The way that many folks cover the final few days of an election is like covering a baseball game in just the 9th inning. You can’t appreciate the final score unless you appreciate the events of the entire game. 1/ Every midterm, the party in WH makes the case that THIS year will be different. That history isn’t destiny, etc. For Dems, they’ve had a number of opportunities to make that case. 2/

If you want to understand how difficult it will be for 1/6 commission to change hearts/minds, listen to how GOP Reps. Liz Cheney and Peter Meijer on Sun. shows. Both voted to impeach Trump. Re: GOP loyalty to Trump, even after attack, they have very different answers 1/ (thread) Here’s Cheney on @ThisWeekABC : I think that the policies that Pres. Biden has adopted are the wrong ones for this country. I think we need conservative, principled leadership, but the GOP Party has to make a choice… 2/

Here are 3 things to watch next year: 1) independents; 2) Biden job approve; 3) enthusiasm gap.
Right now, Biden/Ds standing w/ all look similar to big midterm loss years for WH. BUT..here’s how things could change. 1/

cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio… 1) Independent voters: unlike Trump, Biden has gotten good marks from indies before they dropped into negative. If COVID/economy improve, those numbers *could* go back up too. 2/

cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

The ouster of Liz Cheney from GOP leadership has everything: Trump, scions, hypocrisy....But, one thing it doesn’t have: an impact on the the midterms. 1/4

cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio… Dems may want to use her ouster to a remind suburban voters about Trump but it’s hard to frame a midterm election around the party out of power. Just ask Republicans about how effective all those anti-Pelosi ads were in 2018. 2/4

The House GOP wants to make 2022 a referendum on Dems/Biden, not Trump or Trumpism. Cheney’s refusal to put Trump and Jan. 6th in the rear view mirror made that difficult to do. They had 2 choices: 1/ 1) Allow Cheney to be a dissenting voice and not take the bait when media and Trump try to re-litigate him or attack on Capitol; 2) dump her to keep Trump happy & party unified for midterms. They obviously chose #2. But..2/

In the book “Blue Metros, Red States” (Brookings, 2021), the authors note that “At the start of the 1960s, Atlanta and Birmingham were similarly sized, fast-growing metros and similarly positioned to attract branch facilities of Northern businesses...” 1/ ATL Mayor Hartsfield, promoted the city as “a city too busy to hate,” while at same time MLK was writing “Letter from Birmingham jail.” Today, ATL is the ninth most populous city in the country, Birmingham is 49th. 2/

Whenever I hear about the return of earmarks and the hope that it will help ease our polarized politics, I think of Sen. Ben Nelson from NE and the “cornhusker Kickback.” Back in 2009, Dems needed his vote for Obamacare, so he used that leverage to get a deal for NE.. Nebraska would get a carve out on the Medicaid expansion deal so that NE’s share would be covered by the fed. government forever. This is the kind of deal that, like earmarks, would seem to be a win-win. D’s get the vote, Nebraskans get a deal on Medicaid. Done and Done. Except..

Since Jan. ‘19, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has asked GOP voters if they identify more as supporter of President Trump or as a supporter of the Republican Party. In almost every poll, more Republicans identified as supporters of Trump than of the Republican Party. 1/5 In the final NBC/WSJ poll before the election (10/29-31/20), 54% of Rs said they identified with Trump, just 38% identified as a supporter of the GOP. Now compare that to the breakdown in Congressional vote Wed/Thurs on objections to electoral college 2/5

In digging through the latest @pewresearch polling and comparing it to their 2016 voter survey there's no evidence that he's slipped significantly with his base, or gained support from anyone who didn't support him in 2016. Even so...1/

cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio… He’s trailing Biden by a wider margin than he did Clinton. Why? A big reason: voters who supported third-party/other candidates in 16. According to Pew, those voters are now breaking 55% to Biden and 39% to Trump. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

I know folks are bored and looking for a ‘new’ angle for 2020, but the Biden isn’t “doing enough/needs to be on TV more” angle is overwrought.
1) Biden needs the race to be referendum on Trump.
1a).. The reason Trump trails Biden in polls now is bc it’s all about Trump. Once it becomes a ‘choice’ it becomes more of a challenge for Biden. His weaknesses become more of a focal point. 2) Biden is Biden. ...

Lotta finger pointing as to how Ds got to this place where the moderate/establish wings of party have to rally around Biden. Some blame the order of primary (IA and NH lack diversity). Or the rules for getting into debate stage. Or DNC ineptitude. Here’s what I see Elections are all about meeting the moment. For Ds, what set the tone and template for 2020 wasn’t DNC or primary calendar. It was the single minded focus on ‘electability.’

So, @jonward11 & I (among many others) have been spending a lot of time post-2016, thinking about institutions and why they are failing at this moment in history 1/ The Iowa caucus is the latest example of an institution literally collapsing in front of our eyes. One big reason: the party has ceased being an organization dedicated to protecting/propelling the interests of the party. 2/

Brief history of Ds and health care debate in campaigns. Ds pass Obamacare in 2010. Rs make the new law issue #1 in midterms that year. Ds go into defensive crouch. Rs win 63 seats and control of the House. In 2012, Rs continue attacks on O’care as Obama re-elect does not run one ad defending/promoting/discussing the new law. Obama wins.

A thread on why making case for 'institutional check' on Trump is difficult for D's to make - even to Dems. First, to make a case for constitutional duty, the institution that's referenced in Article I of the constitution, that 'institution' needs to be respected (1)... ..currently, it is not respected. And, while D's want to lay the blame for the lack of faith in Congress/institutions, faith has been eroding for years, driven, in part, by members themselves (2)...

Re: socialism will kill Dems in 2020. Part of the reason many assume that liberals will take over/derail Dem party/priorities is bc they assume That whatever happened to Rs in last 8 years will simply be replicated by Ds. Here’s why that assumption is faulty. (1) Gallup poll found 54% of Ds want to see the party become more moderate, while just 41 percent prefer the party becomes more liberal. Meanwhile, 57% of Rs want to see the GOP to be more conservative, while just 37 percent want the party to moderate. (2)

Why aren't GOPers pushing back on Trump? Is it all a cult thing? A don't "poke the bear" thing? Yes, both play a part. But, the bigger reason is that Congress has absolutely no idea how to play its constitutional role (1) Most of these members - esp. on GOP side - have been elected since 2010. They ran as anti-establishment, anti-Washington. They see themselves as individuals - not members of "Team America." (2)