There are 3.5 million truck drivers - another 3,000 isn't going to impact the supply chain much (nor drive wages down).
Especially with the requirement to have an adult passenger!
Jan 18 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
What if you took Esping-Anderson's data from "Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism" and used FANCY MACHINE LEARNING (read:k means clustering) to come up with your own typology of the welfare state? Let's find out!
Here's the initial data, and a 2-dimensional representation of the (3-dimensional) data. We're able to capture 88% of the variance with the flattening.
Jan 3 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of tendentious dunks on this, but it's a good question!
If we want to understand people's finances, we should define our terms.
"University of Chicago economists predicted about 1.5 million parents would exit the labor force because of the increase in welfare programs"
Pretty sloppy writing here - important to differentiate between income and substitution effects.
Corinth and Meyer's work - like others - do not find substantial effects from the increased size of the welfare program.
Instead, they find that the reduction comes from the decreased in the effective subsidy to work from the CTC phase-in.
Dec 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So the shortest day came, and the year died,
And everywhere down the centuries of the snow-white world
Came people singing, dancing,
To drive the dark away.
They lighted candles in the winter trees;
They hung their homes with evergreen,
They burned beseeching fires all night long
To keep the year alive.
Nov 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If this graph is causal than *eliminating* the ARP entirely (not just smaller checks or whatever) would result in...6% inflation.
We're used to thinking about unemployment primarily with respect to business cycle/involuntary employment.
Oct 12, 2021 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
Feels like we are all discussing what pieces of the Reconciliation Bill can be cut. But, especially after last Friday's job report, Congress should be looking for ways to put UI back in. Me at @NiskanenCenter: niskanencenter.org/congress-shoul…
With the enhanced UI ending last month, a lot of people were hoping that we'd see a big jump in September's employment numbers. We didn't.
Quick pause in the jobs day discourse! Yesterday, a paper from the Becker Friedman Institute came out, with new estimated effects of the CTC on employment (🔼) and poverty (🔽). I've got a response at @niskanencenter here: niskanencenter.org/reevaluating-t…
First - this isn't a methodological critique. See