We produced a national estimate of Biden +8 among likely voters from the CES on Thursday. Want to use this thread to talk about some of the methodology and how various choices may (or may not) affect this margin.

https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1321934550868627456

1) Because we are designed as an academic study and we re-interview respondents after the election to ask who they voted for, we do not have a question on the pre-election survey to push leaners. That leaves us with 7% of adults undecided (4% of likely voters).

Results from a nationally representative election poll fielded by our @TuftsUniversity Polling the 2020 Election seminar.

Nat'l Likely voters (10/20):
Biden 52%
Trump 45%

Interactive crosstabs: bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/tuftspoll/

Story: tischcollege.tufts.edu/tufts-students…

Key findings in the THREAD Who is voting early?

@jshochberg99 shows that both age and partisanship are important factors.

@aadhyashiv shows that students and people who are retired or disabled are more likely to vote early.

There are 17 figures in my new @CUP_PoliSci Element, but this is the one I keep thinking about because I think it can say a lot about what we've seen happen in reaction to Trump's expressions of prejudice over the past four years. Many have noted that Ds in particular appear to be trending toward giving more progressive responses to questions regarding racial stereotypes (@dhopkins1776) or racial resentment (@_amengel) or other measures of xenophobia (@johnmsides, Tesler, @vavreck).

Happy to announce that my new @CUP_PoliSci Elements book was published today.

I explore how Trump's rhetoric encourages some Americans to express more prejudice than they would otherwise. You can access it online for free until Nov 2 & here's a thread...
cambridge.org/core/elements/… First, an important point to make about what is happening is that there are countervailing trends in reaction to Trump's rhetoric. As @dhopkins1776 and Washington have demonstrated, many have reacted to Trump by expressing *less* prejudice in surveys.
academic.oup.com/poq/article-ab…

I worked on a couple of projects for #AAPOR that focused on the increasingly strong relationship between sexism and partisan divisions and I thought I’d do a little thread to highlight some major points. Shout out to @scluks who co-authored one of the papers with me. 1/10 First, the work I’ve done in this area uses a subset of items from the hostile sexism battery. Basically, a person’s level of hostile sexism is determined by how much they agree or disagree with statements like these. 2/10

How extreme do you have to be to want to ban abortions in all circumstances?
(all data from the 2018 CCES)
- 69% of those who strongly approve of Trump oppose a total ban
- 71% of those who voted in a Republican primary in 2018 oppose a total ban
1/4 - 73% of those who think we need to make it easier to carry concealed weapons oppose a total ban
- 69% who strongly agree that women typically complain about discrimination when they lose to men in a fair competition oppose a total ban
2/4

Want to elaborate a bit on the analysis of Bernie -> Trump voters that I tweeted out yesterday to respond to various inquiries. 1/n

https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/900123391155482624

Some asked for more detail on how Sanders primary voters behaved in general. This graphic shows this, including small % who abstained 2/n