I promised to share some images from the State Dinner in Washington in honour of @PMOIndia at the White House. It was a pleasant surprise to see how the dominant theme of the evening—apart from the cuisine—was music. From the very start to the finish… (1/5) More welcoming music during the journey inside…(2/5)

A glimmer of light in the gloom. It comes from Mumbai.Through the pandemic I’ve been relying on the outstanding insights of the ATE Chandra Foundation.Their model shows an encouraging trend. Mumbai’s daily cases have plateaued at a lower level over the last week or so (1/4) Sero prevalence in Mumbai (existence of Covid antibodies) is high at 40%+ & rising fast due to both new infections & vaccinations. Global evidence suggests at around 60-65% we may reach a tipping point from where daily cases sharply decline. Just as it happened in the UK. (2/4)

Every Sunday, a solitary bamboo flute seller walks by my home trying to attract buyers by playing film music on one of his flutes. Usually, I find that music cheerful. These days, it tears my heart out because I wonder whether anyone would want to buy one & risk infection (1/4) So every Sunday I buy one of those flutes & discard it immediately. Just a way of soothing my own conscience.But it’s clear that Covid has made his economic model collapse with no sight of early recovery. There must be millions more like him in every community in this land (2/4)

The situation would have been even worse without a bountiful monsoon, which has galvanised the rural economy. India is truly fortunate that a majority of its people live in rural areas. But clearly, Covid has done enormous damage to the urban & manufacturing sectors. (1/5)

https://twitter.com/economictimes/status/1300750253407174657

The ‘unlocking’ will be like a tide going out which will, I fear, starkly highlight the deprivation of daily wage earners, independent service providers & small enterprises. Bank loan portfolios will be in a precarious state & their finances will need shoring up.(2/5)

The number of new cases has risen, despite flattening the previous few days. With higher testing, a continuing rise is inevitable given the low absolute number of cases relative to our population & the rest of the world. We shouldn’t expect a swift flattening of the curve.(1/5) This doesn’t mean the lockdown hasn’t helped. India’s avoided lakhs of potential deaths in its collective fight. India’s death rate per million is currently 1.4 compared to the global average at 35 & the US at 228. We’ve also bought time to enhance medical infrastucture (2/5)

How do we ensure ‘food security’ for urban areas during a pandemic? Strategic stocks of grains aren’t enough. No variety of nutrition. And disrupted supply chains prevent produce from reaching cities. Cities need a ‘ring’ of organic-hence self contained-farms around them. (1/5) The @naandi_india foundation led by @manoj_naandi have built a proof-of-concept. The self contained (all inputs, labour, seeds, machines & tools) fully organic #UrbanFarmsCo has been supplying 25 varieties of fresh vegetable
even in these trying times. (2/5

Going by various reports from epidemiologists, it is highly likely that India is already in Stage 3 of transmission.
—Cases could rise exponentially with millions of casualties, putting a huge strain on medical infrastructure (1/5) —A lockdown over the next few weeks will help flatten the curve & moderate the peak pressure on medical care. —However, we need to create scores of temporary hospitals & we have a scarcity of ventilators. (2/5)

The virus will eventually be conquered, but it will have left behind a global recession. The costs of that are incalculably high at this time. The most fearsome toll will be on small businesses, the self-employed & those whose lives depend on meagre daily wages. (1/4) Apart from the toll on lives, the legacy of COVID-19 may well be deaths due to stress, loss of livelhoods, a rise in homelessness & in extreme situations, civil unrest. The only global experience that has lessons for us in the current situation is the last world war. (2/4)