I serve as the Chief Investment Strategist for Freedom Investment Management. I help our advisors understand the markets and design investment solutions.
Aug 8 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Just got an update from a structured credit specialist. Some interesting on-the-ground observations, which led me to conclude why I would be surprised if the Fed DIDN'T cut 50 bp at the Sept FOMC. Thread @EconstratPB @JLinWins @rhemrajani9
2) First, this past week's yen-carry unwind had minimal impact on loan and CLO pricing as debt spreads widened very little. The Japanese banks that hold a significant amount of AAA-tranches are swapping USD income back into yen, so no forced selling due to yen appreciation.
Feb 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The big elephant in the room that hardly anyone is addressing: the cost of borrowing versus its availability. Up to this point, the Fed has only influenced the former, not the latter. And the former has not been enough to arrest end demand. 1/N
People and businesses are still borrowing to fund current consumption and investment even if at a higher cost. Even if banks are pulling back loan books and tightening standards, the slack is being picked up in private lending (read shadow banking). 2/N bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
