@balajis's Threads
Ten years ago, Kauffman estimated that ~60 billion dollar revenue firms per year would need to be started to boost economic growth by 1%.
So, yes, it’s important to defend wealth creation. We aren’t doing nearly enough.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
So, yes, it’s important to defend wealth creation. We aren’t doing nearly enough.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Note that this is separate from the question of the distribution of created wealth.
Much data seems to show that the US middle class has been left out of growth for years.
Much deeper question as to what to do there, but tearing down Google isn’t going to usher in prosperity.
Much data seems to show that the US middle class has been left out of growth for years.
Much deeper question as to what to do there, but tearing down Google isn’t going to usher in prosperity.
One clarification: Kauffman Foundation article came out in 2010, so more accurate to say “nine years ago” rather than exactly ten.
Exit also strengthens voice.
The fact that Indian entrepreneurs are willing to migrate and vote with their feet/wallet against India’s crypto ban will catalyze change over the long run.
Many will probably set up in Singapore which is nearby.
The fact that Indian entrepreneurs are willing to migrate and vote with their feet/wallet against India’s crypto ban will catalyze change over the long run.
Many will probably set up in Singapore which is nearby.
I love India, but hate this policy. Very sad. Like banning the internet in the 90s, it means millions of people may lose out on the rise of crypto.
The most tragic part is that the cryptoeconomy is the first financial system that India can participate in as a true equal.
In the drafting of Bretton Woods, India was still a colony.
In the drafting of Bretton Woods, India was still a colony.
In the USSR, there were no billionaires. No millionaires either. Wealth creation was punishable by law, in a society based on envy.
We know where that ideology ends. In the murder of millions and the impoverishment of everyone, masses and elites alike.
quora.com/Who-were-wealt…
We know where that ideology ends. In the murder of millions and the impoverishment of everyone, masses and elites alike.
quora.com/Who-were-wealt…
We need more films about what happened in the USSR & PRC. The scripts are essentially there. Red Terror, Berlin Airlift, Prague Spring — just take Wikipedia articles & turn them into short YouTube videos.
If someone wants to do this, show me your portfolio as we could fund this.
If someone wants to do this, show me your portfolio as we could fund this.
This article was written ~20 years ago. And despite a few notable exceptions (Lives of Others, The Way Back, Bridge of Spies), the critique still holds.
Of course, Hollywood has now been disrupted as anyone can put video online. So now may be the time. reason.com/2000/06/01/hol…
Of course, Hollywood has now been disrupted as anyone can put video online. So now may be the time. reason.com/2000/06/01/hol…
1) Man goes viral
2) Man uses attention to raise ~$1M for charity
3) Journalist finds old posts to attack him for clicks
4) Man apologizes
5) Journalist's old posts now surface
6) Journalist is now getting canceled
Mutually assured cancellation.
2) Man uses attention to raise ~$1M for charity
3) Journalist finds old posts to attack him for clicks
4) Man apologizes
5) Journalist's old posts now surface
6) Journalist is now getting canceled
Mutually assured cancellation.
Due to social media, everyone is a public figure and everyone is a journalist.
Because everyone is a public figure, professional journalists feel justified in attacking them for clicks.
But because everyone is a journalist, professional journalists will get similar treatment.
Because everyone is a public figure, professional journalists feel justified in attacking them for clicks.
But because everyone is a journalist, professional journalists will get similar treatment.
Return fire changes the incentive structure for professional journos.
Before, they could simply attack someone's reputation for profit without much consequence. Now there is significant downside for doing so.
What the mob surfaces can be used by their peers to outwoke them.
Before, they could simply attack someone's reputation for profit without much consequence. Now there is significant downside for doing so.
What the mob surfaces can be used by their peers to outwoke them.
Any sufficiently cross functional project needs to be the company’s number one priority.
Reason: if there are N teams, and all of them are needed to ship, if even one team deprioritizes the project it won’t ship — and the time of the other teams will be wasted.
This results in a degenerative equilibrium where every group deprioritizes because they expect others to.
This results in a degenerative equilibrium where every group deprioritizes because they expect others to.
You can’t escape that equilibrium with a bottom up approach. And that’s why these initiatives must be driven top-down by the CEO or their designate.
Establishment culture: NYC parents paying huge sums to send two year olds to private preschools, while advocating public for others
Emerging culture: homeschool your kids, let them read books & play games, then set them up as contract programmers on Upwork once they can code
Emerging culture: homeschool your kids, let them read books & play games, then set them up as contract programmers on Upwork once they can code
Could also be Behance or 99 Designs or another microtask marketplace for different forms of digital labor.
Point is to get kids to learn by doing as soon as possible. This is the secret of many top tech people. They were building real things even in middle/high school.
Point is to get kids to learn by doing as soon as possible. This is the secret of many top tech people. They were building real things even in middle/high school.
Save the money you would have wasted on private schools and even college, and give it to them as a lump sum when they reach age of majority.
That becomes their seed funding. Far better than incinerating money on an increasingly useless diploma in a rigged higher ed system.
That becomes their seed funding. Far better than incinerating money on an increasingly useless diploma in a rigged higher ed system.
On-chain incorporation will turn corporate charters into code.
Every shareholder vote will be performed via digital wallets.
Every liquidation waterfall will be expressed as a function.
The nation states that first recognize on-chain vehicles will be advantaged as domiciles.
Every shareholder vote will be performed via digital wallets.
Every liquidation waterfall will be expressed as a function.
The nation states that first recognize on-chain vehicles will be advantaged as domiciles.
Corporate law firms are essentially coding in legalese, an obfuscated programming language without a REPL to simulate outcomes.
Moving all that to smart contracts over the next few decades will save billions and transform the way we create, fund, manage, and exit companies.
Moving all that to smart contracts over the next few decades will save billions and transform the way we create, fund, manage, and exit companies.
Here’s a good example of a function implemented in legalese. Solidity would be a step up! lawinsider.com/clause/liquida…
Three things I think could be combined:
- a social network
- a cryptocurrency
- a collaborative tool, like Google Docs++
This would combine people, money, and a tool to create value in one place.
- a social network
- a cryptocurrency
- a collaborative tool, like Google Docs++
This would combine people, money, and a tool to create value in one place.
Eugene Wei (@eugenewei) smartly repurposed the term "proof-of-work" to refer to the basic mechanism for content creation in a social network, like tweeting or posting.
What if we repurposed his repurposing & thought of the “work” as remunerated work? eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19…
What if we repurposed his repurposing & thought of the “work” as remunerated work? eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19…
@eugenewei The idea is that individuals, small groups, or perhaps even large groups could collaborate within a domain to produce digital things of value.
Coding would be like LinkedIn + Github + Github bounties
Design would be like Behance + 99designs + crypto
@scottbelsky @devonzuegel
Coding would be like LinkedIn + Github + Github bounties
Design would be like Behance + 99designs + crypto
@scottbelsky @devonzuegel
I’ve often thought that the most fundamental way to price things might be in joules.
How much energy did it take to assemble this phone, to pull the materials out of the ground and shape them into that configuration?
How much energy did it take to assemble this phone, to pull the materials out of the ground and shape them into that configuration?
Imagine something like this, but tracked for every product over time.
Knowing the joules required to build something would give us a ratio-scale measure of the cost of production.
And it would be comparable across different countries and time periods.
answers.google.com/answers/thread…
Knowing the joules required to build something would give us a ratio-scale measure of the cost of production.
And it would be comparable across different countries and time periods.
answers.google.com/answers/thread…
Conceptual precedents for this include MIT’s Billion Prices Project and the Kardashev scale.
If it worked, this “true” price system would let us disentangle factors like inflation and subsidies from the physical cost of manufacture.
If it worked, this “true” price system would let us disentangle factors like inflation and subsidies from the physical cost of manufacture.
Assume deepfakes become widespread. What’s the long term solution?
Perhaps every source of information will need to use digital signatures to establish provenance.
To impersonate the person, you would need to steal their (crypto?) private keys. Not impossible, but harder.
Perhaps every source of information will need to use digital signatures to establish provenance.
To impersonate the person, you would need to steal their (crypto?) private keys. Not impossible, but harder.
There are legitimate uses of this kind of tech for special effects, entertainment, or VR avatars.
Some of the second order consequences include widespread distrust in any “remote” sources of media. If it’s not from your tribe with multiple levels of auth, assume it’s fake.
Some of the second order consequences include widespread distrust in any “remote” sources of media. If it’s not from your tribe with multiple levels of auth, assume it’s fake.
Crypto digital signatures can also be used to prove financial alignment.
Does the person sending this message have a lot of the same timelocked crypto that I do?
If so, perhaps more trust — though only if defrauding a fellow hodler would reduce value of their holdings.
Does the person sending this message have a lot of the same timelocked crypto that I do?
If so, perhaps more trust — though only if defrauding a fellow hodler would reduce value of their holdings.
The closest thing I can think of to a truly new behavior with no immediate precedent that became popular is Amazon Echo.
People weren’t really walking around the house talking to themselves. I guess Siri existed but I don’t think (?) it was that popular.
People weren’t really walking around the house talking to themselves. I guess Siri existed but I don’t think (?) it was that popular.
But otherwise I agree with @BrianNorgard. What tends to happen instead is that niche behaviors get popularized by technology.
Going to library → Google
Looking at photo albums → FB
International calls → Skype
Call a taxi → Uber
Not new behaviors, but newly popular.
Going to library → Google
Looking at photo albums → FB
International calls → Skype
Call a taxi → Uber
Not new behaviors, but newly popular.
A sophon lock already kind of exists on every industry not related to computers. These sophons aren’t alien in origin but all too human.
See Eroom’s Law for how drug development has become exponentially more expensive over the last century: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom%27s…
See Eroom’s Law for how drug development has become exponentially more expensive over the last century: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom%27s…
The fundamental question of the next 20-30 years may be whether software eats the world before sophons lock the world.
I’m bullish mainly because of crypto.
Outside of that, we moved very quickly from banning straws & scooters to advocating the breakup or destruction* of the most valuable cos in the US.
These things are never surgical. Startups will also suffer.
* Eg: archive.is/ks1jf
Outside of that, we moved very quickly from banning straws & scooters to advocating the breakup or destruction* of the most valuable cos in the US.
These things are never surgical. Startups will also suffer.
* Eg: archive.is/ks1jf
As scale increases, alignment decreases. Eventually a sufficiently disaligned organization degenerates into infighting.
We can turn this into a mathematical model that will predict the optimal size of a network, and the point beyond which network defects dominate.
We can turn this into a mathematical model that will predict the optimal size of a network, and the point beyond which network defects dominate.
Metcalfe’s law is based on the idea that every node gains value from every other node. Hence N^2 utility.
Odlyzko argues that it’s more like N log(N), as most nodes don’t contribute value to other nodes.
But neither model predicts a network size beyond which utility declines.
Odlyzko argues that it’s more like N log(N), as most nodes don’t contribute value to other nodes.
But neither model predicts a network size beyond which utility declines.
However, if we think of network participants as playing a game, we can forecast an optimal network size.
Specifically we look for the point at which a coalition can achieve a better payoff from defecting than by collaborating with all other players. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperati…
Specifically we look for the point at which a coalition can achieve a better payoff from defecting than by collaborating with all other players. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperati…
Coil/Imgur, Stellar/Keybase, EOS VC/Mythical Games, and (sigh) Tron/BitTorrent are all examples of an emerging concept I call the “network capitalist”. These are cryptonetworks that use their balance sheets to buy stakes in tech cos, thereby getting them onto their platform.
These deals are a hybrid between VC and platform evangelism. The cryptonetwork has money but wants users, so they do a deal with a property which has users but wants money. In theory, both parties get ROI from appreciation of the underlying coin — if use picks up.
There are a lot of these deals in the pipeline. We’ll see if they work. It’s part of the general trend in which crypto is evolving in the opposite direction from social. Social gained users first, monetization second. Crypto is the reverse.
The extent to which YIMBY folks have shifted the discourse over the last few years is impressive. Feels like they have the moral high ground and momentum now nationally. Credit to @SonjaTrauss for her persistence.
Of course, some would argue that the moral debate is just a proxy for the economic tug-of-war between renters and owners. Perhaps a statistical analysis would show that there are now more information workers on the renter side than the owner side. That would explain the shift.
Still feels like it will be too little, too late for San Francisco. Huge lag time between when the law changes and when buildings are move-in ready. The US as a whole is far behind China here, and falling further behind. Compare this from 2012 to SF 2019:
Many people find the concept of a “brand” to be vague. We can try defining it quantitatively: a brand is the statistical distribution of words & images that a given audience associates with a brand name or logo.
You can measure this empirically by (a) surveying an audience or (b) looking at what they write and say about the brand online. The words and images they associate with the brand name/logo are the brand. Like software, a brand has an installed base — it’s just in people’s heads.
When people talk about the strength of a brand, they are implicitly referring to this installed base. A really powerful brand doesn’t just evoke a word association, it actually becomes the first word you think of. Example: you don’t just associate search with Google, you google.
Great post by Elad. Deserves a longer writeup, but I’m still bearish on San Francisco proper in the medium term. Silicon Valley/South Bay is better than SF — but the future is decentralized assets. In 20 years or so, the top five entities in the world may be public chains.
San Francisco has 30,000 car breakins a year. The streets are filthy and a health hazard. It’s extraordinarily expensive. Yet feces and prices rise in tandem! This is a bubble which will burst when the right alternative finally appears, like taxi medallions.
San Francisco can be compared to a terrible product with great legacy distribution. Users hate it & want to leave. But network effects keep people in — for a while at least — as extractive rents continue to soar. When the true alternative finally arrives, exit will be rapid.
Decentralize or be nationalized. That’s the long term choice for major tech cos. China is already there, as Tencent/Alibaba are de facto state controlled. In the West, it may be done through licensing/antitrust/regulation vs outright seizure. The only alternative may be on chain.
As a rough analogy, Adobe — the ultimate desktop app vendor — had to migrate much of its infra to the cloud in order to survive. It did so at great difficulty & ultimately thrived. Analogously, many cos may need to migrate to decentralized backends. The chain, or the leash.
As noted, these trends are long term. Blockchains can’t yet scale to handle moderate amounts of traffic on-chain, let alone GAFAM volumes. But web apps were similarly technically constrained in ~2000 relative to desktop apps. A lot will change in 10-20 years in terms of scaling.
It’s much cheaper to scream at the outgroup than to invest in the ingroup.
The singularity is here. It’s just a virtue signaling singularity, happening in every community at once, including those nominally opposed to the concept of virtue signaling.
One underlying reason may be that status appears locally nonzero-sum but is globally zero-sum. That is, while an upvote doesn’t cost you anything, only one post can be at the top of the leaderboard. Hence any status-based network ultimately devolves into zero-sum competition.
Technologies like email, GPS, online maps, smartphones, streaming video, etc are no longer new. They are the new normal. Like living through the early 20th century when electricity, landlines, automobiles became popular. visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-t…
As an investor one always thinks about ways in which a tech product could be disrupted. But it’s interesting to step back and ask: have some things attained their close-to-final form, at least for a while? For example, have Google Maps or YouTube changed *that* much recently?
If an industry is still young, the UX and the business model can be subject to radical disruption by a centralized actor (eg Zipcar to Uber). But if the feature set has been locked for a while, a different threat arises: a decentralized competitor (eg commercial Unix to Linux).
If big companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon are prevented from acquiring startups, that actually reduces competition. The reason is that if there is less M&A due to legal uncertainty, there is a reduced incentive for angels & VCs to fund those startups in the first place.
Just like SOX made IPOs hard, the wrong policy could make it hard to get acquired. And like SOX, there would be unanticipated consequences. No IPOs led to companies staying private and massive expansion of VC. Closing off bigco M&A too might mean turning to crypto for liquidity.
A regulation that purports to reduce the power of a large company frequently ends up increasing it, by erecting barriers to entry for startups. Often that barrier is licensing. In this case the barrier would be reduced access to capital.
This is an interesting prediction. I guess we’re already there if you think of Google Search as a function that takes in a string and returns a list of URLs. But it’s a thought provoking exercise to try reducing a company’s core competency to the functions it implements.
Now, obviously Google Search has more than one or two people working on that function. But it’s a billion dollar function nonetheless. Others that likely already qualify: geocoding, face recognition, machine translation. All have simple input with high backend complexity.
Good question for a software company: what’s your billion dollar function? For Facebook it’s arguably the* function that advertisers call to put ads in front of users. The defensibility comes from their database.
* Not quite a single function today, but probably could be.
* Not quite a single function today, but probably could be.
Would be interesting if MS/Github leads to some kind of fusion of atom.io and code.visualstudio.com. If the combo was open-source, customizable, and had a modern API for writing plugins…that might actually get me to try something other than emacs. @natfriedman
Aha, I see someone else had the same thought a while back. Atom and VisualStudio are both Electron-based, so the idea isn't that crazy. i-programmer.info/news/90-tools/…
Would be interested in the opinions of folks who have heavily customized emacs or vim environments, and who work in Mac and Linux environments with a number of different languages. As of 2018, are Atom and/or Code as good?
