@perfctlyGoodInk@ClashIrony So to some degree, we're in a blind-people-and-the-elephant situation here. (Proverbial blind people apparently can't hear echoes or feel radiated warmth.) The elephant is made of all the elections that would happen if STAR and IRV were used more widely.
@perfctlyGoodInk@ClashIrony I think that the right thing to do in such a situation is to try to build probabilistic models. The internal dynamics should be a good compromise between realistic and tractably-abstracted, and the implied uncertainty should start out pretty broad.
Oct 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
@ClashIrony@DCInbox Under some definition of "worse", I can't argue: STAR is relatively more likely to elect a Cond. loser, though I think in absolute terms that's still very unlikely. But I think you're very wrong on "more frequently"; by same token, IRV's center squeeze is than STAR's.
@ClashIrony (*is worse than)
I think it helps to consider utilities, not just preference matrices. Note that if all voters are "A or bust", that's evidence that actual utilities all run 5-1-0 or more extreme, and Cond. loser can actually be utility winner.
I'm writing this based on my understanding of Nate's "nontechnical" explanation of their methodology. Unlike @gelliottmorris, @NateSilver538 hasn't published code, so I'm doing some degree of imprecise tea-leaf-reading here.
2/🧵
Aug 4, 2020 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
How can we measure the quality of a democratic voting method for electing a legislature?
Until now, there have been no well-defined metrics that work for diverse voting methods and party systems.
I've been pondering this, literally for years. I can finally answer. Read on:
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Ideally, a good voting method should:
① Give all voters equal power; ensure that they are equally represented.
② Give voters as much choice as possible in how to exercise that power; ensure that each voter's representative is somebody they truly prefer.
/2
Aug 13, 2019 • 18 tweets • 12 min read
@UtilaTheEcon@Fix12thAmend I use four lenses to look at this problem:
① Statistical. You have a multi-dimensional distribution of voters in ideology-space, and the job of a voting system is to faithfully reproduce the median in all contested, policy-relevant dimensions. This is PoV of the original thread.
@UtilaTheEcon@Fix12thAmend ② Deliberative. Goal is to elect a parliament that can creatively find solutions to common problems. Viewpoint diversity is usually a plus, except that some people, just frankly toxic and closed-minded, should be kept out.
Jun 30, 2019 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
Post-Rucho, Gerrymandering is a crisis. That is, we need to be working on solutions.
Only 3 possibilities: 1. Live with it. Let minorities rule and try to ensure your group cheats best. 2. Draw better maps. State referendums or lawsuits, or fed laws. (Fed lawsuits are out.)
…
3. Stop wasting votes. Proportional representation, imposed from Congress.
Option 1 is unacceptable. 2 is surely needed, but can't fully solve the problem. So 3 is needed. Yes, it's an uphill battle—grassroots must grow >100x to win. But if you understand, time to speak out!
…
Jun 29, 2019 • 78 tweets • 24 min read
In the shadow of the deplorable SCOTUS decision in #Rucho, it's time once again to talk about how to fix gerrymandering. So, here comes a thread.
(Betcha never seen a Twitter thread w/ToC before!)
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Elections twitter peeps have probably heard me make these points before. You may agree with some, disagree with others. Either way, respond! Above all, I want to spark dialogue. I saw in BC how, when we don't get ahead of the curve, we end up behind it.
2
You think I’m talking about Brexit zealotry? Nah. Voting theory.
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@TobiasNowacki@laderafrutal@benwansell@simonjhix@chrishanretty Sorry, don’t mean to be glib. I just don’t want people to assume they know what I’m going to say. I’ll be on all sides of the Twitter Voting Theory Wars here.
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Oct 14, 2018 • 16 tweets • 9 min read
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*Every* main argument of the #NoBCProRep campaign is misleading somehow. Pilon's essay academia.edu/37553274/Revie… is devastating in understated academic terms but the public debate is even starker.
Here comes a thread where I respond to each of @NoBCProRep's last 10 tweets.
2/12
Basically true, according to angusreid.org/wp-content/upl… . But in same link, aside from the referendum, 57% of those polled in BC support #ProRep. ≥50% in each province polled except Manitoba. That is, 100% have some opinion, albeit unsure on referendum.
Sep 28, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/The Senate is badly broken. 51 Republican senators represent the 54M people who voted for them or their appointers; 49 non-Republican senators represent 79M people who voted for them. medium.com/@jameson.quinn…
