Well knock me over with a feather, but those good folk at @UKandEU have produced *yet another* report for your delectation 😳This is one on social and economic values in politics THREAD ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
We asked MPs and members a series of questions (see the picture I've rather cleverly inserted below) about their economic and social values, a set of questions drawn up by the British Election Study (thanks @BESResearch!)
Some parts in particular struck a chord with me, such as this
I do wonder, though, why Gov is selective in its insistence on evaluation. Where are the Brexit impact assessments? Why the pretty systematic tendency to ridicule forecasts carried out by people with precisely the kinds of quantitative skills whose absence he seems to bemoan?
Economically, the catching sector accounts for only around 0.1% of UK GVA – less than the processing sector in terms of both GVA and employment. The number of fishers has fallen since the 1960 though fishing profits are at their highest since records began.
The #UK and #EU may not reach a trade deal by end of transition. What would ‘no trade deal’ look like?
NEW @UKandEU report tells you everything you need to know.
Spoiler alert: #WTO terms will make trade between the UK and EU more difficult. THREAD ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
The UK is a member of the @wto.
Post #Brexit, it must establish an independent presence separate from the #EU.
The UK’s commitments—pledges about the level of access it gives—are currently bundled up with those of the EU. The UK now needs to disentangle its commitments.
Our @UKandEU report, on future of the EU, is OUT TODAY. We've not devoted as much time as we should to EU after Brexit. Here’s a THREAD for those of you too lazy to read it (or isolated and bored or, you know, short of paper....) … ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… 1/24
It's out! The new @UKandEU offering available FOR FREE here ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… This is a photo of the cover, which allows me to tag loads of people who'd rather I didn't.... 1/25
So. What have we got to say? @MeredithCrowle1 points out the future UK-EU relationship will entail a series of trade-offs: more alignment with EU regulations and standards = more trade but less control. 2/25
Next, @HusseinHKassim argues that despite both sides’ stated desire for close relationship, not sure what the negots can deliver. Not clear how far the UK has grasped implications of being a 3rd country nor how far EU is prep to give the UK a special third country deal. 3/25
It tells you everything you need to know about the party positions on the Brexit process, the future relationship and much more. We hope this report sets out in a clear and straightforward way what they’re all pledging to do. 2/25
We have a BRAND NEW report out today modelling the economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals. The full report is here: ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… But because I'm kind, here’s a quick thread summarising the findings 1/13
The main message of the report is that the long-term economic impact of the proposals are negative, and in fact worse than would be the case for the deal negotiated by Theresa May. The main differences between the two sets of proposals are set out in the table below. 2/13
We first look at the impact of the proposals in terms on trade on UK income per head. As the chart below shows, the impact is roughly equidistant between May’s deal and a WTO exit. Don’t pay too much attention to the £ figures - they’re just for context. 3/13
Here it is, a thing of beauty (and who knew photos were a way of tagging people who don't want to be tagged?) So what might a #NoDealBrexit mean? For those too busy (lazy) to read it, here’s a THREAD (in capitals) of the key points. DEEP BREATH #NoDealExplained 2/25
To the report itself. As we say in the introduction, although the legal consequences of no deal are relatively clear, the practical consequences are far less so. The defining feature of no deal is uncertainty (another photo, more unwilling victims tagged). 3/25
So, because all my predictions are wrong, here’s another. No 10 continues to ramp up the language on no deal. Effectively making negots impossible with EU. Parliament returns and signals opposition to no deal. 1/8
Johnson uses this as excuse to call an election ‘to let me deliver what you voted for in 2016’. Will be a horrible 'people versus parliament' campaign. The calculation is that he can win back enough Brexit Party voters. 2/ 8
Who the hell knows what happens in that election. But if he wins a majority, big question is whether he uses it to go for no deal or - more likely IMHO - for a NI only backstop, allowing him to do an FTA with EU 3/8
New @UKandEU rept out today on impact of Brexit vote three years on. We look at four areas: economy and pub finances, fairness, openness, and control. IT is, if I say so myself, rather good. And here's a photo, which serves to let me tag people with gazillions of followers 1/
Nice of @SKinnock to take the time to reply to my piece on the Norway option (though maybe the editors could occasionally ensure my name is spelt right?). As I doubt @prospect_uk would want to waste more space with my ramblings, some thoughts on his piece here
The 'move house, stay in the neighbourhood' line is a nice one, though based on the assumption that the key issue for leavers is the economic relationship. For those for whom sovereignty was the issue, EEA is more staying in the same house but with all the utilities cut off
When Stephen talks about a solution based on existing treaties, these are treaties with small states. The fundamental point is that there is no guarantee such a treaty would be acceptable for the EU when it comes to the UK. And of course it's not in Barnier's gift to offer it.
So, back to Brexit. And, with apologies for the delay, I'd just like to share some highlights from the @UKandEU report we brought out last week, which is available here: ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… (Bleeding massive thread) (1)
It's a biggie, and if what I"m about to say doesn't tempt you sufficiently, it also, in a departure for us, has a handy pull out wall chart, a bit like the World Cup ones but better, that will let you reminisce happily about the last 3 years or so. (2)
So @Usherwood kicks us off, with some salutary reminders about the predominance of our politics in the negots: the notification to trigger Art 50 was driven by a anxiety in the Conservative Party that May might never deliver rather than because a robust strategy was in place (3)
First and foremost, whatever happens today will have no legal consequences for Brexit, though obviously it is politically significant if the motion doesn't pass and/or the Soubry/Umunna amendment passes. (2)
Either way, attention will soon turn to the last week of February, when the real action will take place. At which point, the main, credible options facing parliament now are to approve the deal, hold indicative votes on the future relationship or extend Article 50. (3)
For the sake of lazy people, a quick summary of what’s in it. (2)
@hayward_katy and I (her name has been cunningly removed from it, for which apologies) points out how central the backstop is, but hints at fact that the politics is moving, not least as there appears to be a majority in parliament who would accept it (H/T @DrAlanWager ). (3)
The replies to this have - predictably - been along the lines of 'quell surprise'. But I am genuinely surprise. If, as some people argue, the hard line Brexiters supported Brady simply in order to run the clock down, then why have they come out in this way so soon? (1)
Surely it would have been more sensible to wait, let talks begin, and if they failed, then actually there was no need to give the impression of having supported Brady in what some might see as bad faith? (2)
And if it turns out that there were negotiations and signs of progress in them, then they could have started voicing their doubts about other aspects of the deal, partly to confuse the negotiations, and partly to lay the groundwork for voting against it when it comes back? (3)
This is a really interesting piece by @johnkampfner on which I have several thoughts that - joy of joy, you think - I'm going to share with you
First, yes it's true that some corporate types just do not like to get involved in political debate. But there are a number of reasons why many are specifically unwilling to get involved in the Brexit debate or to back a referendum.
First, several manufacturing firms I've talked to now see Mrs May's deal as the best outcome. NOT the best because a ref is unlikely, but the best. Why? Because they want certainty. They obviously hate the idea of no deal.
First things first. While there is clearly no majority in the Commons for no deal, the Tories are very relaxed about it. A majority of Tory MPs don't believe no deal will lead to long queues of lorries at Dover and other ports for instance (2/10)
And if you don't believe that the impact of no deal will be that serious, then you're going to be relatively relaxed about no deal. Not least because... (3/10)
Second, the only possible form of Brexit is one with no certainty about the future. That’s a function of how the EU works and so an argument against this is an argument against leaving 2
Finally, don’t underestimate how a deal will shift the narrative. Triumphant press conference in Bxls ‘Madame May has proven a superb negotiator’. Doubtless a coordinated wave of support from business, thanking PM for some certainty. Markets and £ will go up. 3