2 general & persistent points about Russia & terrorist attacks - a short 🧵:
1) Putin routinely blames outsiders (esp the US) for terrorist attacks caused by internal problems. 1/6 He did this most famously with respect to Beslan in 2004, when he said that “others” help the terrorists because they would like to “tear off a juicy piece” of Russia. 2/6
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

A few resources on #Navalny, especially for those who don’t closely follow Russian politics. All in English. 🧵

1 of my favorite portraits of Navalny is actually about his equally impressive wife, Yulia Navalnaya. By @juliaioffe. 1/8
archive.vanityfair.com/article/2021/9… A TED talk by his daughter Dasha Navalnaya about her father. 2/8

go.ted.com/bCW67

Statement of Maj-Gen Popov, removed as commander of 58th Army in Zaporizhzhia, is really something. Coming on heels of Prigozhin mutiny, suggests growing civil-military relations problems. Key part of text at @the_ins_ru, I'll put a few quotes in 🧵:

theins.ru/news/263392 "A difficult situation arose with the high command. I either had to keep quiet & be a coward & say what they wanted to hear, or call a spade a spade. In the name of all of you & all our dead friends, I had no right to lie."

Interesting long read on “how Putin came to hate Ukraine” by Ilya Zhegulev. Based on insider interviews. Claims that decision for war was taken in Feb-Mar 2021. “Last straw” – closing of Medvedchuk’s TV channels. 1/4
verstka.media/8964-2 Consistent w/ others, says Putin didn’t consult many people, & that Yuri Kovalchuk was v influential during pandemic. Putin thought regime change in Kyiv would be easy. “Kovalchuk convinced him that the West is weak; Medvedchuk convinced him that Ukraine is weak & loyal.” 2/4

New article w/ @ReneedeNevers. BLUF: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t just another land grab. It’s an attempt to recolonize lost empire, and threatens to return us to the age of conquest. A thread: 1/8

journalofdemocracy.org/putins-war-of-… The piece was provoked by calls for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, given the grinding nature of the war. “Realists” argue that this is the way the world works. But this is not true today. What Russia is doing is a jarring anomaly post-WW2. 2/8

This article on Putin and his generals is largely about civil-military relations (CMR). The basic thrust is that Putin is wrongly meddling in military decisions. A brief 🧵1/6

nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/… Putin is rejecting military requests to withdraw from Kherson. Military rationale is they can’t reliably supply forces across the Dnipro, & they should pull back to more defensible positions. Putin’s rationale, it seems, is that retreating would be too politically costly. 2/6

I wrote a thing. A short🧵follows.
Most agree that Putin doesn’t currently face the threat of a coup or revolution. I ask a different Q: what happens if Putin leaves office unexpectedly, due to death or illness for example? 1/6

foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi… via @ForeignAffairs Putin has weakened formal rules & made himself the key to the system. That means great uncertainty if he is “incapable of fulfilling his duties.” There is 1 clear rule though: the Prime Minister becomes acting president & new elections are held. 2/6

.@JimGoldgeier asked what I thought. 4 points:
1) Agree, great 🧵.
2) 1 potential difference (?) w/ SE Asia cases is that some of the key guys are Putin’s people going back decades. You would think this would make it even more likely that they would stick w/ him. 1/5

https://twitter.com/TomPepinsky/status/1501714238758346752

Hypothetically though, their very closeness to Putin might make it possible for a crony to level w/ him about the scale of the economic disaster facing Russia, which seems even bigger than the Asian econ crisis. Not to topple him but to find a way out. 2/5

My piece "Has Putin Lost It?” is now up @RiddleRussia. I argue that the thoughts & feelings behind Putin’s war are deep-seated. A short 🧵. 1/5
ridl.io/en/has-putin-l… Putin has always been an emotional & resentful leader. He has long accused 🇺🇸 of supporting neo-Nazis & Islamic terrorists. In 2007 he compared 🇺🇸 to Nazi Germany. He has seemed to endorse conspiracy theories that 🇺🇸 wants to break up 🇷🇺 & divide up its resources. 2/5

Watching the economic news out of Russia as sanctions hit, I was reminded of the programmatic statement Putin made 22 years ago on his first day in office. It was called "Russia on the Eve of the Millennium." This is what he promised Russians. A short thread of quotes: 1/7 "People want stability, certainty, the ability to plan for the future - their own and their children's - not for a month, but for years, decades. They want to work in conditions of peace, security, and a firm legal order." 2/7