𝘖𝘷CWD (𝑶𝒅𝒐𝒄𝒐𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒖𝒔 𝒗𝒊𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒖𝒔 Chronic Wasting Disease) agent-based modeling framework is now available for 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐚! 𝘖𝘷CWD models are portable and customizable, Missouri & Michigan versions were published in 2020. (1/7) @coatiwhisperer, Josh Millspaugh, & @anyadoc developed the 𝘖𝘷CWD framework with the overarching objective of providing a collaborative, decision-making tool to inform the design of rational, locally relevant CWD surveillance & control strategies: ow.ly/cst050HHuJS (2/7)

𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐦 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: 𝐚 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝
1. Eighteen elephants found dead yesterday in Assam. Social media is rife with comments like "How lightning could kill so many in one go?" or "Can't believe lightning could kill so many elephants...". 2. Of course, systematic investigations might uncover the true cause of death. But mass mortality of free-ranging animals due to lightning is not unusual or unheard of. Here's one case from Missouri: ow.ly/lvl250ENs3V

1) Media reports of domestic elephants and cattle dying of ‘rabies’ in Kaziranga. Based on info I was able to gather, the rabies diagnosis is based only on clinical symptoms exhibited by affected animals. @abi_vanak @greenchough @sumitdookia @VetSree @DiegoMontecinoL 2) Lab confirmation of rabies should be the first priority. If already done, then the following info would be crucial: Number of animals sampled, tissues used for testing, tests used for rabies diagnosis. WGS should be the next step (different strain of rabies virus?)

Unrealistic assumptions (baseline scenario: random disease distribution, random sampling) overestimate the detection probability (~ confidence in detecting #CWD). Agent-based framework for wildlife disease surveillance Belsare et. al ow.ly/6U7M30mQFTc #bioRxiv #gganimate The model was simulated for Franklin County Missouri deer population. Alternate scenario simulates clustering of cases and non-random sampling. Very low prevalence thresholds reflect recent CWD introduction. User-friendly-sliders to set age-sex class specific harvest and testing.