China Senior Analyst @CrisisGroup | Formerly @hdcentre | Tweets about China's foreign policy, U.S.-China, South China Sea, Taiwan, etc.
May 22, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Important reporting from FT @KathrinHille today about how Lai's inauguration speech contains indications that his cross-strait approach could deviate from his own party's/ Tsai's line over the past eight years. 🧵 1/
Notably, Lai in his speech did not reaffirm Tsai's position that cross-strait affairs would be conducted in accordance with the ROC constitution and the Act Governing Relations btwn People of the Taiwan and Mainland Areas. 2/
Nov 14, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A newly empowered Xi has chosen to use the political strength he has consolidated at home to begin to stabilize the U.S.-China relationship, showing more flexibility than previously. Plenty of differences remain, but this was a positive step. news.cn/world/2022-11/… 1/
Xi gains by appearing as a strong and responsible statesman before domestic and foreign audiences.
CH also hopes to forestall additional pressures from Washington that have complicated its economic plans, and its relations with its neighbours and the West. 2/
Aug 10, 2022 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Prelim thoughts: China’s new Taiwan White Paper
While basic principles to CH’s approach on TW are same, details suggest CH's “One Country Two Systems” may involve less political autonomy for TW than before, making an untenable political proposition even more untenable for TW 1/
Basic principles incl:
1. Peaceful reunification remains Beijing’s preference, use of force is still an option they reserve 2. One China Principle (OCP) 3. One Country Two Systems (OCTS)
Aug 5 Chinese countermeasures for Pelosi visit to TW
- More median line crossings
- Pelosi sanctioned
- US-China exchanges cut
- Shaping narrative for domestic and external audiences 1/
TW says total 68 PLA aircraft + 13 vessels around the TW Strait
Of those, 10 Chinese navy ships and 20 military aircraft crossed median line in morning, accd to Reuters
MND: mna.gpwb.gov.tw/news/detail/?U…
So far, no CH statement on median line activities 2/
Aug 4, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Aug 4 China’s countermeasures to Pelosi’s visit
-Missile tests, median line crossings, drones
-More DDos attacks on TW websites
-Taiwanese citizen arrested in China on pro-independence charges
-TAO calls out TW rep to US Hsiao Bi-khim 1/
11 DF-series ballistic missiles fired in the waters NE, SW, E of Taiwan between 13:56 –16:00
- E Theater Command (screenshot of vid below): mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fTXx69hrOaK9…
- TW confirmation from @tingtingliuTVBS
A quick look at China's immediate responses to Speaker Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan.
1. The language used in the statements is fairly typical--not particularly inflammatory--and continues to emphasize that time is "firmly in our hands" wrt Taiwan. This is Beijing's way of .. 1/
signaling confidence over the TW issue, and suggests they are not in a hurry to "reunify."
2. Mil responses appear much more escalatory, the announced Aug 4-7 exercises seem to extend into TW's territorial waters and maybe even internal waters credit to @duandang@Nrg8000 2/
Jan 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Chinese officials are signaling a possible policy shift on Taiwan which may be unveiled at the 20th Party Congress. 1/
The party appears to be using a new phrase to describe its Taiwan policy - the Party’s Overall Strategy for Solving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era (新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略). This expression appeared in the Sixth Plenum Resolution in November 2021. 2/
