@fear_capital @joaomviso @PrefShares Ok. I'll stop being a prick.

The main issue with the roic reinvestment growth logic is that it treats companies as financial instruments than businesses. At higher multiples you veer into a fantasy land where all realistic growth asymptotes are ignored. @fear_capital @joaomviso @PrefShares There is a secondary issue where most of the analysis focuses on the roic part even though the growth is just as important, if not more.

Most of the time, runway analysis is just masked with 'reinvestment' blanket - and for good reason. It's much harder to analyze it.

One angle I haven't seen as broadly discussed regarding AI (groan) is how increasing consumer expectations often introduces unmet needs in enterprise markets.

Have seen this happen multiple times: smartphones, webapps etc.

Ppl use fancy stuff at home and want them at work. This, combined with new capabilities can lead to a relatively mature market / adjacent markets going through a bit of a renewal.

Probably will see something similar happen in multiple markets over the next 5-10 years.

Interesting stuff, but my list is quite different (other than point on comps). Short thread below:

https://twitter.com/CompoundingCap1/status/1543302174591143937

No 1: Not evolving. Most teams strike it big on a thread and never go beyond this, despite changing market environment and size. As a result, earlier investors reap benefit and followers just line the pockets of PMs.

During my time as analyst then PM at a sizeable, private asset mgmt co ($30B), I did decent number of meetings w institutional allocators.

I was shocked at the questions that never get asked.

A semi-running thread on QtNGA @EndowmentLP @ShitFund @tseides 1/ "The vast majority of our liquid net worth is invested alongside you"

QtNGA: “How does this compare to your net worth coming from shares in the asset mgmt co itself?”

You’d be shocked at how lopsided this number is for vast majority of the PMs. Incentivizes wrong behaviour.