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Andrew Leach Profile picture
Andrew Leach
@andrew_leach
Professor of Economics and Law @UAlberta. Blocks anonymous reply guys. Buy my book: Between Doom and Denial (Sutherland House).
Apr 6 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Shortly after the UCP took office in 2019, @theAESO put out their semi-annual long-term outlook. This would have given the UCP gov't a look forward at what those who, to use their own words, were "uniquely positioned" to forecast what was to come in Alberta were expecting. 1/ It would also have given a distinct impression of what the impacts of the NDP policies were to that point, as well as forecast load growth and other measures. So, let's have a look at what the AESO was expecting at that point. 2/
Mar 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is absolutely right. And, re: carbon pricing, most of the debate isn't really about how we act, it's whether we act. As long as there has been climate policy, there have been those arguing "in favour" of a policy not on the table in lieu of arguing against action. 1/ Don't like a "sector by sector regulatory approach" w more stringent targets on oil and gas than any other? Talk about how experts favour economy-wide carbon pricing. Don't like carbon pricing? Maybe regulation would be better. Experts say we could get more stringent policies. 2/
Mar 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Want to understand the challenge of the Cdn LNG business case? Asian gas is now sub $9. Take from that roughly $1 in shipping costs, $2.50 in CGL pipeline tolls, and $1 or so in operating costs, and that leaves you $4.50 to pay for the capital costs of the terminal and the gas. Capital costs of the terminal, depending on your assumptions, is $4-5 for LNG Canada, and less than that for some others. Suppose capital costs are *half* the estimates for LNG Canada, you're left with about $2.50 for gas. So, basically the same price as right now.
Mar 26 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Since 2015, @PBO_DPB has started doing more work on distributional effects of policies. That's great news. But, about 70% of their distributional analysis has focused on one policy: carbon pricing. Child care? Dental care? Pharmacare? Child tax benefits? I must have missed them. On carbon pricing, the PBO analysis is very clear: roughly 80% of Canadians get back more than they pay in carbon tax, and the net benefits to the lowest-income Canadians are big, especially in AB and SK: up to a 3% boost in household income.
Feb 7 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Since a food professor is commenting today on the impact of carbon prices on farmers, it's worth re-hashing this thread. Almost all (~ 95%) of on-farm emissions are exempt from carbon pricing, not to mention exemptions from fuel excise taxes and other favourable tax policies. And, if you're wondering "yeah, but what about those emissions beyond the farm gate," they are small for most foods. For a great interactive look at this, see @_HannahRitchie's interactive graph here: 2/ ourworldindata.org/grapher/food-e…
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Jan 26 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So, after @PierrePoilievre comments yesterday and the consistent focus on the impact of carbon pricing on farming, I thought I'd take a little look into the data. There are 3 major sources of emissions from agriculture: enteric fermentation (cow farts), fertilizer, and fuels.1/ Neither GHGs from enteric fermentation (animal production) nor fertilizer (crop production) are covered by carbon pricing, other than via opt-in offsets which compensate farmers for GHG reductions. The lion's share of GHGs from farming are in those exempt categories. 2/ Image
Jan 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A quick note to all who might be concerned: the Noey government early coal phase out deal covered 6 coal units (sheerness 1 and 2, genesse 1,2,3 and keephills 3). The deal was to compensate those units and only those units for shutting down in 2030 instead of later. 1/2 Image If you check the AESO dashboard, all 6 of the affected units are in service right now. 3 fully converted to gas, 2 as coal but to be converted and expanded this spring, and one as dual fuel. Other coal units (battle river 3, Sundance, milner) were affected by Harper coal regs. 2/

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Jan 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Guys, I've been handed a sneak peek at the federal Conservatives' clean electricity strategy. I'm told the working title is Powering Canada into the Future... Image I'm not kidding people. Here's how it would work:

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Oct 17, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Re: the implications of the SCC Impact Assessment Act on future electricity (and oil and gas) regulations, I think this piece from Marla Orenstein @CanadaWestFdn misses some really important points and misinterprets some of what the majority opinion held. theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl… It's true that the Court wrote that "“[a]ny legislation that related to non-carbon pricing forms of [greenhouse gas] regulation … would not fall under the matter of national concern,” referring to the GGPPA findings, but that's not likely to be at issue for CEPA regs. 2/
Sep 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
What should have been in @theAESO presser:
1) Here's what the federal reg requires right now
2) Here's what that means in terms of the AB market with current rules in place.
3) Assuming limited changes to the CER, here's what we would recommend to government re: market design. 4) If these design changes aren't implemented, here are the changes we would have to make between now and 2035 to ensure we meet our mandate to ensure reliability.
5) The implications for prices for consumers depend almost entirely on investment decisions. We can't know that.
Aug 14, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
There's something fishy about #ableg moratorium timing. Work with me: in today's presser the Premier said that pause was initiated at the request of the AUC and the AESO. But, as @EmmaLGraney and @CGriwkowsky pointed out, that's not what letters say nor do the dates line up. 1/ @EmmaLGraney @CGriwkowsky The order was issued on August 3rd, 2023 and at that point the Government states that this was in direct response to a letter from the AUC, which the Government provides in its press release as "AUC letter requesting government initiate a pause" in the links. 2/
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Jul 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A thought: in 2008, confidence in CCUS was high enough that the Harper gov't was going to require it for all new oil sands projects, Alberta had a climate strategy which projected roughly 25Mt/yr from CCUS by today, and 135 Mt/yr by 2050. How has that worked out? Compare that to, for example, solar. In 2008-9, industrial solar costs were about $400/MWh, Alberta didn't foresee any development at all (it's not even mentioned in the 20 year AESO plan from 2005).
May 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Corbella: "Thankfully, the UCP brought in surplus budgets and whittled away at Notley’s reckless debt."

Reality: total taxpayer supported debt in 2019 was $62.7B. Total in 2023 was $79.4B.

Does whittled not mean what I think it means? Or is Corbella lying again? #ableg Corbella: "Every economic indicator went down except the debt."

Reality: Employment? Up. GDP? Up. Population? Up. Labour productivity? Up.

It's almost as if Corbella just makes stuff up and Postmedia will print it.
May 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A little data point for you, #ableg.

Wondering how much of a diff 8% vs 11% provincial tax rates can make? For a new, in situ oil sands project, it changes the break-even (10% rate of return) WTI oil price from $44.99/bbl to $45.35/bbl. Think that's changing investment? 1/ Doing the same calcs for an existing project (using Surmont), the oil price at which the forward-looking NPV drops to zero is $37.91/bbl with an 8% tax and that changes to $37.98 at an 11% tax, holding other assumptions at Sproule April 2023 forecast levels. 2/
May 4, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
There has been a lot of discussion about the Navius (aeso.ca/future-of-elec…) and AESO (https://t.co/BI4DCVnY5o) reports on Net Zero electricity and whether you can add 'costs' in both together to get a total 'cost' of a net zero AB grid. My answer is no, you can't. Thread: 1/ Simply, as @markusoff put it, adding foregone future GDP and new investment estimates together to get a total 'cost' is like adding apples and ambulances. They each measure different things, and neither is akin to a cost to the public purse nor to electricity ratepayers.
May 4, 2023 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Fun fact: 5 years ago, the AESO's Long Term Outlook asked how much solar we might see on Alberta's grid. They looked at a variety of scenarios for policies, technologies, etc. and built a forecast out to 2039. In only one scenario, their Diversification run, did they forecast more solar capacity installed in 2039 than the amount that is currently on the grid in Alberta right now (1192 MW). Their base case had 481 MW by 2039.
May 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is a huge missed opportunity to expand the common law.

The tort of self-ownership, whereby repeating someone's own very specifc words can be defamatory, has not really been fully explored by Canadian courts. I would suggest four factors that should constitute a test for a duty of care in light of self-ownership. (1) the of embarrassment that might befall the potential owner; (2) the implausible precision of the language used in owning oneself; (...)
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I can't decide which is my favourite Tombegraph from yesterday's budget. This one is in the mix: But, I think this one is my favourite, simply because the Venn diagram of people who thought the province was "on the right track" in 2018Q3 and those who think this budget has Alberta "on the right track" today will be a O. #ableg

Feb 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Extending this to orphan wells would be an even more transparent gift to existing industry, and proportionately to the biggest players in the industry. It's good news that it's delayed, bad news they are contemplating making it an even worse program than it already was. Why? Orphan well remediation is currently funded by a levy charged pro-rata to current producers. The government taking what would otherwise be royalty dollars to pay for any of it is a $1:$1 transfer to the producing companies. It would be a big gift to CNRL.
Oct 27, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
There is so much wrong with the constitutional interpretation in this piece, it detracts from public knowledge. I'm going to my computer so I can tweet with receipts. Alright, I'm back. Let's go.

"If Premier Peter Lougheed hadn’t waged his bitter fight over the National Energy Program in 1980, Alberta’s right to resource ownership and revenues would have been effectively overturned."

How? The NEP had nothing to do with resource ownership.
Oct 25, 2022 • 21 tweets • 11 min read
Guess what we're talking about in class tomorrow? Alberta oil and gas liability management. R* just might come up... #AbLeg A majority of oil field liabilities are held by licensees that are in a strong financial position. E.g. 92% of oil field liabilities are held by licensees with more oil field assets than liabilities. 55% of liabilities are held by those with at least a asset:liability ratio of 3.