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https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/status/1474061526604468225?s=20
https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/status/1468496956020252672?s=20. With data up to 16th Dec, SUTRA prediction of trajectory matches well so far. There seems to be broad agreement that Omicron arrived in October in SA. If true, our earlier assumption that Omicron arrived in August causing a jump in contact rate is incorrect. So how did Omicron change parameter values?
https://twitter.com/MenonBioPhysics/status/1451448521538752515?s=20). It makes many important points regarding epidemiological modeling. In this thread, I am going to develop his analysis further and show what is the purpose of SUTRA model. A key point made is that epidemiological models stratify population on age basis since interactions vary widely with age. Further stratification is done between mild and seriously ill cases. Former is useful to make policy decisions about controlling the spread.
https://twitter.com/thattai/status/1388487287592296452Policy makers do not make decisions based on one input. They collect them from multiple sources. While we did give our feedback to them last month, and it was received graciously, they were skeptical about our predictions. Seemingly they had better inputs. 😊
https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/status/1383825232952057859?s=19
https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/status/1369005212875157505We had to wait for a couple of weeks for the new trajectory to stabilize. Here is what we found: the spike observed in many states is primarily due to a significant increase in contact rate (parameter beta). This parameter determines how fast the pandemic is spreading. 2/n