1/ Where will AI be in 2027?
A new report - AI 2027, by Daniel Kokotajlo & Scott Alexander et al (influential figures in AI & rationalist thought) theorises a “best guess”month-by-month scenario of how we could reach superintelligence within two years: .

Here’s what it says:ai-2027.com 2/ 2025 (Mid–Late):
•AI assistants become mainstream: managing spreadsheets, emails, shopping.
•Coding agents rapidly advance, accelerating research workflows.
•Frontier labs invest in datacenters for models trained with 10x today’s compute.

THREAD: how tariffs could reshape the future of tech

1/ The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports- with higher rates for China, Vietnam and Japan.
This isn’t just trade policy.
It’s a structural shift that challenges how the tech ecosystem is sourced, built and scaled.

Why?
Because US still dominates AI software. This requires global hardware, and hardware largely depends on Asia.
These tariffs (directly and indirectly) impact the essentials: batteries, chips, rare earths and assembly lines. 2/ Let’s look at how it impacts US tech giants.
Apple:
•Nearly half of all iPhones are built in China
•Components like displays and batteries come from Japan, Vietnam, Korea
•Tariffs = higher costs for Apple or higher prices for consumers

History of Tariffs in 12 Tweets:

I went down a rabbit hole - stay with me.

Tariffs have been used for 4,000+ years to fund empires, protect industries & wage trade wars. Sometimes they spark growth. Other times? Collapse.

A (nerdy, hopefully useful) thread: 📜 1. Ancient Empires (c. 2000 BCE – 500 CE)

Tariffs used to fund empire and control trade routes.
•Babylon, Egypt, Persia: Toll-like duties at city gates.
•Rome’s portoria (customs duties) helped fund roads and armies.
Worked? Yes, to raise revenue. Not designed for growth.

🧠 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸(𝗶𝗻𝗴) 𝗧𝗮𝗻𝗸(𝗶𝗻𝗴)?
AI is getting smarter. Are we?
In our latest Think Tank we discussed emerging research which suggests we may be outsourcing not just tasks—but cognition itself 👇 1/3 A study in Smart Learning Environments found heavy AI use reduces independent analytical thinking.
Another from shows younger users relying on AI score lower on critical thinking tests.
This is called “cognitive offloading.”Phys.org

🚨 Mercedes-Benz Makes History with Humanoid Robots on the Factory Floor 🚨

A 5’8” humanoid robot, Apollo, just completed a fully autonomous task at Mercedes-Benz’s Berlin factory—marking a major milestone for AI-driven robotics.

But this is just the beginning. 🧵👇🏼 1/ Unlike traditional robotic arms, humanoids are flexible—they can switch tasks, work alongside humans, and reduce production costs without reconfiguring assembly lines. Mercedes-Benz is investing millions in trials across Germany & Hungary.

Wildfires are raging. There’s a $100 billion shortfall in prevention in 2025. How could tech help bridge the gap? A thread: 1/ Dangerous wildfires are ripping through Los Angeles leaving communities reeling. This is not new in Southern California. Each year, wildfires burn a vast acreage in the state. More severe & frequent in recent decades.

1/  Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are create a dangerous spiral: tensions disrupt trade, while trade disruptions exacerbate tensions. Here’s what’s happening — and what it means for 2025: diginomica.com/fragile-web-gl… 2/ A textbook example: the 2024 Red Sea attacks. Shipping routes were disrupted, costs rose and regional militarization escalated. Trade breakdowns didn’t just reflect conflict — they aggravated tensions.

1/6 The US just upped the ante in its “chip war” with China- what does that mean for global tech?

The outgoing Biden admin just announced sweeping new export controls aimed at slowing advanced AI development and military applications in China 2/6 𝐒𝐨, 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐰?
• Restrictions on exporting High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), critical for training advanced AI models.
• Sanctioning 140 Chinese companies & 24 chipmaking tools.
• Extension of extraterritorial rules (FDPR), targeting foreign firms using US tech.

Explainer: Industrial AI - what it is & why it matters 1/ Consumer AI vs. Industrial AI
We know the AI that generates images, schedules or personalizes daily life, but Industrial AI goes deeper—revolutionizing core processes that keep countries moving. Transforming productivity, safety, sustainability on a massive scale. Here’s how:

AI & the Future of Global Dominance- quick thread
1/5 Industrial AI is poised to reshape the global order like the Industrial Revolution once did. The stakes are not just economic- they are geopolitical and historic
2/5 We live in a world of multilayered volatility—whether it's extreme weather, climate change, or geopolitical disturbance—Industrial AI can improve resilience. + real time data, they can help predict & mitigate disruption from pandemics, inflation, unexpected events...