This is actually what he said:
Even if we presume that the FM DID say that war is inevitable, which he did NOT, then shouldn't you be assessing the claim instead of taking it as the truth?
Is war really inevitable? No.
Could we do something? Yes.
Is it to build subs to target China? I doubt it.
Sep 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The problem with 中国历史研究院课题组's 明清时期“闭关锁国”问题新探 (in 《历史研究》) is not that its arguments are untenable. I've got no problem with the core academic argument (that "isolationism" is the wrong overarching label for Ming/Qing foreign policy), but...
rather what the controversy surrounding the article tells us about the politicisation of academic research, and the selective lensthrough that we view such products...
First, on politicisation of research. I don't need to go into this beyond saying...
Aug 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This rumour about "Li up Xi doesn't go gone" sounds implausible to me. Xi didn't build everything for himself just so that he can hand over the party chief role to Li Keqiang. Also, we didn't see indications of Li's rising star post-Beidaihe.
In this scenario, Xi would retain state president and CMC Chairman positions and Li would be General Secretary. Out of the three, GS is the one with the most power. I can't imagine this would be Xi's preferred outcome.
History resolution already foreshadows what is to come...
Aug 20, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The nationalist backlash against Beijing's "soft" response to Pelosi's visit and recent controversies surrounding influential nationalist public commentators (Sima Nan, 冈本六君子, etc) highlights the danger of feeding the beast of nationalism...
In the aftermath of Tiananmen, the Party-state tried to bolster its legitimacy through "patriotic education" & appeal to nationalism.
Under Xi, Beijing redoubled this effort to make up for slowing economic growth & mobilise public support for internal and external challenges...
Aug 19, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Li Keqiang laid flowers at the feet of Deng's statue & praised "reform and opening up" during his visit to Shenzhen following Beidaihe. He evocatively declared that"the course of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers can not be reversed."
His words and actions underline his impotence...
These are the actions/words of a man found wanting against greater forces, and trying to leave his mark on the public memory. It is Li's way of saying that he tried but failed, and this is goodbye...
Aug 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Post-Beidaihe choreography suggests that Hu Chunhua will be premier come March next year. There was not many candidates in the first place; only one person went to premier directly without serving as vice: Zhou Enlai.
Out of the incumbent vice premiers, only Hu would he under the retirement age come 20th Party Congress. Li Qiang and Chen Miner, while both close to Xi, nevertheless lack experience for the position, including time serving as vice premier.
Dec 10, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Beijing has rushed through the National People's Congress on the final day of the sitting session a new law giving security agencies sweeping powers.
It gives new powers for the govt to track, surveil and interrogate citizens. Children as young as 14...
can be interrogated by security agents and journalists could face up to 5 years of prison for refusing to reveal sources.
Sep 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Nathan, you said that a number of people tried to "discredit" and/or "misrepresent" the ASPI report. I want to ask you a basic question: how do you draw the line b/w legitimate critical engagement w/ the report the one hand...
and efforts to "discredit" &/or "misrepresent" it. I'm sure you'd agree that its perfectly legitimate & natural for the veracity of any research to be challenged. But when we say that others are trying to "discredit/misrepresent", then correct me if I'm wrong, that implies...
Sep 25, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The apparent banning of 2 Australian researchers in retaliation of recent Aust govt revoking the visa of 2 Chinese academics highlight how political friction is poisoning the broader bilateral relations, inc research collaboration & P2P exchanges...
Its high time that both Beijing and Canberra reflect on the cycle of retaliation and escalation that is causing relations to deteriorate to the lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations bw Australia and PRC...
Sep 18, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The released document "Opinion on strengthening the united front work of the private economy in the new era"关于加强新时代民营经济统战工作的意见 is a significant document for a number of reasons. In addition to showing the Party's intensifying focus on tightening grip over...
the private sector, it also, in my opinion hails new ways that the Party is approaching United Front work. Up to this point, united front work is categorised according to their targets (minor parties, non-party aligned elite, minority, religious people etc)...
Sep 17, 2020 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Beijing has just released a new white paper on employment & labor rights in Xinjiang. It aims squarely at countering international condemnations of its policies in XJ, portraying them as advancing human rights instead of as abuses. Narrative war over Xinjiang continues...
1/
WP frames work as a fundamental human right, one that Beijing has achieved great results since 2012. Instead of violations, BJ argues that its policies are actually advancing human rights in Xinjiang.
...to UF theories/debates since the early 2000s, its overwhelming internally focused. Its about how to cement support for party domestically in an environment of rapid social and economic changes, including with the rise of so-called new social stratas.
Party thinking about UF..
Sep 14, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Xi has very little support among princelings atm.
Going after Ren Zhiqiang has really pissed people off. Bo Xilai got done bec he lost a political struggle, which everyone understood & accepted as the nature of the system (胜者为王 败者为寇), but Ren is a princeling...
and his case is different. Xi by going after Ren is sending a clear message to princelings in the lead up to 5th plenum that dissent will be punished. Whereas princelings feel that they have the sole right to criticize the system because China is their realm 江山...
Aug 29, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
"there is no suggestion Professor Guo or Mr Liu has engaged in wrongdoing or misused their positions."
Rights, that's why the insinuations of betraying Australia's national interest instead direct accusations.
In addition to assessing PLA reform/modernisation, we focus in on evidence of widespread shortcomings (that are repeatedly discussed in PLA media)...
Aug 4, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Maree, let's do a thought experiment to illustrate my point. Imagine I run an Chinese language newspaper in Australia. My employees are current or former CCP members. While there is no evidence that I have any overt financial links with Beijing, my editorial line...
is said to mirror Beijing's talking points. Also me and my staff have positions with so-deemed "UF linked" groups. My photos have been taken with visiting UF cadres. Nick McKenzie exposes me to the world as a lackey of Beijing. Do you think this is fair?
@yun_aus and I look at US-China relations (Tiktok, Xinjiang sanctions, engagement vs competition), the Fifth Plenum announcement, Lee Teng-hui and developments in HK.
On Xinjiang sanctions, we give some history and background on its target, the strange beast that is the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps
Aug 1, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Maree, with all due respect, VT Australia is now complaining about the kind of journalistic behaviour that it has consistently & unswervingly supported in Aust's China debate. Let's change the name of individuals, orgs & issues in your chief editors piece and see how it reads.
If VT wants to apply a standard in judging the journalistic behaviour of others then that standard should be consistently regardless of whether the issue is FLG or CCP influence.
Before I'm accused of "whataboutism" by the intellectually lazy...
Jul 17, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
54 years ago almost to this day Mao made his famous swim across the Yangtze in Wuhan. The message was clear: he was ready to lead a final revolution, one that would echo through eternity. The madness of the Cultural Revolution that ensued would leave deep wounds..
on China that to this day remain unhealed. The patterns of China's recent past is all too evident in developments today. Whether intentionally or not, the party under Xi has made an important announcement exactly 54 years after Mao's infamous swim...
Jul 11, 2020 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Most people trace Mao's conception of the "United Front" to his words in the inauguration issue 发刊词 of the Party serial The Communist 《共产党人》published on Oct 4, 1939. But actually, we know that he spoke about UF earlier. Eg., on July 7th that year, in a speech to...
students from Northern Shaanxi Public School who were about to head to the frontlines to support the war effort, he gave the students 3 magical weapons (united front, guerrilla warfare, unity around the revolutionary core)...
Jul 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
This whole 不忘初心 thingy goes back to the conversation between Mao and 黄炎培, who said while visiting Yan'an:
