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Andrew Little Profile picture
Andrew Little
@anthlittle
Associate Prof at UC Berkeley. I use formal theory to study political behavior. Tweets self-destruct according to a mixed strategy.
Mar 12, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
A few thoughts on the latest round of the democratic backsliding debate. First, there has been tons of interesting discussion, most of it civil and constructive, particularly by twitter standards. I'll try to do the same. Part of this debate has been framed as "V-Dem et al say the world is getting less democratic, Little and Meng (and others) say it's all coder bias." But that's not what we have said here let alone in the paper. We only argue this *might* be going on.
Jul 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
New paper with @matt_brundage_ and @SooSunYou1: "Selection Neglect and Political Beliefs." It's a review paper which identifies a common theme with many applications: people form beliefs as if what they experience is representative of wider populations.

osf.io/p49at Image An example which comes up often on here is the claim that "twitter is not real life." The opinions expressed on this platform are biased in many ways, and so "twitter opinion" on, say, US politics, can give a highly misleading view of what the US population more generally thinks.
May 26, 2022 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Since models of persuasion are a topic for NYT op-eds, it's time to share a draft: "Bayesian Explanations for Persuasion."

Tenure means writing weird papers with no obvious prospect for publication because you think it might be interesting/useful, right?

osf.io/ygw8e Image The title is partly a nod to Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011), and one way to view what I'm trying to do is argue against the conflation of "persuasion" in formal theory with the particular style of model used in that paper.
Jan 28, 2022 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Excited to share a new paper, or really a new enough version of a previous paper ("Directional motives and different priors are observationally equivalent") that the old title was no longer accurate.

Link:
osf.io/b8tvk/ It is common to see someone react to new information in a way that seems irrational. When their preferred candidate loses an election, it must be fraud. To a flat earther, the universal rejection of this theory from the scientific community is proof they are all bought off.