1/ $GOOG may be best biz in history of capitalism - but clear that GPT answers are increasingly replacing 10 blue links - happens slow then fast. And while $GOOG will have a dog in the fight against ChapGPT, Co-pilot, Meta AI, Apple, etc - unlikely to replicate its monopoly. 2/ Full Clip. $GOOG has plenty of cost levers to pull - it needs bold action - most people know they need to GET FIT. Flatter is faster leaner is better. $GOOG would be a better company with 1/3 fewer people. And a healthy $GOOG is good for Silicon Valley in the Age of AI.

1/ Fact check time. In @theallinpod #137 @chamath sounded off on @DavidSacks, this chart, and software generally saying it is not helpful because these are all unprofitable software companies “sucking wind losing money.” https://t.co/yOMjIKCCfXyoutube.com/clip/Ugkxgy_4U…
2/ And while that was not really @DavidSacks point - it is an important one to address. Are software companies bad business models? So I asked the team to pull together a few charts. Of the 61 companies in the index only 6 have neg FCF margins.

1/If you owned growth stocks this year - like we did at Altimeter - you got your face ripped off. As a hedge fund we expect to lose less than the indexes on the way down - this year we have lost more. Our Big 4 - Snow, Meta, MSFT, and Uber are all down big. #keepingitreal 2/ Despite concerns about valuations - we didn’t hedge enough. We expected a gradual reversion to avg multiple as rates normalized, but we didn’t forsee a war in Ukraine or fears about hyperinflation /runaway rates. Markets moved fast- we moved too slow. cnbc.com/video/2021/10/…

1/ The markets have spoken. Covid is over. Govt stimulus (fed and congress) is over. 10 year back to 1.8 - Jan 2020 pre covid levels and growth multiples have fallen 50% back to Jan 2020 levels. 2/ Market adjustments of this magnitude are always sloppy. Fear of Fed policy mistake means could overshoot and retest Dec 18 growth multiple levels which are another 10-30% down. Not our base case - but on the table.