حسابات الفوز والخسارة في حرب إيران وإسرائيل الأولى… هذه مواجهة ما بعد الظل، إسرائيل تحمل أهدافا عديدة، تدمير النووي، تدمير الصاروخي، وإسقاط النظام. أما إيران هدفها واحد، الصمود. لذلك في حسابات الفوز والخسارة، نجد إسرائيل تلجأ إلى ترامب لاستدراجه ولو لتنفيذ ضربة يمكن أن تشكل صورة النصر، إلا وهي ضربة فوردو. بغض النظر عن نتيجة الحرب، إلا أن فوردو اصبحت عنوانا للضربة الكبرى، في الوقت الذي يعلم المتابع للشأن الإيراني أن الوكالة الإيرانية للطاقة الذرية نقلت جزءاً كبيراً من المعدات والمواد مسبقا إلى خارج المنشأة.

سلسلة تغريدات سريعة عن آخر التطورات في المنطقة والخطوات الأميركية:
🚩 للتأسيس، ما يحدث اليوم هو نتيجة طبيعية لتراكم الضربات الاسرائيلية على المحور الذي تقوده إيران خلال الأشهر الماضية. وهو الخطوة الأخيرة في خطة نتنياهو لضرب ما يصفه بالأخطبوط الإيراني من خلال قطع الأذرع ومن ثم الاجهاز على الرأس. السؤال الأكبر هنا:
🚩 هل تريد إسرائيل توجيه ضربة لبرنامج إيران النووي، أم تسعى مع الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها لضعضعة النظام تمهيدا لسيناريو مشابه للعراق 2003؟
يصعب التكهن بما تتضمنه الخطة، لكن يبدو جليا أن إسرائيل تريد منع أي فرضية تسمح باستعادة إيران للمبادرة واعادة تنظيم صفوف المحور.

Our latest piece, co-authored by @mashabani and me, explores Hezbollah, Iran, and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.
In brief, the sudden and unforeseen downfall of the Assad dynasty signals the end of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance as it once was, along with the significant leverage it had amassed in the Levant. First and foremost, Russia played a pivotal role as events unfolded. According to one high-ranking regional diplomatic source, Assad’s recent visit to Moscow was a turning point.

Israel's actions against Hezbollah go beyond simply targeting its commanders; they are dismantling the trust between the group and its surrounding community, which has always believed they were safeguarded by a highly professional military and security apparatus.

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1837158411051426165

This isn’t anymore a limited confrontation, it’s complex and multilayered war that involves technology, psychological warfare, military attacks, and clandestine operations, all without any sort of redlines. The rules of engagement are gradually vanishing.

This is a thread about AlQassam’s commander Mohammed Deif. Israel said it killed him but Hamas continues to deny the claim. Who’s Mohammed Deif, the actor who became the most wanted man to Israel.

For over twenty years, Mohammed Deif served as the leader of the Ezzedine Al Qassam brigades, Hamas's military wing. Israel has described him as "the son of death" and targeted him in numerous assassination attempts, one of which tragically killed his wife and son.

This is a thread about Yehya Sinwar, Hamas’ new political leader. The picture is from his teens when he was a student at the Islamic University.
Six decades before, in 1962, Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in southeastern Gaza. His family were refugees from Majdal Askalan, or what became Ashkelon after the creation of Israel in 1948.

Regardless of who’s responsible for the rocket that killed 14 civilians in Majdal Shams including children, whether it’s an Israeli iron dome malfunction or a Hezbollah missile that the group is denying. There have been several similar incidents on the Lebanese side during the past 10 months. Almost 100 Lebanese civilians have been killed by Israeli attacks. These are some of them: 1- Oct. 13, 23. Israeli tanks attack journalists killing Reuters Issam AlAbdallah and injuring several reporters.
2- Nov. 5, 23. Israeli airstrike hit two civilian cars in Lebanon carrying members of the same family driving between the towns of Aynata and Aitaroun killing one women, 3 of her granddaughters between the ages of 10 and 14, and severely injured her daughter.

According to Israeli daily “Israel Hayom” an Israeli military base was targeted by a suicide drone, ambulances rushed to the scene. Iraqi group Kataib AlNujabaa claimed responsibility for an attack on a “vital target” in Israel.

This is not the first time that Eilat is targeted, in November 2023 the Israeli army said a drone launched from Syria crashed into a school in Eilat.
timesofisrael.com/idf-strikes-sy…

It’s been 5 months since the war, and the Lebanese front is no different when it comes to the wider conflict. The depth of exchanges on the border has varied over time. Yet there were three targets that Hezbollah had hit with high significance, the Mount Meron air control base, the Northern Command HQ in Safed, and the Golan. As for Safed, there was no claim of responsibility, Meron has been hit several times now, and it’s a strategic target, but what about The Golan? The significant difference here is that it’s the first time since 1973 that the occupied territory has been under continuous attacks, that’s a clear indication that Hezbollah has decided to expand horizontally is a response to Israel’s vertical expansion of attacks.

عن ضربة صفد التي لم يصدر حولها بيان تبنٍ ، رغم انها الأقسى على إسرائيل في الشمال منذ بداية الحرب.
تعيدنا هذه الضربة بالذاكرة إلى المسيرة التي استهدفت مدرسة في إيلات في شهر تشرين الثاني 2023. حينها أعلنت إسرائيل ابتداء أن الهجوم لم يحدد من أين، لتقول لاحقاً إنها انطلقت من سورية دون تحديد الجهة المسؤولة عنها. كان لافتاً أن أمين عام حزب الله لم يتطرق نهائيا للضربة في صفد، تماما كما في حالة مدرسة إيلات، كذلك فإن إسرائيل لم تعلق بعد على الهجوم ولا على مصدره بشكل مفصل خارج اطار إعلان عدد الاصابات وموقع الهجوم.

Quick observations from Nasrallah’s speech:
1- showcasing attacks from around the region, IRQ, YMN, SYR, and LEB, Nasrallah was talking as the commander of the axis. @amwajmedia revealed that Nasrallah is the one who’s calling shots regionally for the axis
amwaj.media/article/axis-g…

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1723344794787651669

2- regarding the Lebanese front, Nasrallah is still keeping a distance between it being tactical front and his strategic goals, yet left the door open for more escalation.

My two cents on Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s speech:
1- It’s clear that Nasrallah is hiniting this war is a long war, at least this what he and his group are anticipating. So the speech for him was an “Establishing the Argument” before the next one a week later. 2- That’s why he didn’t exhaust himself in threatening but drew his redlines for Gaza and away, in what could be described as calculated ambiguity, he invested great time in establishing a narrative, he knew there’ll be a big audience, and that’s why he exploited the moment to send messages to the main players, rather than acting as a populist leader.

الجبهة اللبنانية، ما الذي يحدث؟
أستطيع أن أقول بثقة أننا الآن في المرحلة الثالثة من المستوى الأول من التصعيد.
1- عمق الجبهة على جانبي الحدود توسع إلى ما لا يقل عن 10 كيلومترات، وهذا يبدو جليا من خلال قصف إسرائيل لقرى مثل زبقين والريحان والشعيتية والقليلة وغيرها. 2- شهدت المراحل السابقة تمديدًا تدريجيًا من 2 كم إلى 5 كم. الآن نرى ايضا حزب الله والفصائل الأخرى في لبنان وقد بدأوا في شن هجمات حتى عمق 14 كيلومترًا (روش بينا). كما دمرت الصواريخ التي أعلنت قوات الفجر انها ضربتها على كريات شمونا احد المباني السكنية.

The Lebanese front, what's happening?
I can confidently say we're now in the third phase of the escalation.
1- depth of hostilities on both sides of the border is extended to at least 10 kilometers. 2- the previous phases saw a gradual extension from 2 km to 5 km. Now we can see Israel targeting towns in the depth of south Lebanon, some 16 km from the border.

So where are we after almost two weeks of tension💥on Lebanon’s 🇱🇧 southern border:
1- Israel and Hezbollah are still prisoners of the post 2006 counter deterrence that's playing well in Lebanon’s favour whereas the escalation is still contained within few kilometers on both sides. 2- Hezbollah’s main objective has been exerting pressure to delay or prevent the ground offensive, while signaling to Israel's main backers, namely the US, that the fate of Hamas is linked to regional security. Hence, the axis of resistance will not allow Hamas to sink.

It was a moment words fail to describe. I couldn't even film more than a few seconds when we arrived at the place where our colleagues were targeted. We lost our colleague Issam Al-Abdullah and others were injured. We were together before we parted. Since the morning, we'd agreed to stay close for safety. Then the sounds of explosions started from 'Alma Al-Shaab'. We separated. For some reason, Issam was the last I saw before heading to Alma's outskirts. He said the bombing was intense; we thought we'd find safety.

Iran’s FM @Amirabdolahian in an interview with Ofogh TV:
If the opportunity is lost, there's no escape from opening new fronts against the Israel. Time is running out, and the resistance has the capability to engage in long-term wars with the enemy. AmirAbdollahian: Any preemptive action by the resistance axis or the Islamic Republic of Iran against the Zionist regime in the coming hours is conceivable.

What’s happening in south Lebanon, a quick takeaway after 3 days of fluctuating tension:
1- Hezbollah’s attacks in the occupied Sheba’ farms were a declared indication to Israel that the “unification of fronts” strategy is now in action, yet within the old rules of engagement. 2- ie. if Israel escalates its offensive with a goal such as invading Gaza and annihilating Hamas and Islamic Jihad, then the rules are going to change. How? Next post.

On this story, what happened in Baghdad last week wasn't about narrow intra-Shia politics. A bloodshed between Shia in Iraq is an existential threat, therefore calculations of day to day politics doesn't fit here.

https://twitter.com/mashabani/status/1564928960256933891

When Sadr was besieged in Najaf in 2004, Sistani and Khamenei put aside their differences, and the latter asked Sistani to intervene and bring the episode to an end, we explain in this piece @mrkalantari for @ForeignPolicy based on Hamed Khafaf’s account

foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/30/was…

Iran’s posture with regard to developments in Afghanistan

1- Afghanistan is Iran’s strategic depth to the East, it’s an essential pillar in Iran’s extended national security, there are multilayered intertwined interests, security, economy, society, culture, environment, etc.. 2- More than 900 KMs of borders, a shared river (Hirmand/ Hari Rud) that was a reason for tension between Tehran and Kabul during Ashraf Ghani’s reign. The dispute goes back in history at least 150 years.

voanews.com/south-central-…

ملاحظات سريعة عن إيران ودورها في افغانستان.
اولا، افغانستان جزء اساسي من العمق الاستراتيجي الإيراني، امنيا، اجتماعيا، اقتصاديا ومائيا وهذا ما لا يخفى على أحد، ودور إيران في افغانستان قديم ويمكن مراجعة العلاقات زمان الشاه ومع سقوط الملكية في كابل ولاحقا انتصار الثورة في إيران ثانيا، حصر العلاقة بالمساحة الشيعية فيه الكثير من التبسيط، معلومة على الهامش هنا، علاقة الايرانيين بآية الله آصف محسني الذي كان يعتبر الزعيم الروحي لغالبية الشيعة الافغان (توفى العام الماضي) لم تكن في احسن احوالها ومفاوضات ما بعد سقوط طالبان عام 2001 عكست ذلك