Given how more people are now focusing on Trump's most radical 2025 promises, I want to draw attention to what poses the biggest risks and why this is different than normal political gamesmanship. Specifically:
1- Pardon abuse (couples with new immunity)
2- Weaponization of DoJ and other fed depts
3- Regulatory retaliation
4-Federal law enforcement overreach, like Alien Enemies Act
5- Domestic deployment of military, thru Insurrection Act
6- Election corruption, refusal to leave office A close study of his promises since he left office shows he and his allies have specific plans to do all of this. The looked at the obstacles they faced in the first term and devised strategies to get around them in 2025. That's why they are, for example, reaching far back into the 1700s for laws they can exploit to maximize power.

There is a real “believability gap” regarding the authoritarian threat we are facing. But you don’t have to believe what COULD happen. Look at what IS happening right now. Could you stick with me for a thread? 🧵 Over the weekend Trump, once again, threatened to jail folks for supposedly committing election crimes.

It’s all based on nothing—he promises to jail people for actions they have not committed, based on activities that took place in 2016 that were not crimes.

Here, Bill O'Reilly has fallen prey to the idea that Trump won't be able to enact the "biggest deportation raid in history" because...people will stop him. Let's chat. mediaite.com/tv/bill-oreill… Basically, O'Reilly argues that ACLU lawyers, Trump's civil service, and the courts will stop him. It's dangerous to assume these guardrails will hold. Let's talk about each one.

We discussed what I predicted would be a growing trend of GOP officials, including VP hopefuls, appearing courtside on @allinwithchris Thursday. Let me recap some thoughts.

https://twitter.com/shelbytalcott/status/1790007566568702262

First of all, Trump is under order a gag order. If he directs anyone to make statements that his prohibited from making that is a direct violation of the gag order and the judge must be monitoring these surrogate statements. (As if there wasn't enough going on.)

There is a real threat to democracy behind Trump's hush money trial drama. It's how Trump deliberately puts people who uphold the rule of law in danger. From me, a thread and a piece. ifyoucankeepit.org/p/the-real-thr… Trump could present a sober defense of his case, on the merits. Instead he chooses to attack the judiciary and the process. This is the autocratic impulse he displays anytime he faces any sort of legal accountability.

This is quite an analysis. Donald Trump won't be a full dictator on Day 1. Calm down! It would only take between four and 10 years to completely lose America. So...it's fine? Let me go on record with a HARD DISAGREE. politico.com/news/magazine/…
Also, ahem, here is the Authoritarian Playbook for 2025. In shows, in detail, the specific ways Trump has pledged to dismantle democracy and the plans and powers that will be used to enact them. Summary here where you can download full report authoritarianplaybook2025.org

Important! As Trump gets closer to officially becoming the GOP presidential nominee this week, he and his buddies at Heritage will also be rolling out the red carpet for Viktor Orban. Why? He's their authoritarian role model. Stick w me for a min on this. ifyoucankeepit.org/p/the-maga-mod… Like Trump, Orban was ousted by voters and then spent time out of office making plans to win the next election, get control of the levers of power, and abolish checks in the system so he would never lose again.

Which is what happened. Orban's now held power for 14 years.

Forget the empty both sides argument he’s making. What Trump is saying OPENLY is that if he is elected in ‘24 he will take direct authority over the Dept of Justice to target any of his perceived adversaries for incarceration.

https://twitter.com/accountablegop/status/1723003363787198675

If he goes to the White House, Trump and his backers will eliminate, ignore, and challenge any legal norms that exist now to prevent such obvious meddling by a president into fed investigations

The problem is not Kaitlan Collins.

The problem is a media establishment and a Republican Party that is dedicated to normalizing a radical and dangerous political figure.

Applause and ratings are not more important than our democracy. Donald Trump did not deserve this forum. He was not entitled to a major media network rolling out the red carpet for a prime-time event stacked with influential primary voters inclined to support him.

That is what went wrong here.

Besides, the primary is seven months away.

Gonna make my time here w/ the last gasp of my blue check mark count. A rant. I see that the new standard among my Republican friends is that we cannot indict anyone running for president, anyone who is president, or anyone who used to be president. Cool, cool.

Up and at em for a casual trail race this morning, saved this for my drive to the starting line. Put it on your playlist for your chores, drive, or weekend run! :) And let’s hope the wind and rain holds off for a bit, okay?

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1641891811261141004

Pausing the track: I absolutely love @AdamKinzinger ‘s take about the magical thinking behind the White Horse Barn. (“Oh, wait! We are supposed to be the white horses!”) 🎠

I know this--let's call it the Pity Vote Theory--is a commonly-expressed belief but what voters who voted for Biden in 2020 are now going to say "You know what? January 6 and the incitement changed my mind. I think I'll vote Trump now."

Show me this person.

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1641621648943071234

Will Trump have an excuse to send out fundraising appeals? Sure. Will he keep the media attention on him? Yes. Will the GOP be forced to, ONCE AGAIN, defend Trump's corruption? Uh-huh.

How is this good, in the end, politically for any of them?

Pence made a calculated decision to “go hard”—if you can call it that—at Trump to win over DC journos. Puke. DC journos are not the ones who need to be convinced Trump is a danger. Go say it on Fox. Or in Iowa. And try saying the actual words. politico.com/news/2023/03/1… For some reason he thinks speaking in coded Bible passages and to audiences who are known to be friendly to his message and will give him applause for the bare minimum is brave. Give me a break. Comply with your damn subpoena.

“History” doing a lot of work in this line that Mike Pence’s subpoena isn’t washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023… Perhaps Mike Pence would like to finally send a thank you for or finally, nicely, acknowledge the January 6 Committee he refused to meet with? Or is that not part of the history book he wants some Hillsdale professor to write

Have been thinking for awhile that DeSantis is a lot more Nixon than Trump. nytimes.com/2023/03/10/us/… thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/…

I see Chris Miller is making the rounds. Some background thebulwark.com/trumps-jan-6th… I need to watch the interview but I see something about challenge coins mentioned. Quick throwback

Very important insight here in the middle of the pod about why there was merited reluctance to send troops to the Capitol on January 6 thebulwark.com/podcast-episod… But, listen and subscribe because there is more salient stuff, right at the top! Want to know about when and how to shoot a spy balloon down? Here you go: Listen to @MarkHertling podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…