Political Editor @BloombergUK awickham8@bloomberg.net
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Jul 5 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read
Keir Starmer is trapped between Labour and the bond market with nowhere to go
It could wreck his premiership
A person close to No10 says there are “100 Liz Trusses” in the party who don’t understand the public finances
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— Labour MPs have shown they can’t stomach spending cuts and that they’re able to wrest control of fiscal policy from Reeves
— that’s of major concern to global investors worried about rising govt debt who have the power to send borrowing costs surging
— it even led some insiders to question whether he and Reeves would survive until the next election (!) a suggestion that would have been unfathomable a few months ago
Keir Starmer plans a series of announcements in the coming months focused on the economy, NHS, migration and crime to show he is delivering for voters
Morgan McSweeney wants to put the govt on a permanent campaign footing
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— the strategy is to tell a more positive and retail-friendly story in an effort to show the govt has learned lessons from the first 100 days
— new operation will be more political and focus relentlessly on what data and polling shows swing voters want
Labour ministers are urging Keir Starmer not to turn his back on business
They’re increasingly concerned the government’s messaging and policies since winning power are losing the confidence of companies and investors
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— after declaring Labour the “party of business,” Starmer and Reeves risk reversing that progress in their first months in office, MPs and aides warn
— 9 days out from the investment summit, consumer and corporate sentiment is falling and GDP stagnating
*UK authorities suspect foreign state actors used bots and fake accounts to amplify the FarRightThugsUnite hashtag and other posts on X
*Russians also seen bragging about infiltrating far-right UK Telegram channels
Story with @elthorn22 >>>
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— the “FarRightThugsUnite” hashtag was used by right-wing activists and real Britons to complain about the use of that label
— the trend saw them post photos of themselves doing everyday activities to try to counter the idea that they’re extremists
* how aides fear Rachel Reeves losing credibility in Monday’s black hole speech
* the push against sweeping tax rises
* but MPs will lobby for 2-child cap changes at budget
* No10’s zero tolerance vs Continuity Corbyn
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— Reeves risks cries of dishonesty from the Tories and the Labour left on Monday when she details a £20b fiscal black hole
— Labour aides admit the speech is a tricky balancing act
Keir Starmer told Giorgia Meloni in a 1-1 chat on migration at EPC: “These were hard conversations to have with my party”
Early signs, on 2 child benefit+SpAd jobs too, some strains of opposition are carrying over to govt
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— Starmer had good convos with Biden, Macron and Scholz in his first two weeks, but allies say his chief objective as PM is to avoid their fate at the hands of the populist right
— Trump’s comeback seen as proof he isn’t guaranteed a second term
🔵 Sunak/No10 aides blasted over PMQs. Kemi/Penny accused of manoeuvres. Plotters plan next salvo
🔴 Sue Gray’s leaks fury. Blame game aims at Lucy Powell v pro-Reeves hawks
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— Sunak and his top No10 aides are accused by other Tories of being bad at politics after his Piers Morgan handshake and PMQs trans joke
— even a loyalist admits he’s slow to react under pressure
— fears he could fall apart in a ‘presidential’ campaign
Some Tory MPs — even Rishi Sunak allies — are starting to fear a worst-case scenario: electoral wipeout
They’re asking: what if the polls just don’t narrow?
Ie. What if it’s not Major 92 or 97, but more like Canada 93?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— conventional wisdom is that polls will close as we get nearer election day, with Tory strategists hoping to get the gap down to single figures
— but some are starting ask the unthinkable: what if that just doesn’t happen and Labour’s lead isn’t soft?
How Rishi Sunak went from being a sceptic of the Rwanda plan — and instinctively relaxed about high legal migration — to betting his political future on a policy he never loved
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— When Priti Patel first proposed Rwanda in spring 2022, chancellor Sunak didn’t think much of it
— Sunak and the Treasury privately expressed doubts on logistical, value for money and ethical grounds, according to six people involved in the policy work
— Rishi Sunak is now polling **worse than Liz Truss** with the key voters who decided the last election
— Sunak has presided over a “year of decline” that’s caused an “implosion” in the Tory vote, according to a major study by @JLPartnersPolls
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
— @JLPartnersPolls analysed 12 months plus of polls by nine polling companies to plot voting intention of key 2019 Tory voters
— they say this gives a deeper and more nuanced assessment of true public opinion
NEW: Rishi Sunak’s reshuffle opens a deep rift with the Tory right and sparks criticism that he doesn’t have a coherent political strategy
— Right-wingers accuse the PM of a purge. They spent the day plotting how to fight Sunak *before* the election
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🛒 one Tory official says Sunak is the new trolley, lurching from reset to reset, tacking to the right recently on net zero and culture war rhetoric, now curiosly moving to the centre with Cameron
🛥️ MP says he’s a yacht listing from right to left
