Astraia Intel Profile picture
Open-source intelligence analyst and military theorist covering developments from Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific.
zypic Profile picture Kent 🇩🇰🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸🇺🇦 Profile picture 3 subscribed
May 1 10 tweets 2 min read
This remains my position. 1/ I was going to make a big thread, but I discarded it because it seemed counterproductive.

In short,

> What the west can realistically provide today will not make a difference offensively.

> Ukraine must depend on it's own domestic war industry.
Apr 29 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ Now let me get something straight with you here, and I'll take it slowly so that your shallow, imperialist Russian minds can comprehend it.

The average speed of a snail is 0.048 kilometers per hour.
Image 2/ When multiplied by 24, which, in case you don't know, is the number of hours in a single day, this should give us the distance in kilometers that a snail covers in a day.

That amounts to 1.2 kilometers per day. Image
Apr 26 43 tweets 7 min read
1/ Long thread, covering a lot of stuff about the Russo-Ukrainian war.

For some, warfare consist of acts of personal valor; for others, it consists of small arms clashes over hills, armored thrusts, the maneuvering of units on a map, politics, territorial struggles, destruction,


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2/ aviation sorties, logistics—the list continues for as many roles as there are in a society. In truth, warfare encompasses all these elements. Personally, I view warfare as a struggle to break the enemy's ability to continue the fight.
Apr 24 7 tweets 1 min read
⚡️ Full Frontline Report ✚ 24.04.2024

1/ Following a successful Ukrainian counterattack, the Russian offensive east of Chasiv Yar stalled. On the Donetsk front, Russian forces continue to make minor progress. In the area of Avdiivka, the situation is increasingly dangerous. 2/ On the Zaporizhzhia front, the intensity of clashes remained low. The majority of activity was limited to artillery exchanges, with Russian ground forces only attempting to cross the gray zone on 3 separate occasions. No territorial concessions were made to the enemy.
Apr 7 10 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russian forces deployed a tank specially modified to provide electronic warfare cover for their mechanized group. In what will be remembered as one of the most dangerous missions of the war, Ukrainian soldiers stepped in and managed to recover it.

Here is the full story. 🧵
Image 2/ Having neutralized 4 drones during the initial assault, a weak spot was identified and the vehicle ended up receiving substantial damage from a Ukrainian FPV drone. Simultaneously wire became tangled in its tracks, causing it to collide with the Russian BMP in it's vicinity.
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Apr 7 9 tweets 3 min read
⚡️ Full Frontline Report ✚ 07.04.2024 ⚡️

1/ A very interesting day.

On the Zaporizhzhia front, the intensity of clashes remained low. Russian forces launched a single attack in the area northwest of Verbove, contesting a position that was liberated in the summer offensive. Image 2/ In the Avdiivka area, the enemy was allowed to advance. Berdychi has almost entirely passed under Russian control, with Ukrainian elements in many areas withdrawing behind the Durna river. This has been a maneuver that was planned by the general staff for a long time. Image
Apr 2 6 tweets 3 min read
⚡️Full Frontline Report ✚ 02.04.2024⚡️

1/ On the Zaporizhzhia Front, positional battles continue. Enemy forces attempted to capture Ukrainian positions northwest of Verbove, but failed to achieve any progress. The situation remains unchanged. Image 2/ On the Kherson-Crimea front, Russian forces went on the offensive on 4 separate occasions, but failed to achieve any of their objectives. The line of contact remains unchanged. Image
Mar 25 6 tweets 3 min read
⚡️Full Frontline Report ✚ 25.03.2024⚡️

1/ On the Zaporizhzhia front, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue their offensive operations northwest of Verbove. However, faced with fierce Ukrainian resistance, they have been unable to advance. Image 2/ On the Donetsk front, Russian infantrymen have managed to occupy sections of the gray zone in and north of Novomykhailivka. Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in the areas of Pobjeda, Pervomaiske and Nevelske in an effort to fix Russian forces in place. Image
Mar 18 14 tweets 8 min read
1/ The @DefMon3 Principle: A thread on the history of COPEsint, Delusion, Gatekeeping, and Pseudo-Realism.

Abandoning Ukraine in her darkest hour, the snake, now that he realized that the frontline isn't collapsing, emerges from his pit to resume his campaign of nonsense. Image 2/ Let's begin by asking the question, what is open-source intelligence? What is the proper definition of the term OSINT? Is it solely the act of geolocating? No. By definition, OSINT refers to collecting and analyzing data from open sources to produce actionable intelligence.
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Mar 12 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Okay, but what if it's not a raid. Let me elaborate on the strategic brilliance behind choosing this location. The path back to the settlement is so narrow and predictable that any offensive force would be annihilated by Ukrainian* artillery that is set up around* the salient.
Image 2/ I literally can not exaggerate the massive boost in efficiency of artillery support under these conditions. On a head-on charge, success is impossible for the Russians. Holding this territory doesn't require a large number of troops either.
Mar 12 9 tweets 4 min read
⚡️Full Frontline Report ✚ 12.03.2024⚡️

1/ On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces attempted to overcome Ukrainian defenses along the Robotyne - Verbove LoC on seven separate occasions. All clashes remained confined within the boundaries of the initial gray zone. Image 2/ On the northern front, Russian opposition forces, encountering minimal resistance, penetrated the international border on three separate axes. Territorial gains have been recorded in the directions of Shebekino, Grayvoron, and Kazinka. Image
Mar 11 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ After years of Russian PsyOps, coupled with the excellent handling the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, the mental infrastructure of people was perfectly conditioned to believe that a 5km deep advance is the end of the world. Well I'm here to tell you that this is not true. Image 2/ It's science. Susceptibility to propaganda is a fundamental property of intelligence. No one is exempt from its influence. Whether or not you consciously realize it, the effect at the neuron level is always present on exposure. Image
Mar 3 12 tweets 4 min read
🇺🇦🩶🇺🇦

1/ Drama between Pro-Ukrainian accounts must be stopped. The increasingly frequent incidents stem from deliberate Russian information operations aimed at discrediting accounts that dare to cover the war in a manner unfavorable to the Kremlin. 🧵 Image 2/ For those who have followed him for a long time, David's experience is evident. As the frontline remains stagnant and Western media unnecessarily spreads panic over minor developments, we can clearly discern on who truly supports Ukraine and who is merely in it for followers. Image
Feb 26 6 tweets 3 min read
1/ The diminishing effectiveness of tanks has been a century-long process, and the rise of drones is merely another factor contributing to this very real trend. Doctrine evolves, and so does technology. Image 2/ Tanks have to evolve. Doctrinally and technologically. Like many things, military technology is subject to evolution. Pretending that any tank design, western or Russian, can decisively deal with drones and continue operating as it would ten years ago is self-deception.

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Feb 26 6 tweets 3 min read
⚡️Full Frontline Report ✚ 26.02.2024⚡️

1/ On the Zaporizhzhia Front, Russian forces made another attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses in Robotyne through a combined assault from the southern and western directions. No progress was achieved. Image 2/ On the enemy's own admission, the tactical approach employed by Ukrainian forces is noteworthy. Having control over the stronghold south of the settlement, the AFU allows the Russian spearheads to advance, only to find themselves encircled from all sides and annihilated. Image
Feb 1 6 tweets 1 min read
🇺🇦 To people following military developments: No, Ukraine is not running out of shells.

To politicians: Ukraine ran out of shells 3 months ago, please send help! The truth is that Ukraine is stockpiling shells, tanks and drones for future actions. The only difference is that with the massive domestic production of drones this is not felt as much. No one complains about tanks because they are not defensive assets to begin with.
Jan 29 7 tweets 2 min read
🤔 Odd, most government sources repeated the information including multiple members of the Ukrainian Rada and a certain spokesperson hinted towards it.
Dec 31, 2023 11 tweets 5 min read
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 1/ ⚠️ Behind the scenes: Shedding light on the failed offensive and Zaluzhny (thread):

On August 24th, the WSJ released a peculiar and at the time, controversial article allegedly capturing the interaction between the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief and western advisors. Image 2/ According to this article, American advisors had been urging Ukrainian command, including the CiC himself for "the past several weeks" to abandon all other axes/vectors of attack and focus SOLELY on the Orikhiv - Tokmak axis. Image
Nov 20, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇳⚔️🇩🇪 Using the situation on the western front of WW2 following the allied D-Day landings, to visualize the distinctions between a breakthrough, a breach, and a breakout. While details may very between doctrines, the underlying ideas remain the same. ⭐️ 1/ 💡 Breakout: Refers to a surrounded or otherwise operationally contained force escaping confinement. Similar, but not the same as a breakthrough.
Aug 28, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
Behind the Scenes: A Legacy of Steel - The Final moments of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

1/ It all began when Yevkurov, the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, embarked on a journey that would set the stage for a series of interesting events. Image 2/ Yevkurov's visit in Libya and Syria was marked by a proposal that raised a lot of eyebrows. A proposal to displace the infamous "Wagner" group from the two countries.
Jul 15, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
⚔️Full Frontline Report Thread⚔️July 15, 2023 ⚡️

In the #Zaporizhzhia direction, after an intense shelling campaign against Russian positions, the Armed Forces of #Ukraine managed to make further territorial gains northeast of #Robotyne. In the #Staromlynivka sector, Ukrainian elements launched reconnaissance operations and managed to secure marginal territorial advancements in the vicinity of Staromayorsk and #Priyutne. No large scale offensive actions were attempted by either side.