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Computer Cowboy Profile picture
Computer Cowboy
@benbbaldwin
@ben_bot_baldwin | @nflfastR | @Open_Source_FB Danny's economist friend | bbaldwin206 at gmail dotcom
2 subscribers
Feb 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Image 33 out of 50 voters did not have PATRICK MAHOMES on their ballot. I'm dying
Oct 22, 2024 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
~~ Week 7 NFL Thread ~~

Ah yes the Ravens are still good Image Recent movement in team tiers

-- The Lion is jumping
-- The Raiders' offense single-handedly made the Rams' defense look competent
-- CIN offense falling back to earth Image
Sep 24, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
~~ Week 3 NFL Thread ~~

Featuring the Buffalo Bills who are #good again

The Commanders' offense is lapping the field in the NFC as we all expected Image The most consistent offense in terms of keeping the chains moving is the Washington Commanders Image
Sep 17, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
~~ Week 2 NFL Thread ~~

The Bills are good and the Panthers are not

(asterisk for the Chargers/Saints because they played the Panthers)

Look at Washington's offense! Image With all the hand-wringing about the Eagles' offense, they're still the 4th-most consistent team at moving the chains.

The top 3 in this measure are the Saints, Cardinals, and Commanders, as we all would have predicted Image
Sep 11, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Adjusted EPA numbers after Week 1.

Because sample sizes are small, QBs affected by high-leverage drops get a large boost (Darnold, Purdy, Stafford, Burrow). Stafford also gets a large boost due to disastrous pass protection. Image The unluckiest play in Week 1 in terms of a QB's EPA: 4th & 4, Stafford puts it right on Kupp, no catch.

Expected EPA: 2.3
Actual EPA: -3.5
Sep 10, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
~~NFL Team Tiers Week 1~~

-- Is one week of games way too early to learn much? Yes
-- Are we going to let that stop us from posting charts? No
-- Is the NFC West the best division in football? Many people are asking this Image Quarterback efficiency on early downs vs late downs

I would not feel good about the Jones/Cousins/Watson cluster... Image
Feb 2, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We have 2 years of FTN charting data.

Here's adjusted EPA per play since the start of the 2022 season Image When you know your code ran correctly Image
Oct 24, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
~~ 7 weeks of the NFL season in the books~~

Here come the Ravens

The Bills and Seahawks have to two hardest remaining schedules per @inpredict (both have played top-5 easiest schedules to date) Image Recent movement in team tiers

-- Can see regression in offenses of SF/MIA/BUF/LAC
-- CLE defense no longer an outlier
-- Tyrod > Daniel Jones? Image
Feb 24, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Using publicly available data and open-source code, I wrote (!) about constructing NFL draft curves and explained why top picks aren't as valuable as we think they are (if they aren't being used on a quarterback)

On @Open_Source_FB: opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-… @Open_Source_FB In this post I create a draft value surplus curve (left) and find that it has a similar to @PFF_Moo's (right). Both curves show the famous "Loser's curse" first uncovered by Massey & Thaler: the top picks are less valuable than later picks because they are expensive
Jan 9, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Final regular season thread

The Lions are fun and it would have been fun to see them in the playoffs Image How consistent each team's offense was at taking 1st and 10s and earning a new set of downs Image
Jan 9, 2023 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Only through the power of watching tape can you understand how good the interior of the Lions' OL is amirite There are several people in my mentions claiming that the Lions' offensive line gave up 3 pressures last night so I regret to inform you that the Lions tweets must go on
Jan 6, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is a nice mathematical breakdown walking through the tremendous advantage that the Chiefs have received due to everything that happened this week Image If we take Seth's calculations at face value, then relative to a 50/50 coin flip of CIN-BUF (or if game had actually been played), the NFL effectively took 26% of BUF's chances for 1 seed, and 8% of CIN's chances for a 1 seed, and gave it all to the Chiefs (51% --> 85% for KC) Image
Dec 21, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Inspired by @greerreNFL, decided to compare these ratings to other measures. Here's a thread Let's look at how each of the components of The Ringer's ratings relate to CPOE.

CPOE is mostly a proxy for accuracy, so we'd expect it to be most strongly related to accuracy.

And that's what we see ✔️
Dec 20, 2022 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
~~We are 15 weeks into the NFL season~~

I hope Jalen Hurts is okay, the Bengals are good, the Bucs are not, the Vikings are exactly average, and the Vaunted Packers Defense is running out of time Image Quarterback passing efficiency on early and late downs

Of QBs still playing (ie not Jimmy G or Mariota), Trevor Lawrence is No. 4 in EPA/dropback on early downs! (and somehow Tannehill is still No. 5 with a practice squad roster) Image
Nov 8, 2022 • 21 tweets • 6 min read
~~Week 9 thread~~

Exactly half of this year's regular season games have been played (136 of 272).

Through half the season, I'd say the biggest surprises are the Dolphins (good) and Rams (bad), with honorable mentions to the Browns & Seahawks Image The Patriots' defense got a huge boost from playing the Colts, Seattle's defense continues to recover from an awful start, and the Chiefs' offense might be good Image
Nov 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Haha yes Oh wow

Oct 25, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
~~ Where teams sit after 7 weeks of the 2022 season~~

The poor Jaguars are extremely unlucky to be 2-5 right now -- RIP 49ers defense
-- The Bengals' offense has come to life
-- Miami's offense has died (some of this is backup QBs in past weeks)
-- The Giants/Seahawks might be real NFL teams this year
-- What is going on with the Lions??
Oct 4, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
--Week 4 NFL Tiers--

The question taking America by storm: who is the 2nd-best team in the NFC? Passing game efficiency on early downs and late downs

SEA >> DEN and DET >> LA are both things that are happening here
Dec 22, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Game-changing defensive holding call on Seattle that negates a stop on 3rd & 12 and leads to a Rams touchdown.

I don't know about this one No DPI on 4th & 6 here
Dec 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Dude can't stop talking about horse paste lmao Evidence for ivermectin is mostly based on very flawed studies (that have been retracted!).

There is **overwhelming** evidence that the vaccines are effective at reducing the likelihood of transmission and of serious illness.

And yet Rodgers refuses vaccine & praises ivermectin
Dec 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 New analytics rant just dropped 🚨

"What is analytics? Who are these people? Are they some kid in the basement in Des Moines that's just run the numbers?" "Why is 3 points so bad, especially early in a game? [...] I'd rather have 3 than 0"

These thoughts are useful in understanding the old guard's resistance to what we're doing