Notes on the manufacturing productivity slowdown
1. A common narrative: "US manufacturing output has held steady even as employment has fallen -- productivity growth in the industry has remained high"
Laying out my current timelines: a four-part mixture model
(1) 2028 (15% chance): METR trends accelerate a la Kotajlo et al; bottlenecks are NBD; “AI automation of AI research is transformative enough”. Yudkowsky 2008 was basically right
