Matthew Johnson | China political economy & geoeconomics | translating Beijing policy documents, economic data & regulations into actionable market signals ...
Jun 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Analysts are misreading Beijing’s latest move on rare earths as some kind of olive branch. Xi and Trump may have agreed to talks, and MOFCOM dangled the possibility of export licenses. But there’s a bigger game here. 🧵
2/ On June 6, MOFCOM stated it would approve rare earth export applications “that meet the regulations,” while noting these materials have “dual-use attributes.” The message was framed as technical, not punitive—but it came after days of pointed trade warnings.
Jun 3 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Despite headlines, China is not trying to use consumers to drive growth. Let’s put this myth to rest. The Q1 2025 data makes one thing brutally clear: what’s driving performance is a system built around industrial policy, not household demand. 🧵
2/ What’s actually powering China’s economy? A state-built tech-fiscal engine. Fixed asset investment grew just 4.0% YoY—but high-tech investment surged 21%. This isn’t cyclical recovery. It’s a command system redirecting capital into strategic sectors.
