Semi-retiredly shitposting online, on a different blue website
Mar 12, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
What the Fed/FDIC did just now, for dummies:
1)Every depositor (including the unsecured) gets paid in full, using bank taxes (no taxpayer $). This is cool bc unsecured depositors would prob only get 95% back otherwise, but mostly a bunch of libertarians freaked out over nothing.
2)Equity and stockholders go to 0, management is fired, etc etc. This is also cool, for obvious reasons.
Mar 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What’s happening here is not 2008. It’s closer to 1929, but not, like, the really ugly parts. Just a classic bank run on a bunch of fundamentally solvent but illiquid banks that temporarily can’t handle it.
The Fed can fix this with one sentence — “we’re buying our bonds back, bitches” — but that’s QE which we don’t currently want, even though it’s a massively profitable trade. The government would literally be buying back its own bonds at a discount lol.
Mar 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
On TA —
There was a time when TA was a self fulfilling prophecy that worked in crypto because everyone in the tiny market believed in it. That time passed years ago. You’re not gonna find a TA wizard who predicted this move except accidentally, bc it came from macro conditions.
But the very base layer of TA is just support/resistance (and some 200 IQ orderflow shit that I don’t understand anyway so you’re not either, anon.) It does not take wonder chart magic to know crypto (read: retail apes) love round numbers, so set the mega support at 20k.
May 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Short tweet series about why UST is still at 60c while LUNA is 2c and going lower:
1/x
It's to do with degens trying to long LUNA.
Due to the burn/redemption mechanism still working on the website, it's still profitable to buy UST, burn it for $1 of LUNA and then immediately sell the LUNA. This will never stop as long as the website is up.
2/x
Mar 14, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
The upcoming year in Russia is going to be hell on earth. A thread...
1/x
At the beginning of the invasion virtually everybody inc. me got the next week wildly wrong. We all thought Ukraine would be crushed in a week or two. Instead the incredibly underprepared + undersupplied Russian army is going to lose.
2/x
Sep 19, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Some thoughts on $HBAR and other blockchains like it:
The tech might be real, but the market doesn't worry about this stuff in 2019 and probably won't in 2020 either. OTOH, the #tokenomics are beyond brutal.
1/x
They initially raised (some large number) at ultra low (sub 1c) valuations, locked for 4 years. They then raised $100M+ at between 9-12c, mostly locked between 8 mo/4 years w. some immediate release.
The total supply is due to increase about 1000% from 2019-2023.
2/x
Aug 15, 2019 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Today's GE whistleblower news is pretty big at first glance but this report is 175 pages. So I'm gonna tweet a live summary of this thing out to my 75 followers because I have no life 1/x
Report URL: fm.cnbc.com/applications/c…
Page 1: 95% of GE's entire insurance business is 8 deals. On its own, sounds not great, not terrible. The report claims massive losses on all 8 (impressive) 2/x
