Sharing some views and opinions, bordering on unpopular, questioning the wisdom of the crowds, and possibly inviting the wrath of value investors. Posting this in a lighter vein so please dont get (too) upset pls.

1/n 1. Bottom up invesitng is the way to invest - NO.
Macro is under-rated , bottom up investing is over-rated. If its in the numbers, in most cases, most of alpha is gone. To much focus on numbers also implies your inability to peek into the future and how numbers might change.

2/n

Parag milk products - an amazing brand with mass / mass affluent / premium products, available at Rs. 3k cr EV. Gowardhan, Go, Pride of Cows, Avvtar.

Stock is up 100% in last few weeks (disc: invested from 80 levels). Corp governance issues are discussed and cited. Most are likely true, to some degree. However, some bit of CONTRARIAN thinking needs to be applied as can result in massive alpha from this stock.

Eventually, I think this company will be acquired.

Want to know more about Li-Ion batteries? Read on the 🧵.

Li-Ion battery is 40-50% pf the cost of an EV. Over the last few years, cost of battery has gone down significantly - in line with Wright's law.

1/n Over the next few years, it is quite possible that price decrease in battery may slow down (or price may even increase) and offset the decrease as projected by Wright's law

Reason for that is the complex supply chain for Lithium and other elements that go into a battery.

2/n

Rare earth elements (REE) - lets talk about an industry that deeply affects every industry and country, from Commerce to National Security to Technology advancements to Environemnt, that is overtly controlled by China today. What are rare earth elements?
Rare earths are a group of chemical elements with unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties.

They are further sub-divided into Light REE (Lanthanium to Samarium) and Heavy REE (Europium to Lutetium)

Hindustan Foods - the company that is cracking the code on FMCG contract manyfacturing - a Rs 1 lakh crore market opportunity.

One of the fastest gowing companies in India with a huge runway for next 5-10 years.

Disc - vested and buying on dips. Vision - To become India’s largest FMCG contract manufacturer, diversified across product categories and geographies

Mission - To provide world-class solutions for FMCG industry in areas of product innovation, manufacturing, and distribution

Fairchem speciality - decent results.

Sales at 403 cr. Down 10% year over year but up 3% sequentially.

18.3% operating margins vs 20.0% year over year.

Overall EPS is 45 for FY20 vs 24 for FY19. Results in oleo and nutraceuticals segment looks really promising. Revenues up 50% year over year and 10% sequentially.

In a recent report, McKinsey had highlighted this segment as a huge opportunity for India, to take away market share from China.

Precision camshafts - writing a short note on Precision, a company / stock that intrigues me for the ridiculously low valuations. CMP is Rs 27.5. Will cover business profile, management, projections, current valuations & why they don't sense.

Would love to get counter views. Precision is renowned for making foundary and machined camshafts for automobiles. It has 70% market share in India and 10% globally. The company produced 10 million units in 2019.

Madam minster - this is wrong on so many levels.

ndtv.com/business/budge… There are certainly more than 5000 people in the super rich category. They just don't pay taxes today.

I understand the focus on tax compliance but the change is too slow simply because the system aids them today to evade taxes.

Alicon castalloy - decent results. For full year, sales up 17%, earnings up 37%, mcap 800 cr, pe 15. RoE 17% and RoCE 19%. Company offers end to end solutions across spectrum of aluminium casting needs for various industries. Operates one of the largest aluminium foundries in India.

Fairchem speciality - some interesting and valuable insights from the Fairfax India march 9th letter to shareholders. The company is 1 of the 2 listed investments (amongst total 8) made by Fairfax group in India.
#FairchemSpeciality Fairchem (earlier called ADI finechem) has developed an in-house tech that converts the waste generated during production of soya, sunflower, corn, and cotton oils, into valuable chemicals. Customer include BASF, Archer Daniels, Cargill, arkema, Asian paints.

Sterlite technologies - a play on the data and digitisation theme. Expensive valuations but worth studying and accumulating below 290. Only company in the world to have silicon to software capability, critical for tomorrow's data networks.
#SterliteTechnologies In FY18, Sales grew 30% and earnings grew 66%. Margins are expanding nicely as well. 54% of total revenues came from international markets. 8 of the top 10 global telecom operators use sterlite's product TS and solutions.