#China will attempt a forceful unification with #Taiwan by 2021, the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi's grand dream of national rejuvenation entails unifying all that #CCP considers Chinese lands, especially Taiwan.
This THREAD looks at this potential scenario.
The legitimacy of the #CCP regime under Xi is based on the twin pillars of economic growth and nationalism. For the party-state, unifying the mainland and Taiwan is critical to its aspirations of national rejuvenation and erasure of national humiliation.
Why would PRC force a unification as early as 2021? 1) 2021 is the centenary of the #CCP; anniversaries and dates have massive symbolic importance in China's political culture. 2) Xi wants unification to be part of his legacy. This is the only way that he can outshine #Mao.
China will try to avoid military adventurism because of the lesson highlighted by American examples. But in the yrs ahead, it will find itself pulled towards foreign military entanglements because of its rapid expanding interests and footprint around the world.
China's military, #PLA, is increasingly called upon to protect China's interests around the globe, including along the routes of the #BRI with its share of unstable polities. The rapid modernisation of the #PLA will enable China to project power much more effectively
The combination of the demand for #PLA to project its power in advancing China's interests globally as well as its modernising capabilities mean that the #PLA will be more likely than ever to be pulled into a foreign military entanglement.