on the deal, Jio platfrom and competition.
1/n
2/n

Landmark deal:

๐Ÿ“Largest investment for a minority stake by a technology company ANYWHERE in the world
๐Ÿ“Largest FDI in the technology sector in India.
๐Ÿ“Values Jio Platforms amongst the top 5 largest listed cos. in India
๐Ÿ“Improves India's $ reserves & fiscal balances
3/n

Deal rationale - Facebook had $50B of cash on B/S making practically no money. Deploying $5.7 bn in Jio gives them broader access to India and India 2 retail users. For Reliance, it strengthens their consumer wallet share and brings big ability to cross service clients.
Read 23 tweets
7 Apr
Quick snippets from ICRA's note on Covid-19 impact across Indian industries. Looks at it from 5 vantage points.
๐Ÿ‘‡
1. Domestic Demand Slowdown

Govt. curtailments + risk aversion to have short-term repercussions on domestic demand; recessionary trends possible in longer-term
2. Global demand Slowdown

Rapid spread of pandemic across the globe leading to country-wise lockout, and fears of an impending recession to have impact
across multiple sectors.
3. Supply Chain Impact

Supply disruptions of key imported raw materials in electronics, renewable energy, automobile and pharmaceuticals sectors
could adversely impact production even post lift of the lockdown.
Read 5 tweets
7 Apr
#Goodreads for today:

1. Thinking beyond the pandemic by @svembu. Increasingly fascinated with his thoughts and ideology. Here he writes about the overvaluation across asset classes and his disdain for financial absurdities.

2. Kishore Biyani falters again
Last week, KB almost lost majority control of Future Retail, but got saved by a court verdict that some say goes against the tenets of free markets. Good for understanding perils of pledging shares in a down market (Paywall)
themorningcontext.com/kishore-biyaniโ€ฆ
3. There is always something to learn when @_kirand writes, especially with the "intellectual honesty" this seems missing in the industry.

The angst/ truth of knowing, not knowing and everything in between.

kiraninvestsandlearns.wordpress.com/2020/04/06/theโ€ฆ
Read 14 tweets
6 Apr
#Goodreads for today:

1. Interview with Riyaazย Amlani who runs some popular #restaurants in Mumbai. Covers everything to know - the depth of bleed, skewed cost structure, low affordability in India, unit economics, Covid impact, tax issues (no GST credit)
outlookbusiness.com/amp/enterpriseโ€ฆ
2. Will India's Real estate prices finally correct?
Anarock expects an annual decline of 25-35% in home sales (top 7 cities) in 2020. Property prices may come down by 10-20% across geographies, while land prices could see an even higher reduction of 30%
livemint.com/market/mark-toโ€ฆ
3. STRONGLY recommended

"Signalling as a service" by @lehrjulian
Most of our everyday actions are some form of signalling or status seeking - brands we choose, MBA degrees, charity, etc. And how smart businesses leverage this.

julian.digital/2020/03/28/sigโ€ฆ
Read 11 tweets
4 Apr
Some #goodreads:

1. The Luckin Coffee saga -
2. Covid-19 an inflection point for Life Insurance
bloombergquint.com/business/covidโ€ฆ
3. Little book that builds wealth - summary
blas.com/the-little-booโ€ฆ
4. List of geatest speeches of all time
jamesclear.com/great-speeches
5. Durgesh Shah session:
Video:
Notes: cfasocietyindia.com/2018/12/14/sesโ€ฆ

6. Thread on CARE's assessment by sectors


7. Fast bowlers are not thinking for themselves
thecricketmonthly.com/story/816387/-โ€ฆ

8. Understanding VIX
9. Market meltdown, the virus and other actionables
forum.valuepickr.com/t/market-meltdโ€ฆ

10. My first decade as a full time investor- Notes by @drudaicheema
investorsingh.com/my-first-decadโ€ฆ

11. Polycab India: Switching gears
forbesindia.com/article/work-iโ€ฆ

12. Why time has slowed
collaborativefund.com/blog/why-time-โ€ฆ
Read 6 tweets
2 Apr
1/25

Covid-19 has created a proverbial 'perfect storm'. While we are fighting an unprecedented medical crisis, the after-effects of this pandemic will have far-reaching implications.

A #thread on a commonly heard legal term - #ForceMajeure and its' business ramifications
๐Ÿ‘‡
2/25

First, here is why I think this topic is relevant. Google trends for the search term โ€œForce Majeureโ€ shows an exponential rise, the highest in last 16 years. A comparison with the search term โ€œrecessionโ€ shows little to no correlation with 2008-09 crisis.

Letโ€™s see why.
3/25

Have divided the thread in three parts:
a) Concept & genesis (4-6) โ€“ One may skip to b) if aware/ not keen
b) Facts & current developments across industries (7-17)
c) Inference & future implications (18-25)

Note: Not an expert on legal matters and sharing basis my reading
Read 28 tweets
16 Mar
One key learning from 2008 crisis is that good companies came out stronger at the end of it.

With this objective, have compiled financial and market data of 62 market leaders (>30% market share in resp. industries) for analysis. Sharing in thread.

Part 1 - Auto+anc. & alcohol
Part 2 - Consumer, consumption and FMCG
Part 3 - Chemicals, commodity, Engineering & Manufacturing, Pharma, Healthcare, Exchanges.
Read 8 tweets
20 Feb
Who really owns the customer will be the cornerstone of successful businesses in the future.

Is it Amazon or the listed merchant?
Is it Swiggy or the restaurant?

Sharing 2 brilliant reads on how changing principal-agent relationships will determine winners of the future.
Making sense of the new capitalists by @hchawlah

Long form but must read for anyone who has mocked start-ups for their losses and valuations. Might change your perspective a bit.

foundingfuel.com/article/makingโ€ฆ
Own the demand, written by an Uber product manager: "If given the choice to own all my inputs except demand, or own only demand and no other input, Iโ€™d pick the latter in a heartbeat."
florentcrivello.com/index.php/2018โ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
4 Aug 19
#Thread
Been reading a bunch of Annual Reports last few days. Creating this thread to capture and share interesting tidbits from the ones I am reading this season. Will be updated on an ongoing basis next few weeks.

1/n
2. Few bluechips have reported their #EconomicValueAdded (EVA), a good measure of shareholder value creation. HUL AR does a great job of explaining details. EVA as % avg capital employed over a period of time can be a good leading indicator. Pidilite also shares EVA details
3. Chairman's letter+MD&A section of top 2/3 key players provide great overview of economy and sector dynamics.
Few suggested section reads are HUL, Kotak, PEL, Sterlite Tech, Everest Ind+Visaka, Godrej Prop, OCCL, Hikal, Aavas, RBL, L&T Infotech, Zydus Wellness.

Suggest more!
Read 7 tweets
4 Aug 19
Recent Ambit report suggests a bearish outlook and that any 'turnaround' is distant. Sharing some data points below that merits broader dissemination. ๐Ÿ‘‡

1/n
1. India's corporate profits to GDP ratio has been falling for a decade with profit and wage growth being at mutli-year lows. From being ~6% of GDP in 2008-09, we are down to ~2.5%. Comparisons with 2009 recovery may be wrong.
2. Capex revival has taken a u-turn. Top 100 companies have decided to pull back on investments in FY20 and FY21, an important leading indicator. Also, Central government capex is set to contract by 1% in FY20 vs 10% growth in FY19.
Read 10 tweets
10 Nov 18
1/n
A tweet thread on my key takeaways and learnings from the book "Of Long Term Value and Wealth Creation from Equity Investing" by the brilliant Bharat Shah. The book is a repository of condensed wisdom from 3 decades of his investing career โ€“ a must read!
[RT if helpful]
2/n
Essential principles of investing have largely remained unchanged over history of organized investing. What has changed is the interpretation and application by investors, as deemed convenient or expedient at a particular point in time.
3/n
Investing is simple, but not easy.
Simple, because it's not difficult to understand the essential principles of investing- a large opportunity, accretive earnings growth, high character & a certain degree of predictability. Not easy, because the required discipline is rare.
Read 45 tweets
8 May 18
#Credencestalktalk
Company: Raminfo Ltd (Previously Ram Informatics)
CMP: Rs. 41; Mcap: Rs. 26 Cr (Microcap category)
Business: E-governance services, Banking and Defense services
Triggers: 1. New high profile management (ISB-MBA, ex-Mckinsey); 2. Business turnaround in progress.
2/n
History: 24 year old business. Use to trade at ~300 levels before Dot com bust.
Current scenario: Management change in 2014 when RRAS (large shareholder) invoked pledge & acquired shares from promoters. On an aggressive new growth trajectory ever since new mgmt took over.
3/n
Highlights:
a. Good mgmt team: One of the most important parameters for identifying multibaggers at early stage is the quality of management. The new MD & Chairman Mr. Srinath Reddy is an MBA from ISB, ex-Mckinsey Consulting and ex-BoD of Bodhtree, platinum Salesforce partner
Read 16 tweets
30 Apr 18
๐Ÿ’ชA thread on amazing Twitter threads ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ‘‡
In the process of revamping my #Twitter profile (dormant earlier), I have come to appreciate the wonderful underutilized platform it is!
Some threads contain crisp knowledge capsules that can help many. Starting 1 on such curated content
1. I largely rely on this: threadreaderapp.com to find content
2. What I wish to share is what coincides largely with my interests- #Learning, #Investing, #Behavioralpsychology (#mentalmodels, #bias, etc), #Businessbooks, Industry insights/case studies, Life experiences, etc
3/n
While it will be difficult to structure the order of content here, I will try to block threads by category (as noted above & more). Feel free to comment with any good thread that you would have come across. Cumulative learning always helps.
#vicariouslearning
Read 37 tweets
25 Apr 18
Some useful resources that I use for results tracking & market analysis
(feel free to RT)
Earning call audio bit.ly/2qWnGtv
Alerts & Order wins @equitybulls @shareduniaindia @viewstocks_in
Market update & analysis @ToshniwalEquity @BTVI
Concall summary @Investorwhizz
Continuation..
Amazing investment material @VenkateshJayar2
Amazing interpretation (humbled) @Gautam__Baid, @farnamstreet @jvembuna (amongst other stalwarts)
Microcap coverage @Arunstockguru's bit.ly/2HtVC6Q
SME stocks @nid_rockz
All things markets @alphaideas
Part 3
Global podcast (best playlist ever): @PrestonPysh's bit.ly/2qYivII
India focused podcast: @shyamsek's blog bit.ly/2Jtz3A1
Business journalism: @r0h1n's @TheKenWeb, @pankajontech's @factordaily
Trading (not my cup): @nooreshtech @niftywizard @sahneydeepak
Read 8 tweets