Loads to say about Labour's Brown report but as an exercise in social science, that polling is just 🧐

Here is my very on brand 🧵

1. If you're drafting a doc on the whole of the UK - indeed on the union - why Why *WHY* not poll in Northern Ireland? And why only n=500 in Wales? If it was clear it was going to be so central to the report, why not shave off some English respondents for Wales so you can at least disagg a bit? But also, was the view that NI atts were unknowable? What an odd comment on the union in a report ON the union. Don't get it. At all

🧵And now, my attempt to convince you that Lothians has something for everyone.

1 You've got 3 of the seats represented by 3 different parties since 1999: Ed Southern, Central and Pentlands

Ed Southern stands out as its Westminster counterpart hosts Scotland's only Lab MP. Ed Pentlands was the site of Con constituency recovery in 2003. After the Scottish map drained itself of blue from the top down, that reappearance emerged in the south and EdP (the Westminster seat was also Malcolm Rifkind's when he was SoS)

🧵On where we are as a union (and the enduring challenge for Labour) - a quick look at S, W and Eng

1 General pattern in Scotland is that the SNP is doing well for a party in government so long, with unionist manouevres not quite managing to translate volatility into seat gains. The party that is perceived to best stand up for Scotland (and this is an issue where they're streets ahead of competitors) is winning, if not making large gains.

2 In Wales, by contrast, Welsh Labour's soft nationalism is managing to ride the indy wave without losing

Missing election night count? I bring to you a @ScotVoting Election Night Quiz @EdinburghPIR @merylkenny @AlanConvery @marcgeddes @ProfJMitchell @McEwen_Nicola @CCC_Research @PoliticalBibby @markdiffley1 @shephard_mark @HzBrandenburg

5 rounds, from The Basics to Full SES Geek Winner gets bragging rights & chance to co-chair the Constituency Christmas Carol round if @EdinburghPIR are silly enough to let me run it again.

Answers posted Sat
@robjohns75 @cjcarman @chrishanretty @Jaclarner @frasmcm @niceonecombo @MalcH @ClarkAlistairJ

Killing time waiting for @ScotVoting SES data to drop so here, unrequested, are my 10 #ScottishElections2021 things to watch for as the results roll in over the weekend

1 Turnout – polling figures (8,9,10/10 likely to vote) highly variable but some down on like-for-like polls in 2016 suggesting turnout could dip below 50.

Last time, around ¾ of folks returned their postal votes. Interested to see what the highest ever request for postal ballots does to turnout.

How to sort #sqaresults debacle, an exasperated thread from someone teaching stats for the past 20 years @MrMcEnaney @LucyHunterB @DJohnsonMSP

First principles:
1 no detriment

2 student performance not that of cohort or socio-ec circs should be relevant

1/n 3 assume teachers are capable of professional judgement

4 if estimation errors, assume underestimation is more damaging to prospects

2/

So @DrAmandaConroy 's tweet got me thinking about admin and teaching in Canada vs the UK so I give to you, a 4 tweet thread about the diffs between teaching in Canada and what you have to do in the UK (n=1, me)

If you inherit a course, here's what you have to do: Assignments and marking?