Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ Profile picture
Employment Policy Fellow @niskanencenter. Previously @ideas42. @hampshirecolg grad. Procrastination expert. Opinions correlated with my employer's (R^2 = 0.7).
May 4 18 tweets 6 min read
I have a new piece up at @NiskanenCenter, which digs into the data used in a recent @asdomash and @LHSummers essay, and suggests an alternative interpretation:… (1/18) Here's the article I'm responding to:… (2/18)
May 4 14 tweets 5 min read
"I have a new piece at @MilkenInstitute "Requiem for the Child Tax Credit".

I usually try to summarize articles with a tweet thread - but one this is a bit long, so I'm only going to quickly touch on the main themes.…" One thing to note is that this was initially going to be a "History of welfare reform through AFDC and TANF and how it has led us to the CTC" piece.

It had to be written substantially earlier this year when that didn't happen 🫠
Apr 7 4 tweets 2 min read
This is a good example of the precise problem @JerusalemDemsas was discussing.

The article (…) notes that more than 7,000 evictions were filed in March, but doesn't note that this is 40% of the pre-pandemic average. You can get the data from @evictionlab…
Apr 6 5 tweets 2 min read
Looking forward to digging into this.

Lots of businesses have been built around the assumption that there's going to be a readily available supply of low wage workers available.

That's not the case right now; with luck it will not be the case going forward. That means that some business models don't work right now; which can mean that they aren't bought into the goal of an expanding economy.

I talked about this last fall:…
Mar 15 19 tweets 5 min read
New piece in @NiskanenCenter summarizing the recent @USTreasury Report on labor market competition.

It's a great piece covering a lot of recent economic research, but it, unfortunately, pulls its punches in the policy recommendations.… (1/18) Here's the report!:… (2/18)
Jan 24 6 tweets 3 min read
I have been waiting for this study to come out for YEARS.… “This is the first study to show that money, in and of itself, has a causal impact on brain development." - @KimberlyGNoble
Jan 21 4 tweets 1 min read
This is one of those policy changes that it feels like everyone is making into a bigger deal than it actually is.

It's a pilot program that is 1.) Limited to 3,000 people 2.) Only allows teenagers to drive a truck alone after driving 280 hours with an adult passenger. There are 3.5 million truck drivers - another 3,000 isn't going to impact the supply chain much (nor drive wages down).

Especially with the requirement to have an adult passenger!
Jan 18 13 tweets 4 min read
What if you took Esping-Anderson's data from "Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism" and used FANCY MACHINE LEARNING (read:k means clustering) to come up with your own typology of the welfare state? Let's find out! Here's the initial data, and a 2-dimensional representation of the (3-dimensional) data. We're able to capture 88% of the variance with the flattening.
Jan 3 11 tweets 2 min read
Lots of tendentious dunks on this, but it's a good question!

If we want to understand people's finances, we should define our terms. The 80% number seems to come from a CareerBuilder survey.…
Dec 25, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
"University of Chicago economists predicted about 1.5 million parents would exit the labor force because of the increase in welfare programs"

Pretty sloppy writing here - important to differentiate between income and substitution effects.… Corinth and Meyer's work - like others - do not find substantial effects from the increased size of the welfare program.

Instead, they find that the reduction comes from the decreased in the effective subsidy to work from the CTC phase-in.
Dec 25, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
So the shortest day came, and the year died,
And everywhere down the centuries of the snow-white world
Came people singing, dancing,
To drive the dark away. They lighted candles in the winter trees;
They hung their homes with evergreen,
They burned beseeching fires all night long
To keep the year alive.
Nov 22, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
If this graph is causal than *eliminating* the ARP entirely (not just smaller checks or whatever) would result in...6% inflation.

Doesn't seem a big deal. Image Here's the graph with every OECD country: Image
Nov 17, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Montana has ended it's Return To Work program, and is reallocating the money to other uses:… As @ArthurDelaneyHP and @taragolshan noted a few months ago, very few states managed to get RTW money out.…
Nov 16, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
I made a google sheet so anyone can make check the numbers here:…
Nov 3, 2021 42 tweets 17 min read
Watching this after solving some supply chain issues (It seems I no longer own working headphones). @DrDaronAcemoglu isn't worried about automation destroying jobs, but is worried about the U.S. capacity to create good jobs for people without a college degree.… Image
Oct 14, 2021 8 tweets 1 min read
Yeah - I think this is the most important point. We're used to thinking about unemployment primarily with respect to business cycle/involuntary employment.
Oct 12, 2021 21 tweets 5 min read
Feels like we are all discussing what pieces of the Reconciliation Bill can be cut. But, especially after last Friday's job report, Congress should be looking for ways to put UI back in. Me at @NiskanenCenter:… With the enhanced UI ending last month, a lot of people were hoping that we'd see a big jump in September's employment numbers. We didn't.
Oct 8, 2021 15 tweets 4 min read
Quick pause in the jobs day discourse! Yesterday, a paper from the Becker Friedman Institute came out, with new estimated effects of the CTC on employment (🔼) and poverty (🔽). I've got a response at @niskanencenter here:… First - this isn't a methodological critique. See for that, and I'm sure other folks are looking at the paper now.

But how should we interpret the findings as given?
Oct 4, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
@EconHembre Yeah - I think the majority of critiques can also be applied the EITC. @EconHembre A plausible defense of the EITC is something like:

1.) Because EITC is implemented through the tax code, the additional administrative burdens are smaller. 2.) EITC is possibly a bit more legible to recipients.
Sep 28, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Important point from @MattBruenig. Echoes many of the points @PeteTheCitizen has raised about work requirements:…
Sep 24, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
"Remember the Return-to-Work bonuses that states announced to great fanfare last spring?

In most states, very few people have actually managed to get the bonus.… I've been curious about this for a while- thanks to @ArthurDelaneyHP and @taragolshan for tracking the data down!