Short thread on UK All Cause Death Date. One issue with looking at official #COVID data is that they are deaths with people who had a positive COVID test within 28 days. This causes issues in ascertaining mortality burden of COVID in an environment of mass testing. Excess death data helps solve this issue but also problematic as need to account for lockdown deaths.
One way to disentangle this is to look at the gender + age profile of all cause mortality. COVID deaths have a fingerprint. It kills more men than women + age of death is higher.

#Sweden what explains decline in deaths #SocialDistancing or #herdimmunity. In all regions that had typical curve, daily death peaked when total deaths = 0.02-0.04% of pop (yellow Bars) @MLevitt_NP2013 @AlistairHaimes @FatEmperor @EffectsFacts @gummibear737 @GunnarBj I've omitted last 2w to remove reporting lag. Region by region lets look. First - Stockholm

@deb_cohen @carlheneghan I'll post my analysis tonight, busy building models for actual job. But I think I might disagree based on my initial look, but need to dig a bit deeper as Chris Giles is obv very smart man. @deb_cohen @carlheneghan So looking at the FT model, what they have done is to say – all excess deaths can be attributed to COVID. While this isn’t necessarily true, let’s go with it for the sake of argument.
The ONS excess deaths data is available weekly and shows the total deaths registered that week.