The questions I'd ask myself if I were within 5 years of retiring...

(thread) 1) What are my current expenses?
2) How could those expenses change in retirement (for the worse)?

Basic, but given how many people don't budget, it's a great first step.

Items like healthcare and long-term care are so tough to predict, so I'd err high.

August 30th is Warren Buffett's 91st birthday.

Each year, I celebrate the Babe Ruth of Investing's birthday by adding another reason we love our hero.

Here we go… 1. Intricate, occasionally contradictory complexity hides beneath the "Aw, shucks" folksy charm. As an @Forbes writer once put it, "Buffett is not a simple person, but he has simple tastes."

Here's how I have the four most-talked-about real estate market disruptors ranked...

1. $Z / $ZG (9.2 out of 10 using my Greenlight Framework)
2. $RDFN (8.4)
3. $EXPI (6.8)
4. $OPEN (6.0)

Full color-coded Greenlight Framework analysis for each one threaded below. I think of them in tiers...I'm most bullish on Zillow and Redfin and own large-for-me positions in each.

I like the upside potential of eXp World Holdings and Opendoor in a space I'm generally bullish on...but I have less conviction and only starter positions in them.

A granular reminder of why M&A deals are so tricky.

(Even when they're GOOD moves).

1/8 I visited a local branch of BB&T/Suntrust last week.

I'm not saying Truist ( $TFC) yet even though they announced the merger Feb 7, 2019 and "completed" it Dec 6, 2019.

Here's why...

2/8

The top 5 numbers I'd consider before buying a house...

This is a rank-ordered sanity check I put together for friends before they bought their house.

1/23 #1: Housing as a % of your income

This is by far the most important thing to check.

The lending industry rule of thumb is 30%.

So $50k a year ($4,167/mo.) in income would mean no more than $1,250 a month in recurring housing costs.

2/23

18 years after buying the house my family lives in, we're upgrading to the house next door.

Went from innocent bystanders to signing a contract in less than a week.

Fresh in my mind, here are 3 thoughts, including why we may have made a mistake.

1/11 The background

I originally bought our current house as a bachelor in 2003.

It was a large group house I rented out...now it's where my wife, 2 kids, and 1 renter live.

It's a functional house that we've made nicer over the years...but "nice bones" is what people say.

2/11

My 11 most useful Tweets:
• Greenlight Framework
- The scale
- Examples
• Top 100 lessons
• 2021 stock picks
• How to:
- Build a portfolio
- Grow patience
- Deal with📉
- Think about cash
• Multi-bagger math
• Why I hate margin
• The real goal!

1/12 Greenlight Framework Scale...

https://twitter.com/anandchokkavelu/status/1400753857546919939?s=20

2/12

Buffett's 9 lessons that apply to BOTH growth AND value investors.

1/17 1) Understand the Power of Systems

It's why he's always bullish on America.

Why $BRKB loves the free money that is insurance float.

Why he holds his annual meeting...he was rallying his Buffett Army long before WSB was a thing or $AMC gave popcorn to shareholders.

2/17

In honor of @elonmusk's 50th birthday...

50+ of his best lines across these categories...

• Elon on Elon
• Innovation
• Graduation Speech-Type Stuff
• Probability & Risk
• Business Philosophy
• Investing
• AI, Simulations, & the Future

Ending Bonus: My 8 favorites

1/ ELON ON ELON

"I say something, and then it usually happens. Maybe not on schedule, but it usually happens."

:) Bulls are knowingly applauding, bears are rolling their eyes.

2/

Reasons to have 75% of your portfolio in one stock.

(As an advocate for diversification, here's the other side).

1/12 Every day on Twitter, I see portfolios that would terrify me if they were mine.

Folks with just a handful of stocks, mostly in the same sector or sub-sector (e.g. SaaS).

It's beside the point whether they're ultimately right on their picks or not...it's the risk.

2/12

How @TMFMathGuy and I ranked 10 meme stocks (have to hold 5 years):

10 (tie) $NKLA
10 (tie) $AMC
9 $GME
7 (tie) $BB
7 (tie) Cash
3 (tie) $SPCE
3 (tie) $CLNE
3 (tie) $CRSR
3 (tie) $WISH
1 (tie) $CLOV
1 (tie) $BBBY

1/4 Notes:
- We included just holding cash and losing to inflation...as a Mendoza Line.
- Couldn't believe $BBBY was tied for #1...an interesting value play.
- Not the strongest field of stocks we've ranked...but all in all a bit better than I'd have expected from meme stocks.

2/4

What exactly is a meme stock?

Including:
- A checklist for identifying them.
- An example of one that isn't overvalued.
- How to play them.

1/10 The meme stock definition is fluid...it's clear it means different things to different people.

Its name comes from the fact that memes are used a ton on forums like Reddit's wallstreetbets, StockTwits, and Twitter.

2/10

Here are the 100 things I’ve learned in investing.

I've been updating this since 2012 to share, to reduce my own unforced errors, and to reinforce the good habits, like #47.

/thread 1. Most of this list is dedicated to insight on stock picking, but know this: It's darn hard to beat the market. 99% of people are best served steadily buying and holding low-cost index funds at the core of their portfolios -- and I may be understating that 99% figure.

Peter Lynch's 8 principles for beating the market

(Why listen? He averaged 29% yearly returns running a mutual fund!!!)

1/12 1. Know what you own

This one frequently gets a "yeah, yeah" from me, but it's embarrassing how many "They do THAT?" moments I have.

Here's a test for every company you own...can you explain in detail how they make money AND how that's different than their competitors?

2/12

How people ACTUALLY get better at picking stocks.

1/12 First, a story.

When I was a kid, I've enjoyed shooting baskets.

In addition to the layups and jump shots, I liked to shoot 100 free shows and see what percent I could make.

Still do the exact same thing as an adult.

Until recently, I got the exact same result...

2/12

6 practical ways we can grow our patience as investors.

1/7 1) Positive Peer Pressure

Our parents were right...hang out with the wrong crowd and we get in trouble.

If the folks you talk/text/Tweet most with about stocks are nervous short-termers, you'll drift there.

Crowd those voices out by adding more long-term thinkers.

2/7

Why I'm so against using margin.

1/8 Margin's a fancy way of saying your brokerage is lending you money to buy more stocks.

It's debt.

So if your brokerage allows you to borrow 50% on margin, $1,000 becomes $1,500.

In exchange, you pay interest on your loan.

2/8

Why I own more than 100 stocks.

(5 reasons)

1/9 Q: Is 100+ stocks, ETFs, and cryptos the right answer for everyone?

A: Heck no! Know thyself.

Here's the rationale for why I do.

2/9

How to think about cash as a stock investor.

1/10 Here, I'm NOT talking about:
1) Your cash safety net (you should have one!)
2) Using cash/ST bonds vs. low-yielding LT bonds for asset allocation purposes

I'm talking about excess cash you're purposely holding instead of investing it in the stock market

2/10

My system for saving.

(Savings rate > 20% per year)

1/6 First, the personality quirks my system has to manage:
1) Fortunately, I get nervous if I'm spending more than I'm making. No problems saving vs. spending "bonus" money.
2) I hate the constraints of a constant daily budget.
3) I get excited for sprints, tired of marathons.

2/6

Thought experiment: What would you do if you had to double your current annual savings?

(My answer threaded)

1/10 We're (family of four) already pretty strong savers, so doubling would mean considering pretty big things.

1) Moving to a lower-cost city/area...we live in the DC area, so most cities are cheaper (I could move to a few different cities and still keep my current job).

2/10